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Spotlight - RB Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins

Posted on 7/20, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Mike Brown's Thoughts

Clinton Portis has established himself as a household name amongst running backs and a staple of the first or second round of fantasy drafts every year since he burst upon the scene as a rookie in 2002. After being swapped for All-Pro CB Champ Bailey prior to the 2004 season, Portis has enjoyed very good success for the Redskins by going over 1,300 yards in each of his first two seasons and scoring 18 touchdowns over that span.

Last year was supposed to be Portis' best year yet. Al Saunders was brought in as the new offensive coordinator, the Redskins had loaded up their receiving corps, and everything seemed in place for Portis to make his leap towards the top of the NFL's running back elite. But a shoulder injury suffered during a preseason game got him off to a slow start. He missed a significant portion of training camp after that, and had to be eased back into the flow of the offense in the early part of the season. Then, just as his season was getting underway, he broke his hand. His run of bad luck continued when his backup, Ladell Betts, not only performed well but actually performed better than Portis on a per carry basis (all the while running behind the same offensive line). 

Ladell Betts was exceptional in Washington last year, and HC Joe Gibbs has suggested for the past few years that Betts had this sort of game-breaking ability. Once he was given the opportunity to fill in for Portis, he delivered in a big way. So even though this article is supposed to be about Portis, it's impossible to go very far without mentioning the contributions of his backup and how it'll affect the upcoming season. Regardless of my or anyone else's opinion of Betts, it has become apparent that he will see a significant amount of touches this year, and the term RBBC has even been floated.

Positives

• Portis has a solid track record of success, putting up four terrific seasons of production during which he never ran for fewer than 1,315 yards or seven total touchdowns.
• He is very adept at catching the ball, as evidenced by his 158 career receptions through five seasons.
• While it's clear that Ladell Betts is going to get a good amount of playing time, that will change in a hurry if Betts keeps losing the football. He fumbled at an alarming rate last season, and no coach will put up with that -- especially when that coach has a back like Portis to turn to on a regular basis.

Negatives

• Portis is developing a reputation as being a bit fragile. Last year he was hurt on two separate occasions (torn labrum, broken hand) that forced him out of action. This offseason, he has developed knee tendinitis. Not a great trend for someone who will be just 26 on opening day.
• Backup Ladell Betts actually outperformed Portis last season. It's already been suggested that Washington could feature much more of a committee approach than in the past (not only to keep Portis healthy, but also to give Betts a clear role).
• Portis has averaged 4.1 yards per carry with Washington, as opposed to 5.5 when he was with the Broncos. He has also scored 25 touchdowns in 39 Washington games versus 31 touchdowns in 29 Denver games. In other words, he may be very talented but may have been greatly helped even more than we thought by the Denver system.

Final Thoughts

I've been a big believer in Ladell Betts' abilities for several years now. Last year, he finally came around and delivered in a big way (you know, just in time for me to not have him on any teams or rank him very highly in the preseason...but I digress). The fact of the matter is, Portis' first two years in Washington seem to have taken quite a toll on the undersized back. After 563 carries his first two years in Denver, he racked up 697 his first two in Washington. It shouldn't have been much of a shock, then, when he was hurt on two separate occasions last year in-season and then developed knee tendinitis during the off-season.

And while it may be blasphemous to some to hear such a thing, it's entirely possible that Betts is just as talented a runner as Portis. I know, I know -- Portis has Pro Bowl appearances and is a superstar and has had three separate 1,500-yard campaigns. But since joining the Skins, Portis has never had a five game stretch where he put up 106.8 points (which Betts did to close out last year). Betts has also averaged 4.4 yards per carry over the past three years while running behind the same line that Portis has averaged 4.1 yards per carry behind. Finally, Portis was selected with the 19^th pick of the second round in the 2002 draft by Denver. Who do you suppose was taken just five spots later? If you guessed Ladell Betts, you're good at figuring out the obvious. You also realize then that a lot of the reason for each player's career path to this point was dictated by the opportunity each player has had and not necessarily their respective skill sets.

About the only spot that Portis really trumps Betts is in touchdown-per-carry ratio. Betts has a much lower touchdown ratio, but that can be attributed to the fact that Portis, as the "name" guy on the team, was given the vast majority of the goal line carries. During the 2004-2006 time frame, Portis scored 13 touchdowns on 45 goal line carries (29% success ratio), while Betts scores on two of eight (25% success ratio).

My point in all this isn't necessarily to knock Portis. Rather, it's that I believe Betts shouldn't be written off as simply a minor threat to Portis' playing time. I feel that the Redskins will run, and run a lot, this year. That should help keep Portis right around that 1,000-yard mark but I don't see him getting so many carries that he'll be able to rate amongst the other second round backs. Betts will get a very significant portion of the carries, and more than enough to knock Portis back to the third tier of backs this year.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

kncks12:
I firmly believe Clinton Portis is going to be a force this year. I understand that Betts is there, but he will only take some carries from Portis in middle of game. Portis will be the man in middle and end. He could be real value in redraft leagues because I believe he will fall and someone will be very lucky to get him in the mid second or end of second. The Redskins should be a much improved team and we saw what their running game could do the 2nd half of season with Betts. Portis is simply better than Betts when healthy and will do better than Betts.

perry147:
Not since his rookie year has Portis's fantasy value been questionable. The presence of Betts, who performed very well last year while Portis was out, as well as his shoulder and knee injuries all have contributed to this. Al Saunders offense which we all know is a running backs wet dream but it also grinds them up. The issue with drafting Portis this year is not whether he will produce but how long can he stay healthy. This means that if you do draft Portis be sure to get Betts also. Portis is a mid second round draft choice in most formats this year but he has the potential to perform well above that spot if injury can be avoided. Caveat Emptor ("Let the buyer beware").

5-ish Finkle:
I do agree Betts will see more touches, but it's not as if this is going to be a 50/50 split. Betts will likely get an increased role on third downs and probably get more work in games that the Skins have in hand in the 2nd half in order to keep Portis healthy. I can easily see that happening. However, "more touches", in my mind, probably means he sees 40% of them instead of the 25-30% he'd have seen had Portis never been injured in '06. I like Ladell Betts. I really do....but he's not as good as Clinton Portis and I'm certain that Gibbs and Saunders realize this. It's a pretty safe bet that a Saunders offense will run at least somewhere in the neighborhood of 500 times, perhaps more. As long as he's healthy, I believe Portis is going to get 60% of that at minimum. Not because Ladell Betts sucks, but because Clinton Portis is better than Ladell Betts if they're both 100%.

toxicbees:
If you ask me, you can't ignore Betts' numbers last year. He performed excellent down the stretch, and against some stout defenses none the less. While there is no question that Portis is the starting RB, Betts' presence forces me to lower Portis' numbers. Betts is likely to get passing downs, which will hurt Portis' value in PPR leagues. Plus Betts is likely to get garbage time, which takes away from Portis' value.

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