Defensive Team By Committee

  Posted 8/15 by Chase Stuart, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

The last five years, Footballguys.com has promoted the defensive team by committee (DTBC) theory to help fantasy players dominate their leagues. Fantasy defenses are inconsistent from year to year, so predicting which defenses and special teams (D/STs) will do well is very difficult. Further, you want to spend all your mid-round picks on your sleepers, right?

The problem, of course, is that a lower pick usually means less of a reward. So how do you get great production while saving your most important draft picks? We spend countless hours analyzing team offenses, and relatively few thinking about team defenses. But an average defense against a bad offense will do just as well as a great defense against an average offense. The key to the DTBC system is to find two teams available late in your draft, whose combined schedule features prominently weak offenses. Since you start your defense based on matchups, and your D/ST will usually oppose a weak offense, your D/ST position will score lots of fantasy points.

Last year, the suggested DTBC was Miami (ADP of D/ST 11) and New England (ADP of D/ST 17). Miami ended the year ranked 6th (164 FPs), and New England 7th (163 FPs) meaning both provided nice value over their average draft position. More importantly, had you played them in the weeks recommended in the article, you would have scored 184 FPs, which would have ranked 3rd behind only Baltimore and Chicago.

When picking this year's committee, look for three factors:

• A very easy combined schedule
  
• Two teams with late round ADPs
  
• Reasons to expect improvement in 2007

The first step in the DTBC system entails grading the offenses. I've used the Footballguys.com projections to rank the offenses, scoring them the following way: (0.3 x Points scored) + (0.03 x Total Yards) - (2 x Interceptions thrown) - (2 x Fumbles lost). Each team's projection is shown in the first column in the table, along with their projected rank, and how they ranked under the scoring system in 2006. While most leagues award significant points for sacks, I don't factor them in because sacks allowed predictions aren't very accurate, so their inclusion will reduce the reliability of the system. But we'll absolutely keep pass rushers in mind when we select the DTBC.

Jon Kitna had 31 turnovers last year, which made the Lions a pretty attractive fantasy opponent. The addition of Calvin Johnson should make them a more dangerous offense, and they've moved up in the rankings. The Broncos were held down by Jake Plummer (68.8 QB Rating), but Jay Cutler and Travis Henry should make the Broncos offense very tough in 2007. On the other side, the Falcons lost Mike Vick, and with Joey Harrington at the helm, become a better opponent for your fantasy D/ST. After grading the offenses, I went through the NFL schedule and assigned the corresponding projection for each opponent that every team played. For example, when the Chiefs host the Chargers in week 10, Kansas City receives 271 points. When the Chiefs face Oakland in week 12, KC gets 152 points. However, for road games, an additional five points are added, so the Chiefs get 276 points when playing @San Diego, and 157 points when playing in Oakland. Bye weeks are worth 400 points. After doing this for all 512 games, we can now rank each team' schedule and pair up the defenses to form the best possible committee. Obviously, the fewer points on the combined schedule, the better. One note: I'm ranking the committees through sixteen weeks, as most leagues don't play in week 17.

2007 Defensive Team By Committee

Minnesota Vikings (ADP: 181, DT12)

• Kenechi Udeze, Erasmus James/Ray Edwards, Pat Williams, Kevin Williams
• Chad Greenway, E.J. Henderson, Ben Leber
• Antoine Winfield, Cedric Griffin, Darren Sharper, Dwight Smith

The Vikings may possess the best defensive tackle combo in the league, which helps to explain their incredible run defense from a year ago. Kevin Williams is the star of the group, and the two-time Pro Bowler is one of the most athletic big men in the NFL. Along with the mammoth Pat Williams, it's nearly impossible for teams to run inside on the Vikings. Because both men take up so many blockers, there's a real chance that one of Udeze, James or Edwards can have a breakout year at defensive end. Udeze returns to the left defensive end position, which is his natural and preferred position. The former first round pick out of USC had to switch to RDE last year when Erasmus James suffered an ACL injury. James was activated off the physically unable to perform list on August 13th, and it remains to be seen if he can regain the form that made him a first round pick in 2005. Ray Edwards had a productive rookie season with 3.5 sacks despite being a backup player most of the year. He's a natural pass rusher that could be a strong role player for the Vikings.

E.J. Henderson was responsible for five turnovers and 2.5 sacks last season, and the 27-year-old is entering the prime of his career. He's returning to his natural MLB position this season, and should continue to be a player that offenses have to watch. Chad Greenway is just 24 years old, and the 17th pick in the 2006 draft missed all of last season with a torn ACL. Greenway has a valuable role as the weakside linebacker in the Vikings Cover-2, and has earned praise from the coaching staff so far in training camp. His development could have a big impact on the Vikings defense in 2007. Ben

Leber is a big play guy, causing six turnovers and earning three sacks last year.
Antoine Winfield has averaged five turnovers a year since joining the Vikings in 2004, and is a solid CB and a sure tackler. Cedric Griffin replaces Fred Smoot, and had a forced fumble, fumble recovery and interception in one of his four starts last year. He was a 2nd round pick from Texas last year, and is a very tough and physical young corner. Sharper doesn't turn 32 until November, and he did have nine interceptions in fourteen games for the Vikings in 2005. He's no longer an elite player, but is still a ball-hawking safety that can do well against weaker QBs. Dwight Smith will have to fight off free agent acquisition Mike Doss, but Smith was responsible for 7 turnovers last season.

New defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier replaces Mike Tomlin, but expect more of the same. Frazier will run the Cover-2, and spent last year helping the Colts win a Super Bowl. Troy Williamson and Mewelde Moore are pretty good returners, which helps in leagues that score Special Teams TDs.

Tennessee Titans (ADP: not drafted)

• Kyle Vanden Bosch, Travis LaBoy/Antwan Odom, Albert Haynesworth, Randy Starks
• Keith Bulluck, Robert Tulloch, David Thornton
• Chris Hope, Lamont Thompson, Nick Harper, Kelly Herndon

Vanden Bosch had 12 sacks and earned a trip to the Pro Bowl in 2005, but regressed last season with just six and a half. He did have 75 tackles in 2006, and is a solid two-way player for the Titans. LaBoy and Odom were both young 2nd round picks in 2004, and will split time in '07 at the other end position. LaBoy is the better pass rusher, and has strong technique to go with his natural athleticism. He's got 13.5 sacks in thirty-six career games, and could challenge for seven or eight this season. The DTs continue to leave questions about potential. Albert Haynesworth hasn't played a full season since his rookie year in '02, but the former first round pick may still yet reward the Titans. He's got great athleticism and an impressive first step for a man of his size, and has four sacks in his last sixteen games. Randy Starks is still just 23 years old, but has 10.5 career sacks in three seasons. Like Haynesworth he's quick, strong and muscular, but also has had work ethic and motivation problems in the past.

Keith Bulluck is an elite OLB, who probably deserves to have made more than one Pro Bowl in his career. Over the past four seasons, he's forced nine fumbles, recovered five more, intercepted eight passes and had 15 sacks. He's also chipped in with four TDs the past five years. Thornton is a smart player with very good speed, but hasn't been much of a playmaker so far in his career. Tulloch and Ryan Fowler are battling it out for the MLB position. Tulloch is just 22 years old, but has a season under his belt and looks to be the MLB of the future. He's the more talented of the two, but Fowler was signed in the offseason after two uninspiring years in Dallas.

Chris Hope had a career year in 2006, after spending the first four seasons of his career in Pittsburgh. Hope had 111 tackles and five interceptions, and he's a pretty decent playmaker at strong safety. Thompson's an athletic free safety who defended eight passes and intercepted three in 2006. Nick Harper comes over from the Colts, and has 13 interceptions the past four seasons. He's a strong veteran addition to a young Titans team, and should provide at least adequate coverage in the secondary. Kelly Herndon, Reynaldo Hill and rookie Michael Griffin will all see time at cornerback. It's worth noting that in weeks 13, 15 and 16, when you'd be starting the Titans, Adam "PacMan" Jones may be back in the lineup. If so, that makes the defense even more valuable, especially because of his return abilities.

The Combined Schedule

• Week 1 - Minnesota vs. Atlanta (167)
• Week 2 - Minnesota @ Detroit (204)
• Week 3 - Minnesota @ Kansas City (201)
• Week 4 - Minnesota vs. Green Bay (196)
• Week 5 - Tennessee vs. Atlanta (167)
• Week 6 - Tennessee @ Tampa Bay (185)
• Week 7 - Tennessee @ Houston (184)
• Week 8 - Tennessee vs. Oakland (152)
• Week 9 - Tennessee vs. Carolina (199)
• Week 10 - Minnesota @ Green Bay (201)
• Week 11 - Minnesota vs. Oakland (152)
• Week 12 - Minnesota @ New York Giants (216)
• Week 13 - Tennessee vs. Houston (179)
• Week 14 - Minnesota @ San Francisco (204)
• Week 15 - Tennessee @ Kansas City (201)
• Week 16 - Tennessee vs. New York Jets (202)

The combined schedule features two games each against the Raiders, Falcons, Texans, Packers and Chiefs. That should result in lots of interceptions and not a lot of points allowed. Games against the Lions, Giants, Panthers and 49ers seem like promising games for turnovers, as well. Not a single game comes against a top fifteen offense in the league.

For those of you that play in leagues with tight roster limits, note well that the Titans are almost never drafted in standard fantasy leagues, and aren't used in this committee until week five. You might want to avoid drafting them altogether, and then pick them up off your wire after week three or four. That should save you a valuable roster spot without a lot of risk, which makes this an especially nice committee.

Each D/STs strength of schedule

In some leagues, it's just too costly to spend two rosters spots on defenses. In larger leagues, it may not be feasible to grab two defenses that you like. If you're only drafting one defense, it still pays to know the ability level of its opponents. The Ravens, always considered a stud defense, play the toughest group of offenses in the league: two matchups with the Bengals, along with games against the Rams, Chargers, Patriots, Colts and in Seattle. That's worth considering when debating between the Bears and Ravens as your top defense, or even the Chargers. If your league championship is in week 17, note that San Diego plays the Raiders that week. Note: the 400 point bye week has been removed, since each team has a bye.

Here's a list of all 496 possible combinations, sorted from easiest to most difficult combined schedule: