Dynasty Shopping Mall - Week 4

Posted 9/26 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Just like any other shopping mall, this will have different products at different levels of quality and price. We will shop around at different stores like Bloomingdales, Macy's, Sears, even the Dollar Store and look for products to buy. The focus will be on value. Many times the expensive products are worth the price. Some times they are not. We will examine opportunities to buy at a reasonable price compared to value. The products we are purchasing are fantasy players for our dynasty team.

This week we will take a look at WR3 position for NFL teams that might provide value. Some of these receivers will offer value to fantasy owners due to currently getting targets as a slot receiver and some might be great wideouts to stash on the bench for upside. All of these pass catchers will be relatively inexpensive, but fantasy rosters are confined for space and choices have to be made for roster management.

One rule I have for dynasty leagues is that I do not want to roster a player that I would not insert into my starting lineup under any circumstances. This means that even though a player may be a decent NFL player, if he is not startable for my fantasy team, I might as well roster a player that can be startable. Startability, if that is a word, is determined by talent and situation.

Wes Welker

The former Texas Tech Red Raider just signed with the Patriots this offseason after beginning his career in Miami. Welker is very underrated as a NFL player. Leagues that offer points per reception scoring are where Welker offers the most value. He is in the top of the NFL in catches so far in this young season. Fantasy leagues are all different sizes with differing roster sizes. The question has to be asked whether Welker is startable for your fantasy team. In leagues that start over forty wideouts a week, especially with PPR, the former Dolphin is roster and starter worthy. Also, Welker's value increases in leagues that offer scoring for kickoff and punt returns.

Outlook: Welker will probably always be a slot receiver making the tough catch. He is now in a pass-heavy offense that spreads the ball around. But, he will never be a must start for fantasy teams. Tom Brady is really looking to Welker for the tough catch and the former Dolphin is making the most of it.
Store: Dollar Store
Price: Waiver Wire or very cheap in most leagues
Recommendation: Buy if you have the roster space and need a flex or spot starter in large or PPR leagues. He is the perfect complement to Randy Moss and Donte Stallworth. With Moss playing so well, Welker is having a ton of room to roam. Wes is having a great start to the season. He has been a very good receiver in PPR leagues so far and expect that to continue.

Mike Furrey

Furrey showed what he could do last year when given the opportunity. The former Ram is experienced in the Mike Martz offense. This season, Furrey will be working as the WR3 for the Lions and it is probably his strongest suit. But the thing we know about Furrey is his upside. He proved what he could do last year. The Lions drafted Calvin Johnson in the 1st round of the 2007 NFL draft to be the complement to Roy Williams. But, it means Furrey will have plenty of room to roam in the middle of the field. If there is a long term injury to either Williams or Johnson, Furrey should be even more productive.

Outlook: Furrey looks to be the WR3 for the Lions unless there is an injury to Williams or Johnson. He has no chance of winning one of their jobs.
Store: Dollar Store
Price: Waiver Wire or cheap in many leagues
Recommendation: Buy if you have the roster space. Furrey has much more value in PPR leagues because he catches a lot of the over-the-middle passes. With the number of passes the Lions attempt each game, Furrey is an ideal bench receiver who can start due to injury or bye week needs.

Bryant Johnson

Johnson is usually thought to be full of potential. But, he has not seized the opportunities he has been given when either Fitzgerald or Boldin were injured. Bryant Johnson was drafted in the first round as a receiver who is big and fast. He is a great athlete. But, the former Nittany Lion has been very inconsistent catching the ball.

Outlook: Bryant Johnson will be an unrestricted free agent this coming offseason. He will get a chance to prove himself for a new team in 2008. But, few situations will be as good as he has in Arizona.
Store: Dollar Store
Price: Waiver Wire in most leagues
Recommendation: Let someone else roster Johnson. He is not startable under almost any league's rules.

