Dynasty Shopping Mall - Week 2

Posted 9/12 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Just like any other shopping mall, this will have different products at different levels of quality and price. We will shop around at different stores like Bloomingdales, Macy's, Sears, even the Dollar Store and look for products to buy. The focus will be on value. Many times the expensive products are worth the price. Some times they are not. We will examine opportunities to buy at a reasonable price compared to value. The products we are purchasing are fantasy players for our dynasty team.

With one week under out belt, the focus goes from the rookies and prospects, many of which showcased in the preseason and during training camp, to the veterans. The season is upon us and these rookies are now left to fight for playing time and playing on special teams. This week, we will take a closer look at some rookie wide receivers drafted with high expectations by many dynasty owners. This is the time of year that the price for these receivers is much lower than it was a few weeks ago. These rookie pass catchers are now an afterthought by many fantasy owners. Also, most rookie wideouts take a few years to develop so the pay off for drafting or trading for a rookie receiver is usually not immediate. The following are a few talented rookie wide receivers that are currently being undervalued by fantasy owners due to their short-term situation:

Dwayne Bowe

The rookie from LSU was heralded by many predraft as a top NFL and fantasy prospect. Bowe was to have the best skills that will translate immediately to the NFL of any rookie receiver outside of Calvin Johnson. But, Dwayne was drafted into a difficult situation for any rookie receiver to flourish. The former Bayou Tiger's skill set translates more as a possession receiver than a true playmaking WR1 in the NFL. Bowe should still be productive.

Outlook: The Chief offense is centered on Larry Johnson. Head coach, Herm Edwards, is very conservative in his play calling. The quarterback position is unsettled to say the least. Eddie Kennison, who is the unquestioned WR1 for the Chiefs, was nicked this week and could provide more opportunity for Bowe. Tony Gonzalez is a huge receiving threat at tight end. When Kennison is back healthy, there is little opportunity for a good season by WR2 in the Chief offense. Samie Parker started the first game as the receiver opposite Kennison. But, the savvy dynasty owner sees this as opportunity. Many of these factors will change in the next two years leaving Bowe as the unquestioned WR1. Coach Edwards will not be around long after another poor season in 2007, which is a probability. Kennison is 34 years old and on the decline. The quarterback situation will improve. It has to. The position cannot get much worse for a fantasy receiver. The Chiefs of 2009 will look much different than the Chiefs of 2007.
Store: Bloomingdales
Price: 2008 1st
Recommendation: The current price is too high. Wait until midseason and Bowe is getting no action. Then try to buy low. At present, his fantasy owners still remember paying a high or middle first round rookie pick on Bowe. It will not take long for many of the Bowe owners to give up on him. He should be worth a 2008 2nd and a decent prospect come midseason. Then pounce. Bowe has a chance to be a solid receiver for many years to come.

Dwayne Jarrett

The rookie from USC is a good NFL prospect. He is good enough that Keyshawn Johnson was released soon after Jarrett was drafted. Dwayne Jarrett should be an ideal complement to Steve Smith. The former Trojan is a big, strong possession receiver that made great catches at the college level.

Outlook: At present, Jarrett is buried on the depth chart behind veterans Kerry Colbert and Drew Carter and was even deactivated this past weekend. Carter will be an unrestricted free agent in 2008 so he is likely gone from Carolina. Neither wideout in front of the rookie has near the talent that Jarrett offers. He should be starting by midseason.
Store: Macy's
Price: 2008 1st or package of 2008 2nd and a prospect.
Recommendation: Buy as soon as possible if you are a believer. This might be the cheapest you can get Jarrett. Try not to pay the price of a 2008 1st pick, rather a package of a 2008 2nd and a good prospect. Look to pay clearance price.

Sydney Rice

Sydney Rice joins former Gamecock receiver, Troy Williamson, in the Twin Cities. The Vikings drafted Adrian Peterson to be the primary ball carrier in a conservative, run-oriented offense. The Vikings are relying on young Tarvaris Jackson to be their quarterback. This will be an ugly season for fantasy owners of any Vikings other than Peterson, and maybe Chester Taylor.

