Dynasty Shopping Mall - Week 8

Posted 10/24 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Just like any other shopping mall, this will have different products at different levels of quality and price. We will shop around at different stores like Bloomingdales, Macy's, Sears, even the Dollar Store and look for products to buy. The focus will be on value. Many times the expensive products are worth the price. Some times they are not. We will examine opportunities to buy at a reasonable price compared to value. The products we are purchasing are fantasy players for our dynasty team.

This week, we will look at underperforming and undervalued quarterbacks. This may be strictly due to performance or because of injury. This has been an odd season for quarterbacks. Many have been injured. Only the top passers, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Tony Romo have exceeded the expectations for the season. Yes, Jon Kitna and Brett Favre are playing very well, but they are not going to be long-term options for fantasy owners. Since we are looking for opportunities to buy low for the future, these aging veterans are not viable options. But, with the ineffectiveness and injuries, this is a great time to buy low on a passer to be the fantasy quarterback for your dynasty team for a long time.

Drew Brees

The former San Diego Charger was an elite passer the 2006 season. He came to the Saints after finding success in San Diego. Brees had shoulder issues in 2005 and the 2006 offseason leading many teams to pass on his services. But, last season, Brees was awesome. He was very efficient and found his receivers in rhythm where they needed the ball. The emergence of Marques Colston enabled the Saints to trade Donte Stallworth to the Eagles. But, this season has been another story. The Saints are anxiously waiting for a pass catcher, other than Colston, to step up and make plays. Devery Henderson has issues with dropped passes and is not able to get open consistently. Terrence Copper is not effective. Rookie Robert Meachem had a knee injury and is progressing. But, Meachem has disappointed with his work ethic and effort. Lance Moore is the surprising and making a play for more game time, but it is by default from the weakness of the position. Through the first four games for Brees, and the Saints, the five-year pro had just one touchdown pass and nine interceptions. He has rebounded with a couple decent games in a row now and could be turning the corner.

Outlook: The Saint offense has looked out of synch for most of the season. Another knee injury to Deuce McAllister has made the offense even more reliant on Drew Brees and Reggie Bush. Drew Brees seems hesitant to throw the ball deep down the field as he did last season. Marques Colston seems a step slower than as a rookie, and may be injured. Brees is still fairly young and has a bright future.
Store: Barney's
Price: A package including a 2008 1st and a good prospect
Recommendation: If you are still a believer in Brees and are in rebuilding mode, Drew Brees is a perfect buy low candidate. The issues with the Saint offense should be remedied by later this year or at least by the 2008 season. The former Purdue Boilermaker may not have good numbers this season, but is a great candidate to rebound for next season.

Marc Bulger

With the injuries to the Ram offensive line, especially Orlando Pace, Marc Bulger has been taking a lot of shots. He has endured knee and rib injuries this season. Through the first four games of the season, the former West Virginia Mountaineer had just two touchdown passes and four interceptions. The injury to stud running back, Steven Jackson, has made it easier for defenses to concentrate just on the passing game. Bulger was blitzed a ton in the third and fourth games, when he was playing through the injuries. In those four games, the 30 year-old averaged just 5.8 yards per pass attempt compared to 7.3 in 2006. Also, Bulger was averaging less than 200 passing yards a game for those four games. He was off to an ugly start to the season, like the rest of the Rams.

Outlook: The Ram offense is in a world of hurt in 2007. Injuries are mounting and the entire team is not playing well. The offense does not have the explosion many expect from a Saint Louis Ram offense. But, no matter how bad things are this season, Bulger and the Rams should be much better in 2008.
Store: Barney's
Price: A package including a 2008 1st round pick and a good prospect
Recommendation: Let someone else overpay. This is not the situation it once was with the aging of the Rams' receivers. Torry Holt (31) and Isaac Bruce (34) are getting older. The offensive line, especially Orlando Pace, needs to get healthy. This just smells of a team in transition.

Alex Smith

Alex Smith was the top overall pick in the 2005 NFL Draft. He has been a mild disappointment so far in his young career. In the three full games before injuring his shoulder, the former Utah star was not playing well at all. Two of those games saw Smith have exactly 126 passing yards and no touchdown passes. This is not what fantasy owners expected for Alex Smith and the San Francisco passing game. They traded for veteran receiver, Darrell Jackson, in the offseason, and thought the former Gator would provide a much-needed spark. Also, Jason Hill was drafted to give Smith another weapon. Vernon Davis has missed a few games due to injury. The passing game has not been effective. To make matters worse, Frank Gore has not played up to the level many expected after his record-setting 2006 season. He has been ineffective as well. The entire offense has not lived up to expectations.

Outlook: Alex Smith is still just 23 years old. There is time for him to turn his career around. But, it does not look good at this time. He might need a change of scenery to take a step forward in his development. When Smith was drafted, many thought it would be difficult for him to transition to the NFL from the Utah offense, tutored by coach Meyer. Maybe they were right.
Store: The Gap
Price: A package including a 2008 1st round draft pick and a good prospect
Recommendation: Let someone else take the risk. Passers with better production and upside are available for a similar price. Smith has the look of either a low-end starter or career backup.

