Dynasty Shopping Mall - Week 3

Posted 9/19 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Just like any other shopping mall, this will have different products at different levels of quality and price. We will shop around at different stores like Bloomingdales, Macy's, Sears, even the Dollar Store and look for products to buy. The focus will be on value. Many times the expensive products are worth the price. Some times they are not. We will examine opportunities to buy at a reasonable price compared to value. The products we are purchasing are fantasy players for our dynasty team.

The focus of the shopping trip this week will be on examining back up quarterbacks that could have a fantasy impact in 2007. In 2006, there were several reserve passers that came into prominence and became good fantasy options. Some of the factors that led to the emergence of these quarterbacks were:

Young reserve behind an aging former star quarterback (e.g. Drew Bledsoe, Kurt Warner, Brad Johnson, Jake Plummer, Kerry Collins, and Trent Green).
Talented reserve in a situation less settled than many realize (e.g. Frye/Anderson and Brooks/Walter)
Talented back up behind an injury-prone starter (e.g. Donovan McNabb, Byron Leftwich, Chris Simms, Daunte Culpepper, and Mark Brunell).

The above situations took many fantasy owners off guard. But, when we look back on things, we see the outcomes as obvious. This happens each and every year.

All of these situations are fluid and need monitoring. There will also be outside factors like freak injuries, win/loss record and even the signing of Byron Leftwich that will affect some of these opportunities. Below are a few situations to keep a close eye on with the goal being to buy before the situation becomes obvious to everyone. I picked up Tony Romo last preseason and then rode him into the playoffs. There will be another Tony Romo this year. The key is timing. Some of these quarterbacks are available on the waiver wire in most leagues and some will need to be acquired via trade.

Kyle Boller

Steve McNair is getting up there in age. He is one tough quarterback and has taken more than his share of punishment over the years. Boller even started this past week versus the Jets and played well. But, McNair will start when healthy. The Ravens drafted the Heisman Trophy winner, Troy Smith, to replace the aging veteran. They even said publicly that they were fine letting Boller leave via free agency in 2008. But, after the preseason of Smith, word is coming out that the Ravens contacted Boller about a contract extension. They two sides reached a one-year contract extension a few weeks ago. Boller is known for his strong arm and could be a good fantasy quarterback if given the opportunity. Many are now speculating that by Boller signing the extension, even though he would have been a hot item on the free agent market, signifies that McNair might not be with the team in 2008.

Outlook: The former first round pick from California could be in a great situation. The Ravens have two young receivers who are full of potential, Mark Clayton and Demetrius Williams, along with veteran Derrick Mason. Plus a young running back (Willis McGahee) and young stud tight end (Todd Heap).
Store: Dollar Store
Price: Waiver Wire
Recommendation: Buy if you have the roster space. Boller has already played some this year and probably will again. We just do not know when or how much.

Quinn Gray

Gray is a free agent in 2008. He is a gifted athlete that is a threat to run and to pass. The Jacksonville offense is in a state of flux and transition. Gray is a player who epitomizes the word "potential". He is a player who could lead a fantasy team to the title if given the chance.

Outlook: Gray came into the final game of the season in 2006, replacing David Garrard, and had a standout performance.
Store: Dollar Store
Price: Waiver Wire in most leagues
Recommendation: Buy if you have the roster space. David Garrard was pulled in favor of Gray in one game last season and it could happen again.

A.J. Feeley/Kevin Kolb

Donovan McNabb is quickly earning the label of "injury-prone". Last year, Jeff Garcia proved that the Eagles' quarterback position could be gold for fantasy owners. In Cleveland, Garcia struggled. But, when he took over in Philadelphia, he looked like the Garcia in San Francisco. If something happened to McNabb, Feeley should get the first shot at the job if he is healthy.

Outlook: There are rumors that this might be Donovan McNabb's last season in Philadelphia and Kolb was brought in to be the long-term answer.
Store: Old Navy
Price: Waiver Wire for Feeley and 2008 2nd round pick for Kolb
Recommendation: If you are of the belief that Donovan McNabb is injury-prone, or might not be back with the Eagles in 2008, the smart play is to pay the price for Kolb and pick Feeley off of the Waiver Wire. This way, you have the long-term quarterback for the pass-happy Eagles locked up at a very inexperienced price.

Kellen Clemens

Kellen Clemens had the opportunity to start for this week, maybe more, due to an injury to starter, Chad Pennington. Clemens played pretty well against the Baltimore Ravens. The former Oregonian normally backs up a quarterback who had a poor preseason and is not known for his arm strength. Pennington's preseason performance versus the Minnesota Vikings led many Jets fans to start calling for Clemens to start. Clemens looked good in preseason with a strong arm and more poise than was shown in 2006.

Outlook: Clemens may get to start a couple games while Pennington recovers from his ankle injury. The Jet offense is built around Thomas Jones and the two receivers, Coles and Cotchery. The team does not have an abundance of offensive weapons. This is one reason many are predicting an early season Clemens appearance.
Store: The Gap
Price: 2008 2nd or good prospect
Recommendation: Like the Gap, Clemens is a trendy fantasy pick up right now with the Pennington injury. The price is too high at this time. Even if Clemens gets a long-term opportunity, he is far from a guaranteed fantasy success. If you are a Clemens believer, wait until Pennington comes back and starts before pursuing Clemens. Since he is starting, the price tag will be way too high at this time.

Cleo Lemon/John Beck

The thirty-seven year old, Trent Green, is on his last leg. He suffered a vicious hit last year as a Chief. He was not the same player afterward. Now, he is with the Miami Dolphins behind a porous offensive line. The Dolphins have Lemon and Beck backing up Green. Lemon is the favorite to play if Green is hurt during the year and Beck is the long-term answer in the minds of the Dolphins.

Outlook: If Green is ineffective or injured, both likely, Cleo Lemon should get the first shot at being the Dolphin quarterback. His mobility will be needed behind such a poor offensive line. John Beck is the passer of the future. Each had a good preseason and could be viable QB2s for fantasy teams.
Store: Sears
Price: Waiver Wire for Lemon and 2008 2nd for Beck
Recommendation: In deep leagues, Lemon is a good quarterback to have on your roster. He is worth the waiver pick up. As with most rookie passers, it is way too early to know much on Beck so I would hold off for now.

J.T. O'Sullivan/Dan Orlovsky

Neither of these passers looks attractive on their own merits. But, the Lions' quarterback, with Mike Martz as offensive coordinator, makes either instant viable for fantasy owners. O'Sullivan has bounced around several NFL teams and had a good season in NFL Europa. Orlovsky is entering his second season for the Lions after being drafted out of UConn. They play behind the aging, Jon Kitna. As with all quarterbacks in a Martz system, Kitna took a bunch of big hits in 2006 and showed his age not being able to elude the pressure. Kitna is a reasonable injury risk. As of now, O'Sullivan is the back up quarterback with Orlovsky struggling to get and stay healthy. J.T. played a little this week versus the Minnesota Vikings while Jon Kitna was being looked at for a concussion. He did not play especially great. This is a situation to monitor.

Outlook: Kitna does not have many years left and one of these two might be the heir apparent to the attractive job as the Lions' starting quarterback.
Store: Dollar Store
Price: Waiver Wire
Recommendation: If you have the roster space and want to take a shot at potential, pick up whichever one of these two is listed as the true backup as the season progresses.

Most dynasty owners have strong feelings one way or another about most of these situations. Things always change in the NFL, faster than we realize. The savvy fantasy owner stays one step ahead. The recommendation as a whole would be to try and free up at least one roster spot on your dynasty team for the quarterbacks listed above.