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Spotlight - QB Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers

Posted on 7/17, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

A quick look below will tell you that my projections for Alex Smith are eerily similar to the message board consensus. This bothers me. Not because the message board isn't generally solid (they are) or that I didn't put a lot of thought into them (I did), but because we're so close, I wonder if somehow Smith is positioned to be this year's surprise fantasy QB.

Could Smith, entering his 3rd season and 2nd as the 49ers full-time starter, surprise us with a demonstrably better season than we expect? Anything is possible. After all, who expected Tony Romo to play at Pro Bowl level in place of Drew Bledsoe a year ago? Who expected Drew Brees to be the NFC's best signal caller in his first year on a new team? Surprises happen.

But I believe you win fantasy leagues by balancing rewards with risk. And, for that reason, I'm going to stick to my guns and tell you why I AND the message board contributors are right about Alex Smith's fantasy outlook.

1) The 49ers offense is built around RB Frank Gore -- Frank Gore demolished expectations last season when he ran for 1,695 yards, caught 61 passes for another 485 yards and scored nine touchdowns. His emergence earned Gore a major new contract and the team clearly has designs around building the offense around Gore.

2) Norv Turner is gone, the coaching turnover continues -- I wonder if the offensive coaches have to wear name tags during 49ers training camp. It seems that every season Alex Smith and his offensive counterparts have to adjust to a new offensive staff. As a rookie, Smith was inducted into the classic WCO under Mike McCarthy. Last season, the team brought in Norv Turner who, to his credit, helped improve the offensive unit from top to bottom. But now, unfortunately, the team lost Turner to the Chargers after just one season. Not wanting to change systems again, the team promoted QB coach Jim Hostler from within. Hostler is inexperienced, and this was not a hire born out of excitement, but rather by necessity. Remember, Turner took the Chargers job very late in the hiring cycle.

3) The WR corps was changed, but its improvement is contingent on Darrell Jackson's health -- I'm a huge fan of Darrell Jackson. But ask yourself this question; why would a division rival (Seattle) be willing to trade Jackson to a division rival if DJax was 100% healthy? As it turns out, Jackson has struggled this offseason with the turf toe that robbed him of his explosiveness last year. Lingering turf toe is a real concern. If Jackson can't play up to expectations, the 49ers receiving corps has major question marks. Arnaz Battle and Ashley Lelie are better suited as 3rd receivers, yet both could be forced to play starters snaps.

4) The 49ers don't throw the ball much under Mike Nolan -- Head coach Mike Nolan is primarily focused on the defense, but as with other head coaches, he instills a philosophy that permeates all aspects of the team. In 2005, the team attempted 389 pass attempts (31st in the NFL), and in 2006, 445 attempts (30th). While the 445 attempts last year represented a 14% improvement year over year, it still hints at an ultra-conservative offensive scheme that will impair Alex Smith's ability to put up big numbers.

Don't overvalue Alex Smith's QB18 ranking last year, it overstated things

Alex Smith finished 2006 as the 18th ranked QB according to FBG scoring. While some may look at that and think he's got a good shot at emerging as a sleeper this year with even modest improvement, you have to look carefully at the numbers. Alex Smith played every snap for the 49ers last year, a rare feat indeed. Compare Alex Smith's fantasy productivity on a PER GAME basis, and it tells a more sobering tale:

Rank	Name	G	PtsPerG
1	Donovan McNabb	10	23.76
2	Peyton Manning	16	22.65
3	Tony Romo	11	19.85
4	Drew Brees	16	19.82
5	Marc Bulger	16	19.22
6	Michael Vick	16	19.17
7	Carson Palmer	16	19.03
8	Jon Kitna	16	18.75
9	Tom Brady	16	16.92
10	Jay Cutler	5	16.57
11	Ben Roethlisberger	15	16.43
12	Byron Leftwich	6	16.18
13	Vince Young	15	16.14
14	Brett Favre	16	16.07
15	Matt Hasselbeck	12	15.84
16	Philip Rivers	16	15.83
17	Jason Campbell	7	15.65
18	Drew Bledsoe	6	15.50
19	Jake Delhomme	13	15.27
20	Eli Manning	16	15.14
21	Daunte Culpepper	4	14.86
22	A.J. Feeley	2	14.70
23	Matt Leinart	12	14.69
24	J.P. Losman	16	14.66
25	Rex Grossman	16	14.47
26	Chad Pennington	16	14.45
27	Jeff Garcia	8	14.02
28	Steve McNair	16	13.90
29	Damon Huard	10	13.72
30	Alex Smith	16	13.70