Vince Young

The former Texas Longhorn had a phenomenal rookie season. He is a legitimate threat passing and running the ball. The second-year pro had over 550 yards and seven scores on the ground as a rookie in fifteen games. Young benefits from having a great offensive coordinator in Norm Chow who knows how to best utilize the skills of the Madden coverboy. The Titans have few weapons for Young to target in the passing game. The Titans lost their three top receivers from the 2006 season. The top pass catchers are players that would be backups on many other NFL teams. Young's favorite target is longtime teammate, Bo Scaife.

Outlook: The Titans are a team on the rise with a good young defense and balanced running game. The Titans drafted Chris Henry to shore up the running game, but he was not active on gameday until this past week. By the 2008 season, the Titans need to give Vince Young some better targets. This sounds like a reoccurring theme.
Store: Barney's
Price: A package including multiple 2008 1sts and a good prospect
Recommendation: Buy. Vince Young is still young and has tons of room to grow and mature. He has not had a particularly good 2007 season, but this should provide an opportunity to buy low. The 6'5", 233-pound quarterback is only 24 years old and should get better as the years go by. But, one caution would be that he is a better NFL quarterback than fantasy. Until Young can score touchdowns in droves, like traditional passers, there will be a limit to the potential of Vince Young.

Jake Delhomme

The 32 year-old from Louisiana-Lafayette had a nasty elbow injury to end his 2007 season. It looked like the type of injury that has ruined the careers of many baseball players. Delhomme was having a great start to the season. He was hooking up with Steve Smith early and often. The Panthers have to rely on David Carr and Vinny Testaverde for the rest of the season. Delhomme had eight passing touchdowns and only one interception through the first three games. He was on fire.

Outlook: The Panthers drafted Dwayne Jarrett to help the passing game out, but he has disappointed so far this season. Kerry Colbert and Drew Carter are not viable options for any passing game. Carter should be with a different team in 2008. The Cajun passer is a competitor and will work hard to come back as soon as possible after the elbow surgery.
Store: T.J. Maxx
Price: A package including a 2008 2nd round draft pick and a prospect
Recommendation: Like most products at T.J. Maxx, which are of good quality but with a flaw, Delhomme is cheap because of his elbow injury. He might be a buy low if you have a fantasy team needing a veteran passer on the bench. Delhomme, if recovered, has at least a couple of good years left. He showed this season that he could still produce at a high level. He represents a great chance to buy low. But, elbow injuries are scary for quarterbacks. The surgery will include replacing a ligament in his elbow. Ouch. So, there is risk in acquiring Delhomme for the future. So, if you buy, buy as cheap as possible.

Matt Leinart

The former USC Trojan was touted as a true stud coming into the NFL. He was selected with the tenth overall pick in the 2006 NFL Draft. This was a tough season for Leinart. He was pulled from two games for veteran, Kurt Warner, before breaking his collarbone. Leinart had high expectations coming into the 2007 with star receivers, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. But, the coaching staff seemed to lose confidence in the second-year pro early on due to the poor decision-making. Before injury, Leinart had four interceptions compared to only two passing touchdowns. Also, his passing efficiency was way down, completing only 60 of 112 passes, and averaging a mere 5.8 yards per pass attempt (YPA). For comparison, he averaged 6.8 YPA as a rookie.

Outlook: The Arizona Cardinals brought in a new coaching staff for the 2007 season. Coach Ken Whisenhunt came over from the Pittsburgh Steelers, and brought with him offensive line specialist, Russ Grimm. They installed a run-oriented offense, centered on Edgerrin James. This was a complete change from pass-happy Dennis Green. The new offense should help passing efficiency in future years with a strong play action pass from the running game.
Store: Macy's
Price: A package including a 2008 1st draft pick and a good prospect
Recommendation: Let someone else overpay for the former Trojan. Even though the injury is one that he will easily be able to recover from, it will prove difficult for the 24 year-old to rebound and show the coaches that he should be relied upon. He lost their support so soon. It was the third game when Kurt Warner started coming in for relief of the two year pro. That will be a steep obstacle to overcome. His owners will not let him go cheap and he is not worth the price, unless you can buy at a very cheap price. The potential just is not there, even with those great receivers.

This is the time of the season to start thinking about the 2008 season. Players that should be targeted now are ones that will be worth considerably more in the offseason. Drew Brees, Vince Young, and Matt Leinart should see their value rise in the offseason. This could be the cheapest time to acquire these passers if you believe in their talent. I will throw out a couple more names not listed above. The rookie quarterbacks that have not played might also be good options at this time. JaMarcus Russell is sitting behind Daunte Culpepper in an Oakland offense that is struggling. Russell might see the field in the last few games so the Raiders will know whether to re-sign Culpepper. Brady Quinn was drafted to supplant Derek Anderson, but the veteran from Oregon State has played very well. One other passer to consider is Kevin Kolb. He plays behind the oft-injured Donovan McNabb. Each of these three quarterbacks will get their chance sooner or later. But, this might be the ideal time to buy. Some owners of rookies give up on them way too soon making these good players available at a discounted price.