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Spotlight - QB Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

Posted on 7/20, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Will Grant's Thoughts

Very quietly last season, Ben Roethlisberger managed to finish as the 10th best fantasy QB. Despite a serious motorcycle accident over the summer that caused him to miss the first game of the season, Roethlisberger finished the season strong, going 130-235 for 1734 yards 11 TD passes and only 9 INTS during the second half of the season. He also chipped in 87 rushing yards and 2 TDS during that same span. This is a stark contract from his first three starts where Big Ben had 2 or more INTS (7 total) and zero TD passes.

This season, Ben has to deal with a new offense under new Head Coach Mike Tomlin and new offensive coordinator Bruce Arians. The offense will be essentially the same as it was when Arians was the WR coach, but Roethlisberger will have more freedom to call his own plays. Roethlisberger has responded to this new freedom by campaigning to use the no-huddle offensive set more this season. The Steelers experimented with it during the pre-season last year and Roethlisberger really performed well. In the early May camps, Ben showed confidence using the no huddle and his completion percentage was much higher when he was calling the shots on the fly.

The Steelers had a solid group of pass catchers in 2006, and all of them will be returning in 2007. Santonio Holmes turned in a solid rookie season last year, and emerged as a big-play threat down the stretch (16 catches for 321 yards and a TD over the last four games). He should come into the 2007 season ready to shine. Hines Ward is as solid as ever as he enters his 10th season, and he still remains Pittsburgh's go-to guy. Third-year TE Heath Miller is an excellent red-zone threat, and has turned in 11 receiving TDS during his first two years. With Nate Washington and Cedrick Wilson as their #3 and #4 wideouts, Big Ben should have plenty of options on where to throw the ball.

The Pittsburgh running game should return with another solid performance lead by FBG Cover-boy Fast Willie Parker. Parker turned in 1,700 yards from scrimmage and 16 total TDS last season as Pittsburgh's main rushing threat, and he should perform well again in 2007. The Steelers added journeyman Kevan Barlow to the mix during the off-season, and although his 'glory' days are well behind him, Barlow will give the team additional depth at the RB position.

A solid running game should keep defenses honest and give Ben more time to find the open man.
The biggest knock on Roethlisberger is that he always seems to be dinged up. He has never played a full 16 game-season, and has a history of injuries to his knee and thumb. Big Ben sustained a serious head injury in his helmet-less motorcycle accident, and also suffered a concussion last October in a game against the Falcons. Ben is entering his fourth season with the Steelers, and it will be interesting to see if he can finally shake the injury bug.

Also a concern centers around Roethlisberger's performance under increased workload last season. In his first two years, Roethlisberger had less than 300 attempts for the year, and posted an impressive 8.9 Yards per attempt. Last season, his number of throws ballooned up to 469, and his YPA dropped to just 7.5. Is this a reflection of his poor 2007 start, or an indication that less is more in Big Ben's case?

Positives

• Top 10 finish last season despite horrible start and only 15 starts.
• Solid WR corps, with a good balance of veteran leadership and emerging young talent.
• New offense with more no huddle packages to give Roethlisberger more options while running the offense.

Negatives

• Roethlisberger is entering his 4th season, yet he has yet to play a full 16 games.
• Low completion percentage (59.7) and YPA (7.5) last season could indicate that his stats might not be as impressive when he is throwing 450 times a year.
• Concerns surround the OL which lost center Jeff Hartings to retirement. All World Guard Alan Faneca is unhappy with his contract situation, and he will play this season with a chip on his shoulder unless the Steelers offer him a long term deal.

Final Thoughts

Perhaps the biggest upside of Roethlisberger is the fact that fantasy owners seem to be down on him this season. Despite finishing in the top 10 last year, Ben is still ranked 15th by most fantasy mags, and is ADP is currently 101 overall (QB17). With new offensive freedom, and an accident-free off season, Big Ben should easily outperform his draft position and could easily finish in the top 10 for fantasy QBS again this year.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Chase Stuart, FBG Staff:
Roethlisberger was great on a per attempt basis in 2005, and bad in 2006. You would think finding comparables wouldn't be hard, but it is.

I looked at all QBs with a minimum of 250 pass attempts in three straight years (Year N-2, Year N-1, and Year N). Then I wanted to see QBs whose adjusted yards per attempt dropped by at least 2.00; Roethlisberger's went from 8.02 to 5.67 from 2005 to 2006. Then I wanted to see how they did in the third year, Year N.

Only 16 QBs since the merger met that profile, and only three in the last decade. Most of those 16 improved on their Year N-1 play, which is a good sign for Roethlisberger.

Of the three recent ones: Brian Griese was terrific in 2000, bad in 2001, and then above average in 2002. Chris Chandler was off the charts good in 1998, above average in 1999, and then below average in 2000. And Jake Plummer was average in 1998, historically bad in 1999, and then a bit better (but not good) in 2000.

So that doesn't help much. There just aren't many comparables to a guy like Roethlisberger, who dominated the league statistically (ranking 2nd and 1st in adjusted yards per attempt in 2004 and 2005), and then ranked below average last year. Dan Marino from 1984-1986 wouldn't be a bad comparison, except he threw the ball a million more times than Big Ben.

Obviously, none of those other QBs ever smashed their head against the pavement in a horrific motorcycle accident. We can understand why Roethlisberger played poorly in 2006. And, assuming we think he's healthy, that should give us even more reason to be optimistic about him in 2007. He was that good in 2005, even if he didn't get to throw it that much.

Evilgrin72:
As usual, Ben has done all the right things regarding putting in extra work during the offseason, meeting extensively with the new staff to discuss philosophy, expectations, and new schemes. He'll be prepared. He's also stepping into more of a leadership role. He'll be calling out his own protections this year for the first time. What effect this has remains to be seen. The major problem last year for Roethlisberger is that the pass protection was spotty. He was forced to make too many split decisions, and when that happens, he tends to force the ball into coverage. He has too much Favre in him, and still needs to learn to bail on a play. The line simply needs to be able to hold up better to give the receivers time to get open, as Roethlisberger is the type of QB that can absolutely shred you if he has time (or buys the time) to let the receivers get free. Towards the end of the year last year, he got a lot better as the line stepped up, and this year, the line play will again dictate his success. Having a new C in there means there will be an adjustment period and it will take time to come together. This, coupled with the adjustment to new coaches and formations, and to Ben calling the protections himself, will likely mean the second half of next season will be kinder to fantasy owners than the first. I think Roethlisberger presents a classic buy low candidate around midseason, but is probably only worth a mid-round selection at your draft. Santonio Holmes is emerging as a dangerous big-play threat, but still needs another year to really break out. Ward is getting older, but is still reliable.

el-gato-grande:
I have to be honest in saying that I was enthralled with Big Ben as a fantasy player when he came out as a rookie. Since then, I have come to the realization that as long as Roethlisberger is in Pittsburgh, he will be nothing more than a fantasy backup and situational starter. In three seasons, he has thrown a single TD or less 60% of the time. In a third of his starts, he has thrown more INTs than TDs. Not exactly the numbers you like to see in your QB1.

Ben Roethlisberger Projections