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Spotlight - QB Vince Young, Tennessee Titans

Posted on 7/8, exclusive to Footballguys.com

David Yudkin's Thoughts

Vince Young had one of the most successful seasons ever for a rookie quarterback, taking over the reins of the Titans' offense early in the season, righting the ship for a late season playoff run, and becoming only the third quarterback to win the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. Many draft analysts had openly questioned how successful Young could be in the NFL given his sub-par Wonderlic test scores, the offensive scheme at the University of Texas, and his non-traditional throwing motion. At least in the short term, Young showcased a diverse array of decision-making, leadership, passing, and rushing skills; keen pocket presence; and overall savvy to prove his detractors may have been remiss in their initial assessment.

From a fantasy perspective, Young scored the third most fantasy points ever for a rookie QB (242 points), behind only Jim Kelly (271) and Peyton Manning (269). Unlike that duo, Young made his mark on the strength of his rushing totals (83 rushes, 552 rushing yards, 7 rushing TDs). Even seeing limited action early in the season, Young became only the fifth quarterback to have 550 rushing yards and 7 rushing TDs in a season. In many fantasy scoring systems, Young ranked in the Top 3-5 quarterbacks over the second half of the 2006 season, wrapping up his first campaign as the #12 ranked QB by standard FBG scoring. By all accounts, Young had a phenomenal season and seems primed for a solid fantasy career.

Tennessee fans better hope that Young can continue his success running the ball, as the team has serious concerns at wide receiver. The Titans lost their top two wide receivers from 2006 (Drew Bennett and Bobby Wade) and last year's key free agent acquisition (David Givens) has been slow to recovery from knee surgery and his availability for this year is very much in question. That leaves Brandon Jones as their top receiving threat (27 receptions, 384 receiving yards, and four TDs last year). Justin Gage is penciled in to start opposite Jones and has career highs of 31 receptions, 346 receiving yards, and two TDs in four years in Chicago. Roydell Williams and Courtney Roby are pegged as the other players that should see a fair amount of action, and neither has had more than 25 receptions or 300 receiving yards in a season.

Tennessee has almost as many question marks at running back. Travis Henry packed his bags for the mountains of Denver. Free agent Chris Brown recently re-signed with the Titans but he is far from a lock to start. LenDale White and rookie Chris Henry are also unproven options out of the backfield, and neither one was much of a receiving threat in college (White had 31 receptions in three years at USC, Henry had 26 receptions in four years at Arizona).

Young's leadership skills will certainly be called upon this year, as he will have to mount a charge with a very inexperienced supporting cast while continuing to get on-the-job training as an NFL quarterback.

Some people will point to Young seeing limited playing time early in the year last season to project huge numbers for the upcoming season. He averaged 16.1 fantasy ppg using his actual numbers, but some people will factor out a game and a half because Kerry Collins saw a lot of the reps the first month last year. Under that scenario, Young would have averaged 17.9 ppg. Either way, that would give Young a projected range of 257 to 286 points this year if he produced at the same level as 2006.

However, given the youth and inexperience spread across the offense, Young could struggle to reach 2,500 passing yards. The most comparable quarterback in the league right now is Michael Vick (ignoring his off-field issues). Vick has averaged 2,400 passing yards and 16 passing TDs a year the past three seasons and is entering his seventh year in the league. The average of the five FBG staffers that have posted projections has Young slotted at 2,867 passing yards and 16 passing TDs. Given that Young is embarking on his just his second season and with his stable of unproven receivers, that may be overly optimistic.

Positives

• Young has proven that he has big play ability and his performance in the 2006 NCAA Championship Game will not soon be forgotten (467 yards of offense and three rushing TD).
• He posted great fantasy numbers as a rookie and hopes to pick up where he left off last season as a potential fantasy force.
• VY seems like a good bet to rack up some big rushing totals and would be an elite fantasy QB with even average passing totals. He ranked as the 12th best fantasy QB last year with limited playing time the first month of the season.

Negatives

• The Titans' receiving options leave a lot to be desired and have proven very little in their limited time in the NFL. Young may be looking at below average passing totals.
• If Tennessee gets behind (not that big a stretch given that they may have a Bottom Five defense), Young may have no choice but to pass and his rushing stats may suffer.
• Young is the cover boy this season for Madden Football (for those that subscribe to the Madden curse conspiracy theory).

Final Thoughts

While it's easy to jump on the Young bandwagon and predict a steady improvement in his sophomore campaign, the last statistical data I had seen seemed to suggest that second year quarterbacks actually performed slightly worse in terms of per game averages vs. their rookie seasons. Young is ranked and projected by many in the QB 5-7 range. And while that may be where Young ends up in the future, that may be an aggressive prediction for the 2007 season unless he really goes crazy in his rushing totals or his WR corps makes exceptional strides. Rushing TD for QB are hard to predict and rushing QBs tend to have up and down years in that department.

