Inevitably, there are going to be owners who don't have the 1st pick, and they're going to talk up all the reasons why Tomlinson is going to disappoint. Rather than tell you what you already know (Tomlinson = Fantasy Stud), I thought I would spend a bit of time addressing the "arguments" against his being the 1st overall pick.
Argument #1: He can't possibly duplicate last year's numbers
As I said on our Footballguys blog, I agree that it's HIGHLY UNLIKELY he'll duplicate last year's numbers. BUT, EVEN IF HIS PRODUCTION DROPS OFF SIGNIFICANTLY, HE WILL STILL BE A FANTASY STUD.
Consider where Tomlinson would have ranked over the last five years under two scenarios:
- Scenario A) 20% reduction from 2006 numbers = 341.7 fantasy points
- Scenario B) 40% reduction from 2006 numbers = 256.3 fantasy points
| Year | A) 20% Drop | B) 40% Drop |
|---|---|---|
| 2006 | RB1 | RB6 |
| 2005 | RB2 | RB6 |
| 2004 | RB1 | RB7 |
| 2003 | RB4 | RB8 |
| 2002 | RB2 | RB9 |
| Average | RB2 | RB7.2 |
Even if Tomlinson were to shave 20% of of last year's numbers, he's still a virtual lock for top 2-3 production. And under a more extreme scenario, where he shaves 40% off of his record-setting numbers, he STILL would be in line for a top-7 fantasy finish.
Argument #2: He won't be in the lineup in crunch time, as the Chargers will wrap up home-field and rest LT for a week or two during my fantasy playoffs
The easiest argument against this "logic" is that you have to GET to your fantasy playoffs before worrying about who may or may not site in the final week or two. And no other player, if healthy, will help you get into your playoffs more than LT will.
Another point to consider is that you can never count on an NFL team wrapping up homefield advantage with a few weeks to go. While the Chargers are rightfully considered a contender, the AFC is a deep conference. With such massive turnover in the Chargers' coaching staff, it would be foolish to discount Tomlinson (or any other Chargers player) because of fears about Weeks 15-17.
Argument #3: His workload has been too heavy, he's bound to break down
This is one of those self-fulfilling arguments. Eventually, all NFL players break down. Such is life, particularly in a sport where the physical demands are so daunting. But to magically predict THIS season to be the one where he suffers an injury setback or hits the wall seems random, at best.
- Coming off the 2002-2003 seasons, Tomlinson had the 3rd most carries in the league -- He had 1,576 yards and 18 TDs from scrimmage in 2004
- Coming off the 2002-2004 seasons, Tomlinson had the most carries in the league -- He had 1,832 yards and 20 TDs from scrimmage in 2005
- Coming off the 2002-2005 seasons, Tomlinson had the most carries in the league -- He had 2,242 yards and 31 TDs from scrimmage in 2006
Positives
- Tomlinson is, quite simply, the best offensive player in the game today. Last year he re-wrote the history books and is still solidly in his prime
- The Chargers are ideally suited to support a workhorse back. The passing game is efficient and opportunistic, but poses no threat to LT in the red zone. And the defense is stout, thus allowing San Diego to stay committed to the ground game
- Even if LT suffers a 20%-30% drop in his production from a year ago, he could still well justify the top draft pick
Negatives
- The Chargers underwent massive coaching turnover this offseason, and while new HC Norv Turner is accomplished, new OC Clarence Shelmon has precious little play-calling experience
- You're going to need the 1st overall draft pick to even bother thinking about LT this year
Final Thoughts
Not much more to say about Tomlinson other than, "congratulations" to those lucky enough to land the 1st overall pick. Last year, Tomlinson posted the best fantasy season in league history and barring injury is positioned to repeat as the most dominant offensive force in the NFL. While injuries can never be predicted, if anything Tomlinson enters 2007 training camp healthier than he's been in several seasons. That's a scary prospect, particularly for people drafting 2nd through 12th in 12-team leagues.Quotations from the Message Board Thread
To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.
Verbal Kint:
Will he match last year's gaudy numbers? Probably not. Will he still be the #1 FFL stud? Absolutely.
Over the last 2 years LT has ranked third in rushes, rushing yards and total touches. Over that time, he has averaged 344 rushes & 397 total touches. While on the high side, its not high enough to cause concern over the wheels coming off. He is still relatively young at 28, and seems to have a knack for avoiding the big hit. LT has gotten nicked up before, but has shown great toughness in playing through those minor injuries and has shown good durability.
The biggest concern to me is whether he will sit during fantasy playoffs if SD locks up home field early this year, especially with the emergence of Turner as a bona fide RB in his own right.
rzrback77:
I think that he is poised for another year very similar to last season. He has an outstanding offense, a great O-Line, and he will continue to be the focal point of the Charger offense. He is so graceful and smooth, reminds me of an antelope at times. He is an unbelievable receiver. He always seems to sneak out of bounds AFTER gaining the needed yardage. I think that he has a decent chance at continuing his greatness for three or four years and could break the all-time NFL RB records.
pantherclub:
This is the year LT starts to trend down. After 2 knock out years his body and production will begin to pay the price. Just log each of the last 6 games for the past 2 years and you will see his body wears down from overuse. I will bet anyone here that he doesnt finish in the top spot this year. I think Michael Turner will start to creep more and more into the game to keep LT fresh for the end of the year.
LaDainian Tomlinson Projections
| SOURCE | RSH | RSHYD | RSHTD | REC | RECYD | RECTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Wood | 335 | 1600 | 20 | 50 | 400 | 2 |
| Message Board Consensus | 329 | 1572 | 19 | 53 | 487 | 2 |