Positives

Smith is a young, cerebral, athletic passer who showed marked improvement in his 2nd season
The emergence of RB Frank Gore, TE Vernon Davis and addition of WR Darrell Jackson give him an enviable trio of weapons to throw to
According to our Ultimate Strength of Schedule, Smith as a very favorable schedule in the key playoff weeks (14-17)

Negatives

Smith improved off a very low base last year, but still only delivered QB30 fantasy stats on a per game basis
If Darrell Jackson's turf toe lingers, the WR corps may have gone from bad to worse
Although the team is maintaining last year's offensive scheme, Jim Hostler is a far less proven commodity as a play-caller

Final Thoughts

It's ironic that Trent Dilfer backs up Alex Smith. Many consider the 49ers a young team on the rise, and perhaps they are. But frankly I think Smith is in line for a "Dilfer-like" performance where he plays well enough to help the 49ers win games, but not well enough statistically to help fantasy teams win. Remember that his 18th place ranking belies his real per game value, and don't overbid. Expect improvement from a year ago, but nothing Earth-shattering.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

CalBear:
Smith went from being as bad as Ryan Leaf in 2005, to being not as good as Joey Harrington in 2006. He led a Niner passing offense which finished #29 in yardage and #26 in TDs, despite Smith having a ton of pressure taken off him by the remarkably successful running of Frank Gore.

The Niners lost two of their top three receivers, and replaced them with Ashley Lelie (430 yards, 1 TD in 2006) and Darrell Jackson. If Jackson plays 16 games, that probably constitutes an upgrade, but Jackson has missed 9 games in the past two years and hasn't been a full speed for a number of others. Due to injuries, he hasn't broken 1000 yards since 2004, even though he played in a much better passing offense than SF's.

There are other factors working against Smith. The two likely leading receivers on the team, Jackson and Vernon Davis, both have had significant problems with dropped passes. I am not someone who thinks Norv Turner is a great offensive mind, but his departure can't be good news for a struggling young QB.

And finally, there is Smith himself. He looked mediocre for most of the season, and bad for the rest. His second-half split (171 yards per game, 56.8% completions, 7 TD 9 INT, all worse than his averages for the year) does not inspire confidence that he's getting more comfortable and improving his game.

I think he will get to throw more passes than he did last year, but other than that his numbers will be flat or worse than last year.

Chase Stuart, FBG Staff:
28 teams had their QBs score more fantasy points than the 49ers. Alex Smith ranked 18th last year, but that's only because he played every game for them. Durability isn't particularly valuable for a mediocre fantasy QB; upside is. Now the 49ers Team QB ranked 32nd in 2005, so they did improve last year. But there's a long, long way to improve before Smith can be considered anywhere near a top 12 QB.

rzrback77:
Too much change here for my liking, 3rd OC in third season for Alex Smith and the Niners. The running game was ultra-effective and that looks to be the strength heading into 07. The third OC in three years is what I expect to stunt Smith's growth. Several new receivers should improve the potential and the return of TE Vernon Davis as well. Kind of a catch-22 situation. I still believe in Smith and he could be an excellent dynasty grab, but I'll stick with low expectations in 07. An overall modest increase and he will probably finish top twenty, but have few big games fantasy wise.

Alex Smith Projections

SOURCE	PYD	PTD	INT	RSHYD	RSHTD
Jason Wood	3105	19	15	220	2
Message Board Consensus	3104	19	14	190	2