Given that after the top seven or eight quarterbacks the scoring bandwidth for the next 10 quarterbacks should be very tight, Young could rank anywhere in the QB 9-18 range depending upon how other QBs fare and if Young misses even a single game. Someone in almost every league will jump on him pretty early (his ADP is currently QB6 and 54th overall), but that may be more of a leap of faith on upside and potential alone than a decision made in sound mind and sound body.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Marc Faletti:
He isn't Michael Vick -- he has always shown a dedication to improving in the passing game.. McNabb and even Favre seem like more accurate comparisons than Vick in terms of his passing upside.

He has no well-known WRs. Not much of a running game, either. He will still take a few bad chances per game. And his defense isn't going to help him out with field position too often.

And yes, he's on Madden.

There are a number of situational reasons why VY won't have an excellent season, and anyone who jumps off the bandwagon has plenty of ammo to back them up. But I still have yet to find someone who saw 8 or more of his games with their own eyes last year who wasn't truly bowled over by his talent and moxie.

Will he realize all of his ability this year? Doubt it, and the situation is a big reason why. But he's also not the kind of guy who wilts under pressure or waits for the players around him to make plays. After all, who the heck was Bobby Wade before last year?

Hawk:
While I agree that it's aggressive to project Vince at or over 3,000 yards, I still have a question for those that seem so concerned about his lack of WR's or "anyone for Vince to throw to." Did you guys really...I mean REALLY...think Drew Bennett and B.Wade were that good?

Vince has everybody back he had last year except those two guys. While I realize they were the Titans' leading receivers last season, those guys are very mediocre WR's by NFL standards. I thought B.Jones should have surpassed them last year. Vince threw for about 2,200 last season with those crappy guys as his leading receivers. I don't think there is any talent drop off (and may be a talent increase) with the guys that will be playing WR for the Titans this year. Agreed that there is no true stud, but he didn't have that last year either. I just can't see the loss of Bennett and Wade as being likely to have that big an impact on his passing numbers. Maybe it holds him back from haviing huge increases in his passing numbers, but I doubt it leads to a great drop off either.

Vince still has Scaife and Troupe. He still has A.Hall who caught a few at FB. He still has similar talent level at WR. And what he has now that he did not have last year is a RB that can catch the ball out of the backfield and that has good speed to do something with it. T.Henry and L.White had about 140 yards receiving total between them. C.Henry could easily beat that on his own, in fact I'd be surprised if he didn't.

guderian:
Are people really that serious about the Madden Curse?

The Titans had 447 pass attempts last year for 2,748 yards. Young averaged 6.16 per attempt, however he averaged a very good 6.94 in the second half of the season. If you split that difference and assume he averages 6.5 for the season on 447 att, you get 2900 yards. I think he is good for 18 TDs next year. Those stats alone would put him as the #22 fantasy QB.

Now you look at his rushing stats. Young ran 83 times for 552 yards and 7 TDs in 2006. For the second half of 2006 Young ran for 415 yards and 5 TDs. If you assume that he does that over the course of an ENTIRE season that moves him up to the #9 QB. If you annualize it (830 yards and 10 TDs) then he's the #2 QB. If you split the difference (622 yards and 7.5 TDs), he's the #7 QB. Again, this is using passing stats that put him at the #22 QB (2900/18).

I think people look at him and think "Vick". Well Vick had some great FF years. If you look at Vick's per game rushing stats over his career, then you get 834 yards on average, per full season. However, you only get 4.5 TDs per season. Vick's best year in rushing TDs was 8 and that was 5 years ago. Since then he's had 1, 3, 6 and 2 (Despite rushing for 1k yards). Young had 7 TDs last year despite only starting part of the season.

Plus, I think that Young is a much better passer than Vick. Young progressed each year at UT, and he further progressed as a passer during the second half of 2006. Also, I looked at his last 8 games and he completed passes to, on average, 7 different receivers per game. This is a rookie QB that has a solid understanding of his team's offense, can read defenses and select targets. He's not Manning, of course, but there is no reason that Young can't quickly become an 'average' NFL passing QB. Young was a 3-yr starter at UT and I think Vick struggled in the NFL because he lacked the college experience as a passer. I think the better comparison for Young is McNabb with slightly better rushing numbers and slightly worse passing numbers.

Positive factors:
1. Another year in the NFL and in the Titans offensive system.
2. Young faced one of the toughest fantasy passing SOS last year with defenses that allowed, on average, 6.5% fewer passing points. Regression to the mean dictates that he'll face an easier schedule this year.
3. Young's passing proficiency improved every year at Texas and I expect that to continue in the NFL based on Young's work ethic.

Negative factors:
1. Lack of surrounding talent.

Vince Young Projections