Dynasty Shopping Mall - Week 6

Posted 10/10 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Just like any other shopping mall, this will have different products at different levels of quality and price. We will shop around at different stores like Bloomingdales, Macy's, Sears, even the Dollar Store and look for products to buy. The focus will be on value. Many times the expensive products are worth the price. Some times they are not. We will examine opportunities to buy at a reasonable price compared to value. The products we are purchasing are fantasy players for our dynasty team.

This week, we will look at players available on the waiver wire of many leagues. Some of these players will be longshots to ever produce. But, the one criteria used is Startability. A player that has no chance to start for your fantasy team has no business being on your fantasy team. This means that a player with high upside and a small chance of connecting is a better use of the roster space than a player that is a decent football player but is not good enough as fantasy player to start for your team. If you have a team with three or four strong receivers, a player like Mike Walker is worth more than Joe Jurevicius. No way will Jurevicius ever make it into your fantasy lineup so might as well take the chance on Walker being a stud for next year. We covered Walker last week while examining buying injured players low. It is understood that every league is different and every team in each league will have different needs. Some leagues are deep so even players that are not good fantasy options are rostered. And, some leagues are so shallow that the waiver wire is littered with very good options. But, in general, most dynasty fantasy leagues, around 300 players are rostered.

Ryan Grant

The rookie running back from Notre Dame played great in the preseason for the New York Giants. He was traded to the Green Bay Packers right before the beginning of the season for a sixth round pick in the 2008 NFL Draft. The Packers are very high on the former Golden Domer. He has shown flashes of potential in the few touches so far.

Outlook: The Packer running game is in shambles. They play a tough run schedule. In addition, Packers coach Mike McCarthy laughed when asked who his starting running back will be against the Vikings in Week 4. "We don't have a starter," McCarthy said. "We're a running back by committee team, and I foresee us being that way every week." With three of the four Packer backs being rookies, the backfield is crowded. With the ineffective running game, the Packer offense is relying heavily on the arm of Brett Favre in 2007. Next year should be a different story however.
Store: Dollar Store
Price: Waiver Wire in most leagues
Recommendation: Grant looks to have potential. The chances are slim that he will produce huge fantasy numbers in 2007 with the crowded backfield and the run-pass ratio employed by the Packers. But, if you have an extra spot on your roster for a ball carrier with potential, you might consider Ryan Grant.

Antonio Pittman

The former Buckeye has been a disappointment so far in his young career. He expected to be drafted in the first two rounds of the 2007 NFL Draft. But, he fell all of the way to the second day (fourth round). To make matters worse, the rookie from Ohio State was released in preseason from the New Orleans Saints. He was beat out by unknown Pierre Thomas. Pittman then signed with the St. Louis Rams to play behind Steven Jackson and Brian Leonard.

Outlook: Steven Jackson has an injured groin and should be out for a few weeks. Pittman, with Leonard as the primary ball carrier, needs to do something with the few touches he will get in Jackson's absence.
Store: Dollar Store
Price: Waiver Wire in many leagues
Recommendation: Even though I was very high on Pittman coming into the NFL, he needs to prove he belongs in the NFL. He displayed great toughness and vision in college, but has disappointed so far. At this time, let someone else waste a roster spot on the former Ohio State Buckeye. It will be another year before has a real chance to prove himself. His upside is not high enough to roster for that length of time.

Ricky Williams

The former Texas Longhorn has been in and out of trouble with the NFL throughout the last few years. Commissioner Roger Goodell has been strict about keeping a tight reign on discipline issues. Ricky could be a great low risk, high reward option for many fantasy teams.

Outlook: The current Dolphin has applied for reinstatement and will hopefully find out the ruling later this month. If he can come back and play, there is little chance the Dolphins will want him back with the new coaching staff, led by Cam Cameron.
Store: Dollar Tree
Price: Waiver Wire in most leagues
Recommendation: If you have a roster spot open that you can afford, take a chance on Ricky he could pay off in a huge way. Also, Ricky will find out relatively soon whether he can come back to the NFL. It might be a longshot, but the reward is high… pun intended.

Najeh Davenport

The veteran running back from Miami is in his second season with the Pittsburgh Steelers. The former Packer has been nicked up for much of his six-year career. But, as the backup to Willie Parker in the new Steeler offense, Davenport has played well. In week five, Davenport seven carries for 58 yards and a pair of scores. He has a season total of 275 total yards and three touchdowns. Make no mistake, Najeh Davenport has looked good as Willie Parker's back up.

Outlook: For a back of Davenport's size, he is surprisingly not good at short yardage situations. Even though the former Hurricane plays at almost 250 pounds, he plays more like a smaller back. He is a good receiver and has deceptive speed. He has played surprisingly well so far in 2007.
Store: Dollar Tree
Price: Waiver Wire in most leagues
Recommendation: The player most known for an off of the field incident at Miami is a decent handcuff for Willie Parker owners. But, he still needs to prove he can stay healthy. There is doubt that Davenport could hold up physically if he was called on to be the primary ball carrier in the even of a Willie Parker injury. If you are not a Parker owner, it is acceptable to go ahead and dump Davenport in shallow leagues. In deeper leagues, the six-year veteran is playing well enough to roster. His value could go sky high, even with the injury history, if there is an injury to Willie Parker.

Lance Moore

The smallish receiver from Toledo is turning heads in New Orleans. Many thought of him as purely a return specialist. But the 5'9", 177-pound receiver has been the Saints' second best receiver so far in the young season. Devery Henderson, Terrance Copper, and Robert Meachem are all competing with the speedy Moore to be the WR2 for New Orleans.

Outlook: With the loss of Joe Horn in the offseason, the Saints need another pass catcher to step up and Moore is doing just that. He came out of nowhere this preseason and is asserting himself into the starting lineup.
Store: Dollar Store
Price: Waiver Wire in many leagues
Recommendation: Moore is a playmaker for the Saints. His potential is probably just for 2007. By 2008, Meachem should be in the starting lineup and Moore in the slot. He will still be able to make plays, but not the opportunity he currently presents.

Steve Heiden

His name is familiar to very few fantasy footballers. But, the veteran tight end has averaged approximately two and a half receptions per game over the last two years. I am sure that surprises many fantasy owners, even experienced ones.

Outlook: The healthy of starter, Kellen Winslow, is a major concern at this time. The Browns' offense is void of receiving threats. In addition, the tight end position is a major part of the Cleveland Brown offense. Heiden would vault into instant fantasy viability if Winslow misses extended time.
Store: Dollar Store
Price: Waiver wire pick up
Recommendation: Keep an eye on the Winslow injury situation. If it starts looking like "the soldier" will miss significant time, then consider picking up Heiden.

These are all situations to monitor with Ryan Grant, Ricky Williams, and Steve Heiden having the most long-range fantasy potential. Moore and Davenport are decent fantasy backups but offer limited upside for 2008 and beyond.