Quarterback By Committee - Start 1 QB

  Posted 8/22 by Chase Stuart, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Note: For those that play in leagues that start 2 QBs, please check out the Quarterback-By-Committee (Start 2-QB) article. While this article will give you some important background information, be sure to review that one before your draft.

The past few seasons, I've written an article advising fantasy players to use the Quarterback-By-Committee strategy in their fantasy leagues. The first eight rounds of your draft should be used to assemble a wealth of talent at RB and WR (and occasionally, TE), not on a quarterback. While quarterbacks aren't interchangeable, there are two big reasons why you should wait on drafting them.

One, the difference in fantasy points (FPs) among the quarterbacks usually isn't much - last year QB2 (Drew Brees) scored only 17 more FPs than QB6 (Jon Kitna). The difference between QB8 (Favre) and QB 16 (Pennington) was only 26 FPs, or about 1.5 FPs per game. Two, QBs are pretty unpredictable because they're often the products of their schedules. Most QBs aren't difference makers in fantasy football, and usually perform pretty close to league average once you adjust for strength of schedule. The bottom six quarterbacks in last year's final top 12 - Tom Brady, Brett Favre, Philip Rivers, Eli Manning and Vince Young - averaged just 0.3 FP/G more than the rest of the league, after adjusting for SOS and games played. Remember, most of the top 12 QBs end up there because they don't get hurt and play easy schedules, variables that aren't easy to predict.

Your goal should be to save those high picks in your draft and still get solid fantasy production, by grabbing two or three QBs facing bad defenses every week of the year. That's what the QBBC system is all about. I strongly advise taking three QBs. Grabbing three quarterbacks leaves you protected from injury, and also will enable you to face weaker opponents. However, for those in leagues with right roster limits, I think you can get away with just two QBs this season because of how the schedule breaks down.

The first key, of course, is to rank the defenses. I've been doing lots of 'rearview SOS' work at the QB position - this just means adjusting the 2006 data for strength of schedule. So I figure, why not do it for defenses? I used two statistics - fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs, and adjusted yards per attempt allowed to opposing QBs. Both are normalized for strength of schedule many times over, providing a true ranking of how each team's defense did last year.

Fantasy points allowed (FPA) to opposing QBs is an obvious statistic to use; adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) needs some explanation. The statistic is derived by taking total passing yards, and adding 10 yards per touchdown and subtracting 45 yards per interception; then those adjusted yards are divided by total attempts. This gives an NFL ranking of the pass defenses, which is important to have. Some teams, like the 2006 Giants, gave up lots of rushing yards to opposing QBs, and saw a ton of pass attempts last year. This would overstate how attractive they are to face for your starting QB, because rushing FPs allowed to opposing QBs and pass attempts allowed aren't consistent from year to year. I'll save you the analysis for each team, but careful study was done on each defense to determine how effective they truly were in '06. Finally, offseason adjustments were factored in to derive the final projections. Many thanks to Footballguys.com IDP experts Jene Bramel and Jeff Pasquino for their help in fine tuning the defensive rankings.

What do those numbers mean? The "-3.60" in front of the Jaguars mean I expect fantasy QBs to score 3.6 fewer FP/G when playing Jacksonville than playing a league average defense. Jacksonville's D will be that good this year. Last season they ranked 2nd in both (SOS-adjusted) fantasy points allowed to QBs and (SOS-adjusted) adjusted yards per attempt to QBs. Starting your QB against the Lions and Bengals should be fantasy gold this season, as both teams should see lots of high scoring games in 2007.

The QBBC Trio

San Francisco and Tampa Bay have the two easiest schedules for fantasy QBs, so it's no surprise to see them form 2/3 of our committee. Washington's schedule is a bit above average, but fits in excellently with the combined schedule of the 49ers and Redskins. Take a look:

The Combined Schedule

• Week 1: San Francisco vs. Arizona (+2.2 FPs)
• Week 2: Tampa Bay vs. New Orleans (+2.1)
• Week 3: Washington vs. New York Giants (+1.5)
• Week 4: San Francisco vs. Seattle (+1.3)
• Week 5: Washington vs. Detroit (+2.6)
• Week 6: Tampa Bay vs. Tennessee (+1.9)
• Week 7: Washington vs. Arizona (+2.2)
• Week 8: San Francisco vs. New Orleans (+2.1)
• Week 9: Tampa Bay vs. Arizona (+2.2)
• Week 10: San Francisco @ Seattle (+0.7)
• Week 11: Washington @ Dallas (+1.4)
• Week 12: Tampa Bay vs. Washington (+2.1)
• Week 13: Tampa Bay @ New Orleans (+1.5)
• Week 14: Tampa Bay @ Houston (+1.2)
• Week 15: San Francisco vs. Cincinnati (+2.6)
• Week 16: San Francisco vs. Tampa Bay (+1.5)

One thing that should jump out at you about this schedule is the amount of home games. Over the past few seasons, fantasy QBs have scored between about 0.6 FP/G more at home than on the road, and that was incorporated into the rankings this year. A QB was credited with +0.3 FP for a home game and -0.3 FP for a road game. This is especially true when discussing mediocre quarterbacks; having the home crowd behind them can help turn mediocre games into strong fantasy weeks, and save your fantasy team.

The combined schedule features two home games against the worst two pass defenses in the league, Detroit and Cincinnati. Three more games are played at home against the Cardinals, the third worst team in the league. All five of those games could develop into shoot-outs. Four more are against Washington and New Orleans, making nine games in total against bottom five defenses. The one "tough" game is in Seattle, which happens to be the site of Alex Smith's best game last season. I don't think you'll find a better schedule for your QBs anywhere else than right here.

