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Spotlight - WR Hines Ward, Pittsburgh Steelers

Posted on 7/17, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Mike Brown's Thoughts

Ever since his arrival in the league, Hines Ward has been a solid player. Ever since the 2001 season, Ward has been a very productive and at times, spectacular fantasy performer. He really peaked in the 2002 and 2003 seasons, finishing as the 3rd and 6th ranked wideout in fantasy, respectively. He added another top ten finish in the Steelers Super Bowl year of 2005, putting his stamp on a wildly productive five-year run.

However, Ward's yardage total has now decreased in each year since 2002 (and stayed the same last year, despite five more receptions). That could be partly due to the exceptionally high totals he registered early on, or it could be due to a decline in skills. More than anything, though, it appears to be due to an inordinately high turnover in different quarterbacks. It is very difficult to get into a rhythm with your quarterback when said QB is changing every other year. So while Ward hasn't put together three consecutive top-ten finishes yet, he is consistently mentioned amongst the best receivers in the game because he has managed to maintain his productivity even when everything around him is changing.

In 2007, Ward will have to deal with even more change. No, the quarterback hasn't changed -- Ben Roethlisberger is still in the fold -- but the coaching staff suffered tremendous turnover. Offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt was hired away to become the head coach of the Arizona Cardinals. And Steelers head coach Bill Cowher resigned and was replaced by defensive-minded Mike Tomlin of the Minnesota Vikings. The offensive system the Steelers will employ will still feature a smash-mouth rushing attack, but there might be a little more finesse this time around than we are used to seeing in Steel City. It doesn't necessarily mean the Steelers will air it out more frequently; just hopefully (for Ward's sake) more efficiently.

Positives

• As the number one receiver in Pittsburgh, Ward is a consistent source of fantasy points. While his yearly totals have fluctuated wildly at times from year-to-year, he has been able to be counted on as a starting caliber fantasy wideout in each season from 2001-2006.
• The Steelers have suggested that they will have sort of an Indianapolis Colts offensive model for the upcoming season. Obviously, one cannot reasonably expect them to duplicate Indy's success, but anytime you hear an offense is trying to do what the Colts have done it bodes well for the passing game.
• QB Ben Roethlisberger will enter the season healthy and hopefully remain that way throughout. His off-season motorcycle accident and subsequent appendix surgery threw the Steelers offense into turmoil, which they never truly recovered from.

Negatives

• Ward hasn't recorded a 1,000-yard season since 2004. Twice in the past three years he has finished outside the top twenty receivers, suggesting the 31-year-old could be on the downswing of his career.
• He doesn't pad his receiving totals with much rushing yardage, which he did earlier in his career. After rushing for 286 yards from 2001-2003, he has just 65 yards rushing over the past three seasons.
• Ward didn't score a touchdown after Week 10 last season, and had just one score after Week 7. Not to mention, half his season touchdown totals came in a single contest against Atlanta. That doesn't bode well for consistent fantasy success.

Final Thoughts

I really like Ward for this season. He has now had back-to-back sup-par receiving yardage totals, and with last year's dip in touchdowns a lot of people are jumping off the bandwagon. I like that. People are down on Pittsburgh in general, and Ward's ADP has fallen into the fifth round. I'm not saying he's the first option I would take if he's available, but it's pretty likely that he'll be near the top of my available players list in the fifth rounds of my drafts.

The Pittsburgh offense is still a force to be reckoned with, and a healthy Roethlisberger and a dynamic running game will help put them back on the map. Furthermore, the development of Santonio Holmes as a legitimate offensive weapon will help ease the pressure on Ward. The past two years, he has lacked Plaxico Burress to help take the pressure off him by drawing coverage away. Holmes looks like he is the guy that Pittsburgh has lacked since then to stretch the field and make plays. He also won't be sneaking up on anyone, meaning teams will have to game-plan for him from the outset. With defensive coordinators scheming to avoid getting beaten by the home run ball, the likelihood increases that Ward will see a lot more single coverage underneath.

The fact that Ward's ADP has slipped to the point it has is, to me, not an indication of his value but rather the collective fear of a player who had an off year. Thirty-one is far too young to be dropping off the map, and I think we'll see a return to form for Ward and a much improved Pittsburgh offense in general.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

FTRWRTR:
I love Ward because you pretty much know what you're getting from him. In five of the last six seasons ward's yardage totals have been from 975 - 1,163. Last year he was on pace for over 1,100 yards before getting hurt and that was with Big Ben admittedly coming back too soon from his motorcycle accident. With a healthy Roethlisberger ward lasting a full season, ward's production should go up. Also it's good news that the Steelers plan to move him around so ward won't have to face double teams constantly.

wannabe:
Hines Ward has a few very good things going for him this year. His ADP in redrafts is WR20 which is GREAT value. Plus, the Steeler offense will be much less conservative this year and will open it up more. I am looking for 1000 yds and 10 TDs.

Evilgrin 72:
Hines is going to represent terrific value this year. Holmes is the upside guy and is going to be taken too soon while Ward is taken too late. The guy may be a little older, but his game has never been reliant on speed and quickness - he's a smart player, a good route runner, and has good hands. With the likely trend upward in his targets this year, I wouldn't be at all shocked to see :

84 rec 1,120 yds 8 TD

Which would represent monster value at WR20 (Current ADP is early 5th round. I will be targeting him with my 5.5 pick and praying he drops there.)

Hines Ward Projections