Outlook: This looks to be a tough year for any Viking receiver to produce any fantasy numbers, much less a rookie who is not starting. The Vikings brought in veteran wideouts, Bobby Wade and Robert Ferguson, to play across from Williamson. Rice came out of college as a redshirt sophomore. He was one player who might have benefited from staying in school one more year and developing his craft a little more. No matter who is starting at receiver in Minnesota, the outlook does not look good this season.
Store: Bloomingdales
Price: 2008 1st round pick or a 2008 2nd and a good prospect.
Recommendation: The Viking offense will progress some as the young quarterback matures, but this will be an ugly season full of growing pains for all members of the Viking passing game. The time to buy Rice has not come. Rice looks to have loads of potential but it is difficult to determine whether Rice's talent will translate to the NFL. Wait until midseason, at the earliest, and then look to buy at a clearance price if you are a believer. The optimal time to buy Rice might be next offseason. With all rookie receivers, patience is a virtue.

Jason Hill

Jason Hill was a very productive receiver while at Washington State. He averaged a touchdown reception for every collegiate game he caught a pass. Hill even quieted his critics by posting a very fast 40-yard dash time at the NFL combine. The rookie was injured during much of camp and preseason and is an afterthought for many fantasy owners at this time.

Outlook: The Forty-Niners look to have lots of receiver depth. Hill is listed as the WR5 on the depth chart. But, this is misleading. The top three wideouts for the team have all been very injury-prone over their careers, Darrell Jackson, Arnaz Battle, and Ashley Lelie. Hill could get an opportunity much sooner than most realize.
Store: Dollar Store
Price: 2008 2nd round pick or 2008 3rd and an average prospect.
Recommendation: So far, some fantasy owners have dropped Jason Hill. This is your chance to buy him low. He is a talented rookie receiver that can be a NFL playmaking wideout. Buy, Buy, Buy.

Steve Smith

Known as "the other Steve Smith" by many fantasy owners, Smith is a very good NFL prospect. The Giant offense is in a state of flux with the Tiki retirement, Amani Toomer's age and dependence on Eli Manning to make plays in Tom Coughlin's conservative offense. But, with Toomer's age and injury issues, Steve Smith could be a starting wideout for the Giants by midseason. The Giants recognized the need for another playmaking receiver in 2006 and drafted Sinorice Moss. But, Moss has been a disappointment. Steve Smith may not be the type of playmaker as his namesake, but he will make clutch catches and is the dependable possession receiver that an oft-rattled Eli Manning will need.

Outlook: The Giants' offense will look much different in 2008 than in 2007. Amani Toomer will be on the decline. Coach Coughlin, and his conservative offense, should be gone. Eli Manning will have had another season to mature.
Store: The Gap
Price: 2008 2nd round pick or a good prospect
Recommendation: Buy if you think you will have a late 2008 2nd round pick and want a good pass catcher for the future. Granted, Smith will never produce fantasy numbers to the level of the elite receivers, but he should enjoy many seasons of decent WR3 or WR4 level production.

With the tremendous buzz surrounding Calvin Johnson, James Jones, and Jacoby Jones, some of the above rookie receivers are seriously undervalued. Some of the above receivers will get cheaper as the season progresses. But, the thing to remember is that the payoff for acquiring a rookie pass catcher should come in a year or two. Most are undervalued due to the situation, not talent. Situations change, talent remains the same sans injury. Robert Meachem was omitted purposely because his talent is in question. He is fast and in a good situation. Many overvalue him for the situation and do not examine his talent.

If you have the assets to go out and procure a rookie receiver to develop on your bench, the recommendation is to acquire Dwayne Jarrett and Steve Smith as soon as possible. Look for Jason Hill to be dropped and scoop him up. Hill's owners will start to give up on him soon enough. It is too soon to look to trade for Bowe or Rice. Neither will be productive in 2007. The time to buy each will come as the season rolls along.

This will be a weekly feature discussing different groups of players that affect most dynasty owners. Please shoot me an e-mail if you have any questions, comments, or other segments of players you want to see discussed.