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Spotlight - WR Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers

Posted on 7/30, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Steve Smith has a reputation as one of the league's most dangerous offensive weapons, and the contract to match. His signature season (2005) was MVP-worthy when he went for 103 receptions/1,563 yards and 12 TDs on his way to the top fantasy ranking at his position. By anyone's estimation, if healthy, he's a clear cut top fantasy prospect.

But is he overvalued? Is that even possible when you have a season like his '05 under your belt?

I'm going to make the case. Currently, Steve Smith is being drafted:

• 1st among wide receivers
• 14th overall

Why does that strike me as too high a price? Because absent his phenomenal 2005 season, Smith hasn't come close to sniffing fantasy numbers that warrant such a high draft choice. Yes, you heard me right...Steve Smith doesn't deserve the (fantasy) hype.

• 2001 -- Rank: 114th
• 2002 -- Rank: 42nd
• 2003 -- Rank: 15th
• 2004 -- Rank: 145th
• 2005 -- Rank: 1st
• 2006 -- Rank: 8th

In his WR1 season, Smith averaged 14.8 fantasy points per game. In his other seasons as a starter ('03, '04, '05), he averaged 11.0 fantasy points per game. Very good numbers, but not worthy of top fantasy honors, either.

This year, the Panthers have a lot of uncertainty. A season ago, the Panthers were the vogue preseason choice to win the NFC; yet a rough start led to an 8-8 non-playoff finish. The defense was stout, as usual, but the offense was, well, OFFENSIVE.

• Jake Delhomme regressed considerably and was inefficient. Despite attempting the 10th most attempts in the league, the Panthers only managed to throw 19 TDs (18th in the NFL) and averaged a subpar 6.47 yards per attempt
• The running game was stagnant, finishing 24th in yards and 29th in TDs

As a result, there are wholesale changes in place for the 2007 season:

• Offensive Coordinator: Jeff Davidson replaces Dan Henning. Davidson, a former Patriots assistant, was last seen overseeing a moribund Browns offense last year.
• Quarterback: David Carr, the former 1st overall pick, was acquired to "back up" Delhomme but many pundits believe he will get a chance to start this year. QB controversies are not usually good for star receivers.
• Wide Receiver: Gone is Keyshawn Johnson and his steady play and in his place is unproven rookie Dwayne Jarrett. Excluding Smith, no Panthers receiver caught more 28 passes last season.
• Running Back: OC Davidson is changing to a zone-blocking scheme in hopes of reviving the rushing attack.

Lots of change and uncertainty seems like an ill-fitting circumstance to drive Smith toward the top fantasy output at his position. His natural ability and importance to the offense will probably be enough to keep him in the top-5, but that's not good enough if you draft him late in the 1st round or early 2nd. In a competitive league, you have to optimize value and I personally don't see how Smith offers value as a late 1st or early 2nd round draft pick.

Positives

• Smith is an explosive receiver with great hands, premier route-running and an ability to generate yards after the catch
• Unlike a season ago, the Panthers are well positioned at backup QB if Delhomme gets hurts or struggles
• The trio of Keary Colbert, Dwayne Jarrett and Drew Carter aren't going to challenge Smith for top honors; but should be productive enough to keep opposing defenses honest

Negatives

• At 5'9", 179 pounds, Smith seems ill-suited to play the physical brand of football he's known for
• The Panthers have major changes afoot on the offensive side of the ball; creating uncertainty
• Outside of his stellar 2005, Smith has never performed well enough to warrant consideration at his current ADP

Final Thoughts

If we were judging fantasy value on overall talent and importance to their NFL team; Steve Smith would be a fine option as the league's top receiver. Among the elite players at the position, Smith is the most important to his team's success; as he is the Panthers only proven playmaker in the passing game. I fully expect Smith to notch 90+ catches, 1300+ yards and push toward double digit TDs; which puts him solidly in the top-5. But here's the rub. You may have to draft him in the late 1st or early 2nd round and that means he HAS to be the top receiver to generate value. I'm unsure why people seem so secure in that expectation, and I would caution against taking Smith unless he falls into the late 2nd or early 3rd.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

rzrback77:
Steve Smith has been spectacular over the last two seasons and three out of the last four. Disregarding his 04 season when he was injured early and missed the whole season, he has posted the following:

03 - 16 gms 141 targets 88 receptions 1110 yards and 7 TDs 29% of Carolina receiving yards
05 - 16 gms 150 targets 103 receptions 1563 yards and 12 TDs 45% of Carolina receiving yards
06 - 14 gms 140 targets 83 receptions 1166 yards and 8 TDs 33% of Carolina receiving yards

With Carolina having a rather poor offensive showing in 06, I don't see that they will fall back in 07. Their offensive line had major injury troubles and their QB was very inconsistent. Both should improve in 07 and Steve Smith will definitely be the focus of the passing game as he has been for the past two seasons. With the loss of Keyshawn, Drew Carter and/or Dwayne Jarrett will be the fall-back options after Smith, so it stands to reason that his targets will not decrease, but could in fact increase.

Jon Moore:
The offense runs through him. They may preach running the ball more, and hell, they may run the ball more. Deangelo Williams is a great talent, and the overall passing numbers may go down, but he's just too good to not get the numbers.

shadyridr:
When you look at his numbers closely hes only really had one dominant season. Last year you could've called him a bust. After his injury he was basically a 10 point a weak guy. Before Delhomme got hurt he either had 100 yds and 0 tds or 50 yds and 1 td. Just didnt look like the same guy last year. Maybe the injury affected or maybe he was double covered too much. I would ignore his poor #s without Delhomme because if he gets hurt again they have a solid backup this year in David Carr. Anyway, if the injury affected him I expect a huge rebound this year to stud status. If it was the double teams then losing Keyshawn and replacing him with basically nobody will hurt quite a bit. Ill say he doesn't regain stud status from 2 years ago but will put up WR1 #s.

Steve Smith Projections