Dynasty Shopping Mall - Week 15

Posted 12/12 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Just like any other shopping mall, this will have different products at different levels of quality and price. We will shop around at different stores like Bloomingdales, Macy's, Sears, even the Dollar Store and look for products to buy. The focus will be on value. Many times the expensive products are worth the price. Some times they are not. We will examine opportunities to buy at a reasonable price compared to value. The products we are purchasing are fantasy players for our dynasty team.

This is the point of the season when the trade deadline has passed in most leagues. We are examining players to acquire that should be worth more in the offseason or next year. These are players to stash as free chances that could strike gold. The opportunity will mostly come from a potential change in situation. It happens every year. A player has changes teams and goes from worthless to very worthwhile. Chester Taylor is a prime example. So are Wes Welker and Sammy Morris for this past season. There is a long list of players that fit this description. A savvy dynasty owner could easily have picked up Welker at the end of last season and had a viable fantasy starter for free.

We have three weeks left in the fantasy season. This week and next, we will examine running backs that should be on the waiver wire in most leagues. The final week of the season will focus on wide receivers that all should be available in most leagues.

Michael Robinson

The former quarterback at Penn State is seen as the most likely replacement if Frank Gore is injured. He is a well-built back that is still learning the position. Robinson runs with authority, but is still working on the main aspects of the running back position. The second-year pro needs to improve on his vision and his balance, but is making strides. He has improved his yards per rush average from 3.1 his rookie season to 4.8 (through the first 12 games) this year. The yards per reception average has risen from 5.2 to 7.3 in 2008. The former fourth round pick is still only 24 years old and has a long career in front of him.

Outlook: With the injury history of Frank Gore, Robinson could vault into fantasy lineups sooner rather than later. Michael Robinson should be owned in dynasty leagues because of the upside he offers. After Gore, there is only Maurice Hicks for Robinson to compete with. There will be opportunity for the converted quarterback. Gore's injury history indicates so.
Store: Dollar Store
Price: Waiver Wire, if not a late round draft pick
Recommendation: Robinson is on the waiver wire in a few of my leagues. In the other leagues, his owners value the former Nittany Lion the same as a fourth round 2008 rookie pick. For fantasy owners that either believe in Robinson's ability or do not think Gore can stay healthy, Robinson is a great buy low… especially off of the waiver wire. His value should go up over the offseason.

DeShawn Wynn

The rookie from Florida has battled injuries throughout his collegiate and professional career. Wynn did play well as the starting ball carrier for the Packers before injury. He played in only seven games including the week eight game against Denver when Wynn was injured on his first carry. In those games, he had four games with over ten carries. Three of those four games, Wynn produced fantasy RB2 numbers. In the shortened season, the former seventh round pick averaged over four yards per carry and eight yards per reception.

Outlook: Wynn is one of three rookies, in addition to veteran Vernand Morency, in the Packer backfield. Ryan Grant is playing well now, but is not lock to keep the job in 2008. The Packers could draft another back or bring in a veteran to compete. When healthy, Wynn does not have much competition from the other Packer backs. Brandon Jackson has disappointed. Morency is being utilized as strictly a third down and change of pace running back.
Store: Dollar Store
Price: Waiver Wire or very low pick
Recommendation: With Wynn on injured reserve, he has been or will be dropped in many dynasty leagues. Wynn has been prone to injury throughout his college and pro career. For this reason, I would not recommend picking him up if others on this list are available.

Mewelde Moore

Moore has played many roles for the Minnesota Vikings. He returns kicks and has played different roles at the running back position. The versatile ball carrier is best used as a change of pace back, but has been the primary runner a few times in his short career. The drafting of Adrian Peterson is a signal that the Vikings may not re-sign Moore this offseason. Even though it seems as though Mewelde has been around for a long time, he is still only 25 years old. The 5'11", 209-pound former Tulane star has enjoyed some success in his four-year career. In 2005, Moore finished with over 1,000 combined yards and a RB28 ranking in fantasy. Throughout his career, the former fourth round pick is averaging 4.8 yards per carry and 9.4 yards per reception. Add in his return ability, and Mewelde Moore will be a target of several teams this offseason on the free agent marketplace.

