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Spotlight - WR Javon Walker, Denver Broncos

Posted on 7/20, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

In 2004, Javon Walker has the "3^rd year breakout" that so many fantasy leaguers hope for; he notched 89 receptions for 1,382 yards and 12 TDs on his way to a 2^nd place fantasy ranking. Unfortunately a torn ACL cut his 2005 season short, and then contentious negotiations led to his being traded to Denver last year. How would Walker answer the call?

How does another top-10 fantasy season sound?

• 69 receptions
•  1,084 yards
•  15.7 yards per catch
•  8 TDs
•  175 fantasy points
•  WR9 ranking

When you step back and consider the circumstances Walker played through last year, it's hard not to LOVE his fantasy prospects for 2007.

1. Playing for a new team -- Walker changed teams, which is never an easy transition for a receiver. He had no time to built rapport with the Broncos QBs, nor did he have a mastery of the playbook. Clearly he'll be better in synch with his coaches and supporting players this year.
2. Rehabbing from a major injury -- Tearing an ACL is going to sideline anyone, but for a receiver it can be career-threatening. Receivers need to be able to run full speed to separate from defenders but more importantly, they must be able to plant and cut without worrying that their knee will give out. The fact Walker was able to perform that well one year after surgery hints at how well he could perform in Year Two, which is historically when an ACL injury is fully recovered.
3. Changing quarterbacks midstream -- Walker had to adjust to a new quarterback last season; TWICE. First, he worked with starter Jake Plummer. Then, midway through the season he had to find a connection with rookie Jay Cutler. The great news is that Walker and Cutler have had an entire offseason to work together, which bodes well for further improvement.

But not all change is good, examining the Jay Cutler factor a bit closer:

• Per game stats with Jake Plummer -- 4.6 receptions/78 yards/0.6 TDs
• Per game stats with Jay Cutler -- 3.6 receptions/46 yards/0.4 TDs

Pro rated over a full 16-game schedule, Walker's numbers would've looked like:

• With Plummer -- 74 receptions/1,242 yards/10 TDs
• With Cutler -- 58 receptions/736 yards/6 TDs

So is this disparity enough to throw cold water on Walker's otherwise bullish outlook? Not in my opinion. Remember, Walker and Cutler had very little time to work together and that will all change this offseason and during training camp. Walker's physical play and downfield game are exactly the throws Cutler would have the most trouble with right out of the gates, but once their timing and signals are in sync, there's no reason to think Walker can't/won't flourish.

Positives

• Javon Walker is physically imposing (6'3", 215 pounds) yet has blistering deep speed. He is extremely difficult to defend one on one in man coverage because of his strength and body control.
• The Broncos are perennially among the league's best offensive attacks, and Walker is the clear and away lead receiver; as Rod Smith is aging and Brandon Marshall is an unproven (yet promising) youngster still trying to find his role
• A year ago, Walker had to deal with 2 new QBs, a new offense and recovery from a torn ACL...yet was still a top-10 fantasy receiver

Negatives

• Walker's numbers plummeted once Jay Cutler took over; if they can't find a chemistry during the offseason, he could struggle in the early going
• It's conceivable that if Brandon Marshall doesn't deliver on his promise, Walker could find himself double covered quite often
• The Broncos have made changes on the offensive line, which poses risk to the entire offensive attack if they don't pan out

Final Thoughts

Last year Javon Walker had a lot working against him. He was coming back from a 2005 ACL injury. He changed teams and had to learn a new offense. He had to build chemistry with not one, but TWO new quarterbacks. And yet, he delivered a top-10 fantasy season. By all accounts, Walker is healthy, focused and has worked hard on building a rapport with 2nd year QB Jay Cutler. Barring injury, Walker is as close to a lock for the top 10 as you'll find. Draft accordingly.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

SSOG:
Javon Walker was a very interesting WR last season. He was coming off of an injury that had cost him all of 2005, and he was also changing teams, which historically has suppressed WR numbers (Owens and Coles notwithstanding). There were a lot of reasons to not like Walker's chances... but there were also a lot of reasons to like him- notably, his mega-super-uberstudly performance in 2004. As TCs went along, we kept hearing little reports here and there about how Javon Walker looked like an absolute stud, and looked like the injury wasn't affecting him... but that they were still wearing shorts. There were also reports about how he might have dyslexia and that learning the offense would be trouble. In short, nobody really had any idea what to expect. In last year's spotlight, the general consensus was that he'd get just a hair over 1000 yards and 7-8 TDs... and that's pretty much exactly what he did- 1084 yards and 8 TDs. Yet despite that, Javon Walker had an INCREDIBLE season.

What made his season so incredible last year? Well, the first and most obvious was the fact that he had an additional 123 yards and 1 TD rushing (a whopping 13.7 yards per carry). The second thing that made his season so fantastic was his ypc- he might have gotten just as many yards as everyone predicted, but he did it on about a dozen fewer catches than was anticipated, giving him a sterling 15.7 yards per reception. The third thing that made his season so phenominal was that he accomplished it despite the complete and utter collapse of Denver's passing game. Denver as a team failed to pass for 3,000 yards, but Walker still came up with over a third of the yardage Denver DID have. He was, quite simply, a weapon- one of the few on all of Denver's roster last year.

Fast forward to this year, and Walker's outlook it looking far rosier. The knee injury that was such a concern last year is no longer an issue this year. The concern that 2004 was a 1-year aberration has been put to rest by Walker's amazing season last year. Denver's coaches have said repeatedly that they're going to more of a vertical passing game (and personnel acquisitions, such as Patrick Ramsey, back this up), and Walker is the only WR on the roster capable of taking advantage of that shift, so the offense this year is almost certainly going to feature Walker as its focal point. Likewise, with the maturation of Cutler, Denver's passing yardage is likely to increase- and if Denver's pie gets bigger, Walker's piece is going to, as well.

Banger:
Javon Walker is the best offensive player on the Bronco's and I'll be targeting him in each draft. He's got big play ability playing alongside one of the biggest arms in the game. Walkers currently ranked 10th and last year he finished 9th with Plummer playing HORRIBLY and a green rookie gunslinger. I don't think anyone thinks the Bronco's will be worse this year so why should Javon perform worse? He's screaming value to me and legitimately can be a top 2-3 wr. Remember it was only a couple years ago when he finished #2.

BassNBrew:
Javon Walker, ADP WR14 -- This could be the biggest bargain of the year. He finished 2006 as WR9 people...after changing teams...coming off a major knee injury...with a rookie QB for half the year. He broke every fantasy football rule in the book. Last year's production was his floor for this year. Walker is candidate for a top five WR finish.

Javon Walker Projections