Jason Avant

The former Michigan Wolverine played very well in preseason and overtook Hank Baskett as the Eagle WR3. He followed that up with a good game in the season opener. Avant is a very good possession receiver.

Outlook: Jason Avant is still learning the NFL game and will continue to improve as he matures. He many never be a true WR1 or WR2 for fantasy teams, but might be a good bench receivers for fantasy teams.
Store: Dollar Store
Price: Waiver Wire in most leagues
Recommendation: Buy if you have the roster space. The Eagles throw the ball a lot and Avant will see action this season. He caught a TD pass in the season opener and Donovan McNabb looked to him often when he needed a clutch pass reception. In week two against the Redskins on Monday Night Football, Avant was once again the Eagles' leading receiver. For a pass catcher that was thought to be primarily a kick and punt returner in the NFL, Avant has really surprised. The injury to L.J. Smith carrying into the season, and the ineffectiveness of Reggie Brown has led to many more looks for the second-year pro.

Demetrius Williams

The former Oregon Duck is a playmaker. He will be starting for the Ravens by 2008. Williams averaged 18 yards per catch as a rookie. That is impressive. The second-year pro should improve this season with another season under the tutelage of Derrick Mason and Steve McNair. Expect Williams to have a good season this year and his value will be through the roof next offseason.

Outlook: Demetrius Williams will get plenty of targets this season. When Mark Clayton gets healthy, many presume Williams will start at wideout and Mason will move to the slot.
Store: The Gap
Price: 2008 2nd round pick
Recommendation: Buy if you are a believer. He has tremendous potential and could be a star in the NFL.

Mark Bradley

Bradley has been saddled with injuries throughout his short career. The former Oklahoma Sooner is a great athlete with great speed. Since starting Bears' receiver Bernard Berrian is a free agent next offseason, Bradley could look to step into the void starting across from Muhsin Muhammad. Coach Lovie Smith has stated that Bradley is buried on the depth chart, but that is more of a formality. Bradley's value is his upside playing wide receiver while Davis is the slot (true WR3) receiver.

Outlook: Bradley is a great deep threat for the Bears and is a good weapon for the strong-armed Rex Grossman. If he can stay healthy, Bradley could be a fantasy force in 2008. He has pined for more playing time, but Lovie Smith rebuffed the thought meaning Bradley needs to work hard to earn more playing time.
Store: Dollar Store
Price: Waiver Wire in most leagues
Recommendation: Buy if you have the roster space and can take a chance until 2008.

Chris Henry

Chris Henry has a load of talent. He might be one of the most talented receivers in the NFL. It is a shame he cannot stay out of trouble. Henry is serving an eight game suspension this year and is on notice that any further trouble might be the end of his career. But, the former Mountaineer showed his prowess in preseason. Many thought it was the situation, Bengal WR3, which made Henry. But, in all reality, it is Henry that made that position valuable. The guy is a stud on the field. His value goes sky high if either Johnson or Houshmandzadeh is injured or leaves via free agency.

Outlook: Henry had nine touchdowns in 2006. He has plenty of room to roam with the defense focused intently on Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. To the surprise of many, Chris Henry is only 24 years old and is at the beginning of his career … as long as he can stay out of trouble.
Store: TJ Maxx
Price: 2008 2nd round pick or 2008 3rd round pick and a prospect
Recommendation: Buy, Buy, Buy. This is the time to buy Henry low on the hopes he can make smart decisions off of the playing field. Henry is the perfect TJ Maxx analogy. He is a brand name, high quality player that is discounted due to his situation. Keep a close eye on his issue with a rental car that was reported last week. Any hint of additional legal problems for Henry is not a good thing at all.

In dynasty leagues, the WR3 position many times offers upside for the future in case of injury or the starter leaving in free agency. Also, a couple of the above WR3 receivers offer the ability to overtake one of the starters. The recommendation would be to buy Chris Henry, Jason Avant or Demetrius Williams low, if you believe in either. Also, consider one of the waiver wire receivers for depth on your fantasy team.