Outlook: Mewelde Moore will most likely play for a different team in 2008. Many teams could use the services of the versatile runner. He catches the ball well out of the backfield and can be at least a third down back for many teams.
Store: Dollar Store
Price: Waiver Wire
Recommendation: Buy if you are in a deep league and can afford to wait to see where Moore signs this offseason.

Antonio Pittman

The rookie from Ohio State slid on draft day. To make matters worse, he was beat out in preseason by an undrafted free agent, Pierre Thomas, for a spot on the New Orleans Saints. Pittman then signed with the Saint Louis Rams and has played well. The rookie has passed Brian Leonard on the depth chart. He possesses a tough running style, combined with good vision. Antonio Pittman may never be a star in the NFL, but could work himself into a prominent role on the Rams. Through the first 12 games of the season, Pittman only accumulated 28 rushes and two receptions. The one game that gives fantasy owners hope was the week ten game against the New Orleans Saints where the former fourth round pick rushed seven times for 53 yards.

Outlook: Pittman backs up Steven Jackson for the Rams, who is a stud young running back. Unless Jackson is injured and misses a substantial amount of time, the rookie will not have much opportunity. He is still a young player. Antonio Pittman turns 22 years old next week.
Store: Dollar Store
Price: 2008 3rd round pick or a good prospect
Recommendation: Let someone else waste the roster spot on Pittman. He just will not get much opportunity as long as he is a Ram.

Tatum Bell

The former Oklahoma State star has been a disappointment so far in his stint in Detroit. Bell is in the coach's doghouse and will probably play with a different team in 2008. He possesses great straight-line speed and is a threat to take any carry the distance for a touchdown. But, the former Bronco struggles as a receiver and as a pass blocker. In addition, he has had a tendency to fumble. Tatum Bell is an enigma. He averaged almost five yards a carry as a Bronco, but still found himself in the doghouse. He was traded after two straight seasons with over 1,000 combined yards. In those seasons, the 26 year old finished as the 22nd and 31st ranked fantasy running back, respectively. He had two good seasons. Can he replicate that production on another team? Who knows? But, he will have to leave Detroit to find out.

Outlook: Bell demanded a trade earlier in the year and will probably be playing elsewhere in 2008. Tatum did have a pair of productive seasons in Denver and teams will see the upside.
Store: Dollar Store
Price: 2008 3rd round rookie pick or Waiver Wire.
Recommendation: Buy if you can get him on the cheap. Bell provides good potential and will probably be incorporated into.

Sammy Morris

The former Miami Dolphin was playing very well before injury. He played the complementary role to Laurence Maroney in the Patriot backfield. Morris is a very versatile back that is good in short yardage and is a good receiver out of the backfield. Sammy Morris and Wes Welker each played at Texas Tech and were teammates at Miami. Buffalo drafted the 29 year old in the fifth round of the 2000 NFL Draft. Oddly, this is his third stop in the AFC East.

Outlook: Maroney should still be in New England leaving Morris to resume his 2007 role. Maroney's proneness to injury could make the former Texas Tech Red Raider once again viable for fantasy owners. Before injury, Morris was averaging 4.5 yards per carry. Sammy Morris was a viable fantasy RB2 this season while healthy. He averaged ten fantasy points per game. This is not bad at all for a back that touched the ball only 15 times a game.
Store: Dollar Store
Price: 2008 3rd round rookie pick or possibly the Waiver Wire.
Recommendation: Only buy if you can afford the roster spot for the entire offseason. Morris is an ideal depth running back for fantasy owners. He can be used as a flex option some weeks and offers upside given a Maroney injury.

With this week and next covering waiver wire running backs, below is the possible list for next week (and some that will not be covered, but are worth mentioning):

Kenny Irons - injured rookie with promise
Michael Bennett - veteran back should be elsewhere in 2008
Michael Pittman - back from injury, but is versatile and offers depth
Tyson Thompson - RB3 in Dallas and could benefit if Dallas does not replace Julius
Mike Bell - Lost in the Denver RB shuffle
Leonard Weaver/Maurice Morris - how the Seahawks will address the RB position?
Chris Perry - not activated from PUP list and is on IR.
Jerome Harrison - Great receiver and who knows about the 2008 primary RB?
Maurice Hicks - Plays behind Frank Gore and is versatile.
Darren Sproles - With Michael Turner leaving in 2008, Sproles could be LT's backup
Ahmad Bradshaw - Bradshaw is next in line with the injuries in New York.