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Spotlight - WR Jerry Porter, Jacksonville Jaguars

Posted on 7/17, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Mike Brown's Thoughts

The career of Jerry Porter has been filled with nothing but inconsistency. The numerous ups and downs have been well-documented, and at this point no one can really say without question that they know what to expect out of him in 2007.

Porter burst upon the scene in 2002 with nine touchdown receptions, despite a somewhat limited role within the offense. Expected to have a breakout 2003, he was derailed by injury and never got untracked. In 2004, he started slowly but finished with a flurry, ending up just two yards shy of his first career 1,000-yard campaign. While his numbers dipped a bit on the whole in 2005, he still set a career high with 76 receptions and appeared well on his way to a solid career. Randy Moss was now in town as the team's number one receiver and would take a lot of pressure off of everyone else, allowing guys like Porter to roam free across the field and put up gaudy stats, right? Well, it didn't quite work out that way.

Rather than take pressure off, Moss put even more on. Between his addition, the arrival of Aaron Brooks, and LaMont Jordan's breakout year at RB, there was reason to think if nothing else the Raiders would at least pose a huge threat offensively. Instead, they floundered horribly. Moss was injured, Porter constantly bickered with the coaching staff through the media, Jordan was ineffective and injured, and the Raiders became the laughingstock of the league. Nowhere was the embarrassment more evident than the situation involving Porter. There were stories of him openly rooting for the opposition on the sidelines, and the former playmaker was only suited up for two games the entire year -- catching just one pass.

During the off-season, the Raiders rid themselves of Moss by trading him to the Patriots. And head coach Art Shell got the ax as well, as he was replaced by USC offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin. While it may not translate precisely, Kiffin's offensive teams at USC were amongst the very best in the nation (though it should also be noted he had the best talent as well, which certainly went a long way). This spring through minicamps and practices, Porter has apparently been the model teammate. He appears reinvigorated by the new coaching staff, and there is little doubt that the team will be better offensively than in 2006 (if for no other reason than the fact that they were so historically bad that they almost HAVE to improve). What does this mean for Porter's chances to enjoy success as a fantasy option? Well, a lot of that will be up to Porter.

Positives

• Porter is a very talented receiver, and while he hasn't really shown it yet, he is physically capable of being a number one type receiver.
• With Randy Moss out of town and no other dynamic receivers on the roster to take his place, Porter has a great opportunity to land the WR1 role in Oakland. With new head coach Lane Kiffin coming over from USC, that could mean big things for whoever eventually does win that spot.
• To this point, Porter has done and said all the right things. Amazingly enough, he's being looked upon to fill a leadership role of sorts with the Raiders, and knows that this is his last great opportunity to become the kind of player everyone knows he can be.

Negatives

• Porter will be 29 by the time the season opener comes. While that's not old, it's not as if he was able to stay in game shape last year by catching a total of one pass. He has basically missed a year of football, because it didn't appear as if he was practicing all that much either.
• While Porter is doing and saying all the right things now, every player does and says the right things until they don't. One little slip-up could be all it takes with him, and he could be out the door (or even worse, in the doghouse again).
• For all of his potential, Porter hasn't exactly put his stamp on the league even when he DID play every game. He has had three very solid but unspectacular seasons, and much of the discussion of Porter centers around potential rather than productivity.

Final Thoughts

Will I have Porter on a number of teams this year? Sure, why not. I've always been very high on his talent and outstanding abilities before, and I've consistently rated him higher than most others (trust me, I'm not bragging here). It's just that every year he was supposed to have that huge breakout year and never really did. At this point, I feel like I've invested too many wasted high picks in the past to miss out on it if he does have a very good season this time around -- especially since it won't cost me anywhere near a fifth or sixth rounder, like it would have in the past.

That is perhaps the best thing about Porter for this year. Nearly all fantasy owners go on the "what have you done for me lately" philosophy. While it's true that most do their homework and make their own projections, you'll find that an astoundingly high percentage of predictions are based almost solely off the year before. Well, what memory is fresh in the minds of fantasy owners from last year regarding Porter? One. As in, one reception for the entire year. Who in their right minds would touch this guy and expect him to perform anywhere close to the caliber of even a solid bench player never mind a WR3 in your starting lineup? But that's why the smart play is to snag him late, but earlier than the others. Let's say it comes time for you to pick, and the decision is between an outstanding talent who plays for an up-and-coming offensive mind and is the number one receiver on his team (a team that just spent its first pick in the draft on a rocket-armed quarterback) and has a track record of success versus some over-the-hill, humdrum receiver who is a lock for 580 yards and four touchdowns. Give me the upside guy at that point every time, no questions asked.

I see Jerry Porter as a guy whose projections and ranking will continue to climb throughout the summertime for me personally. It's tough to go out on a limb and say I think he'll come close to 1,000 yards and 8 TD because it's unrealistic to say that without seeing him practicing day-in and day-out. We really haven't seen him play in nearly two years! Right now, people are just beginning to warm to the idea of drafting him at all, let alone highly. With a few more months to get back into top condition and further impress the coaching staff, there might be a few more believers. If the value stays nice for him (meaning a late-round pick), then there is absolutely no excuse to avoid him in drafts because at that point, what have you got to lose? Nothing. And you've got a starting WR to gain.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

rzrback77:
His best year, he averaged 9.0 ppg in non-ppr, but it was with a strong armed QB and less competition at WR. This year there are plenty of WRs to share the targets and the possibility of a rookie WB. Combine those facts with Porter virtually sitting out 06 and nobody knows what to expect. Therefore, he will be drafted very late and COULD present lots of value, but he also could be a bust as he tries to return from a long layoff. He's a player that if teamed with a solid roster AND he comes through with a top twenty WR season like in 04 & 05, COULD really strengthen a team, or not. I'll project that he does return and is a valuable player that can be drafted late, but I am not rock steady making it.

shadyridr:
Call me crazy but Im high on Porter due for a bounceback season. New coaching staff, new QB, and hes pretty talented. Chalk me up as a believer. Ill look to grab him as my WR3 or 4 and I think you can get him late.

az prof:
If Porter can equal 04 production, he will be doing really well. He has a young, inexperienced and unproven QB (no matter who starts) and a new offense to learn. He has always had issues staying healthy and being able to produce when injured. I would say 60/900/7.

Jerry Porter Projections