Alex Smith - Draft in (12 team league): Rounds 9 or 10 (ADP: QB18, pick 117)

I've written negative things about Alex Smith for the past two seasons in my rearview articles, and I won't pretend to say I've been impressed by what he's done. In fact, I think Smith was a few notches below an even average fantasy QB last year. But here's something to keep in mind: he just turned 23 in May. While Smith's numbers at age 22 weren't exciting, they were eerily similar to what Peyton Manning did at that age. Smith averaged 6.5 yards per attempt, completed 58% of his passes, and had a 1:1 TD/INT ratio. Manning averaged 6.5 yards per attempt, completed 57% of his passes, and had a TD/INT ratio a hair under 1:1. No, this doesn't mean that Smith will be the next Peyton Manning, but that's it's way too early to make any statements about his future. Remember that he entered the league as a 21-year old rookie from a mid-major conference; it was unfair to expect any early success.

New WR Darrell Jackson was leading the NFL in touchdown receptions through fourteen weeks last year, before missing the remainder of the regular season due to turf toe. He's been healthy so far in training camp, and none of his past injuries are bothering him. A healthy Jackson is a big upgrade over Antonio Bryant, and could help Smith finally become a valuable fantasy player. Vernon Davis should be much better in his second season, and Arnaz Battle has improved each of the past two offseasons. Don't look now, but San Francisco has some targets for Smith, who may be ready to earn his number one draft pick status.

Jeff Garcia - Draft in (12 team league): Rounds 12-14 (ADP: QB26, pick 162)

Jeff Garcia averaged 19.4 FP/G last season, playing in 5.8 games for the Eagles. Garcia's always been an impressive FP/G guy, but rarely plays a full season. While Garcia was terrible in Detroit and not impressive in Cleveland, he ranked as the third best QB in FP/G in 2003 with the 49ers, averaging 22.2 FP/G in 12.1 games. Each of the three years before that, he made the Pro Bowl. He's been a star whenever he's played in the West Coast Offense, the foundation of Jon Gruden's system in Tampa Bay.

Garcia succeeded in San Francisco with Terrell Owens, but he was impressive in Philadelphia without a stud receiver. Joey Galloway isn't T.O., but he ranks fifth in fantasy points among wide receivers over the past two seasons. Only Steve Smith, Harrison, Chad Johnson and Holt have scored more points. Gruden's coaching helped Rich Gannon revitalize his career, and allowed Brad Johnson to win a Super Bowl. While you might think Garcia is too old to be successful, he's at the same exact age Rich Gannon was during his 4,689 yard season, and the age Steve Young was during his best fantasy season ever. The West Coast Offense is kind to older, mobile QBs. Garcia is also good for some ground points, and is more than an adequate QBBC member.

Jason Campbell - Draft in (12 team league): Rounds 12-14 (ADP: QB24, pick 152)

Why isn't anyone talking about Jason Campbell? He's a former first round pick that had averaged 6.3 yards per pass and threw four more TDs than INTs in his first year playing (he sat on the bench his entire first year). He's 6-5 with good athleticism and an accurate arm, but he's an afterthought on everyone's draft board. Carson Palmer's the same size, sat his first season and then was about as successful on a per game basis as Campbell was in his second season. Campbell and Santana Moss developed nice chemistry last year, with Moss scoring in half the six games they played in together, and reaching the century mark in two of those games.

With Cooley, Moss, Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts, the Redskins have provided Campbell with some legitimate weapons to make this offense run. Al Saunders has presided over successful offenses recently in St. Louis and Kansas City, and the Washington players should be much more comfortable in year two in this complicated system. If either Antwaan Randle El or Brandon Lloyd can emerge as a reliable third option in the offense, expect the 'Skins to put a lot of points on the board this year.

Not a believer?

There's no doubt that this year's QBBC is full of bottom of the barrel guys, at least according to most. Footballguys.com expert rankings have Alex Smith as QB18, Jeff Garcia as QB25 and Jason Campbell at QB26. While I'm not worried about that, my goal is to help you guys out as much as possible. So here's a list of some higher ranked QBBCs, all of whom have friendly schedules, and should score a good number of points. While I think these combinations are likely to outscore the official QBBC outlined earlier, they all cost a bit more, as well. As a rule of thumb, I suspect the top five or so combos will score about 2 more FP/G than our committee, but you will be giving up some valuable fantasy depth to grab them.

The Top Fifteen QB Pairs

Some of you won't be interested in grabbing three QBs, or play in leagues with tight roster requirements and small benches. Here's a list of the top fifteen pairs of QBs, after eliminating pairs which included any of the top 11 QBs (before ADP 80) - Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Marc Bulger, Donovan McNabb, Jon Kitna, Matt Hasselbeck, Tony Romo, Vince Young and Philip Rivers. Note: Draft Joey Harrington at your own risk.

Stud QBs

Despite all this, I know some people will still want to draft that stud QB. Or maybe he'll just fall into your lap and his value is too good to pass up. So here's a list of the top QBs that match up - in terms of schedule strength - with the stud quarterbacks. The complementary QBs are listed in order, so Jeff Garcia's schedule matches up much better with Peyton Manning that Rex Grossman's schedule does. Note: I eliminated the other ten QBs in the top 11 when looking for pairs, so you won't see Marc Bulger and Carson Palmer on this list even though they have a great combined schedule.

Overall schedule strength

Even if you don't believe in committees, or have no pre-set draft plan, it pays to know how tough of a schedule each team has. Philip Rivers, for example, might be someone you want to pass on this year. You might want to downgrade his fantasy projection by as much as 15 FPs. Meanwhile, if you're deciding who is going to be the sophomore breakout - Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler - note that Leinart's schedule should yield him close to 18 more FPs than Cutler, all else being equal.

Best of luck in all your fantasy leagues this year. Be sure to shoot all your questions to stuart@footballguys.com.