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Spotlight - RB Fred Taylor, Jacksonville Jaguars

Posted on 7/12, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Mark Wimer's Thoughts

Fred Taylor has been a strong fantasy pick for many years, but he is now clearly in the twilight years of his career. He's 31 years old entering 2007, getting ready for his 10th NFL season, and he hasn't played a full slate of games for the past 3 seasons (he slowed down at the end of 2006 due to a hamstring injury that limited him to just 9 carries and one reception during the final two games he appeared in last year (weeks 15 and 17), missing the all-important fantasy playoffs week 16 (when most leagues hold their championship round).

Add in to the mix 2nd-year man Maurice Jones-Drew, who is the teams' goal-line back now-a-days and a more frequent target in the passing game than Taylor, and you're looking at a full-blown running back by committee situation - with Taylor on the short end of the stick when it comes to scoring chances. That is hardly the recipe for an explosive fantasy season. Unless something happens to change the personnel mix in Jacksonville, Taylor and Jones-Drew will probably just about evenly split carries.

Positives

• Taylor is a seasoned veteran with a long track record of solid results (in fact, he posted a 5.0 yards-per-carry average during 2006, the first time he's done so in his career).
• Taylor has a top gear that allows him to "burst" for TDs from far outside the red-zone.
• Taylor signed a contract extension in March 2007 that will likely keep him in Jacksonville for the rest of his career. The team thought he had enough gas in the tank to keep him in the Jaguars' RB stable.

Negatives

• Taylor is not the goal-line back for the Jaguars, and likely will struggle to get more than the middle single-digits in TDs, limiting his explosiveness in fantasy terms.
• Taylor has limited upside in receiving situations as Jones-Drew has shown good hands to date, further capping Taylor's value in point-per-reception leagues.
• Taylor hasn't been able to play a full slate of 16 games for several years now, raising durability questions about him once again. He's not known as fragile Fred any more, but he's not an iron-man of the Brett Favre/Peyton Manning mold either.

Final Thoughts

Most observers agree that Taylor is going to fall outside the top 25 at his position this year due to his fading recuperative powers and the presence of Jones-Drew taking up playing time/scoring chances. Taylor is not a guy you want to build your fantasy season around, but he could have utility as a bye-week stand in for your starting running backs, and would be good insurance for a Jones-Drew owner.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Phlash:
I will not draft his anytime before the 10th round for one reason - the wall. He had a great season last year, sure, but he wouldn't be the first RB to hit a wall with his age as a factor. Recently, things have been looking good for RBs, admittedly, with Curtis Martin putting up his best season at 31, Dillon putting up back to back 12+ TD seasons at 31 and 32, and Bettis putting up nearly 1000 yards and 13 TDs at 32. However, these kind of guys are the exception rather than the rule. Another limiting factor is that Taylor's situation is different than these other RBs - not many RBs come into the league as a backup like MJD did and tear it up with the numbers he put up last year. MJD in my opinion is ALREADY the starter as he gets the carries when they count - at the goalline and in short yardage situations. Taylor will be the backup like he was near the end of last season, but it will be for all 16 games this time around.

Anonymous Intern:
Here's the structure of Fred Taylor's contract extension:

2007: Base salary reduced to 800K. Given 4.2M roster bonus
2008: Base salary 4M + 1M roster bonus
2009: Base salary 5M + 1M roster bonus
2010: Base salary 6M + 1M roster bonus

In other words, this contract is heavily back-weighted. Now, I don't deny that the 4.2M guarenteed this season is a strong indicator that he won't be warming the bench, that doesn't mean they're looking to him long-term. In fact, I'd think it likely that he retires after this season - given that the Jags will likely release him before forking out another 5M to a 33 year old RB in 2008.

That said, I fully expect that MJD will bite into Fred's touches significantly, easily to the point of 50/50 split duties.

shadyridr:
They just gave him a big extension plus he had a very good year last year. Jones-Drew will steal some touches like last year and Taylor will get dinged up on occasion plus he will not get goal line carries IMO but he is a very good value as a RB3 as I think he will slip with everyone's infatuation with MJD. I expect a 70/30 split in favor of Taylor.

Fred Taylor Projections