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Spotlight - RB Willie Parker, Pittsburgh Steelers

Posted on 6/17, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Willie Parker will forever be remembered as one of the great waiver wire pickups in fantasy history. Virtually undrafted in 2005, he was named the surprising starter against Tennessee (thanks to injuries to Bettis and Staley) and he burst onto the scene with 161 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries. He ended the season with 1,202 yards rushing and 4 touchdowns. He ended the season ranked RB15; incredible value for someone available on waiver pickups in almost every league.

In spite of his success, Parker had plenty of doubters heading into 2006.

• Could he succeed that the goal line?
• Could he handle a full workload?
• Would he be a factor in the receiving game?

Needless to say, Parker answered those questions with a definitive season:

• 337 carries [yes, he can handle the load]
• 1,494 yards rushing [yes, he's ready for a full-time role]
• 13 rushing touchdowns [yes, he can handle the scoring load]
• 31 receptions [yes, he's an able receiver]
• 222 yards receiving [ditto]
• 3 receiving TDs [yes, he can excel in areas Jerome Bettis couldn't]
• Seven (7) 100-yard rushing games
• Two (2) 200-yard rushing games
• Six (6) multiple TD games
• 5^th place fantasy ranking

So one would think, after a 5^th place finish last year and improvement in every conceivable metric, Parker would be free of naysayers this year, right?

Yet, we're hearing more questions:

• Can he run against top defenses?
• Will the new coaching staff mean fewer carries?
• Can the aging offensive line hold up?
• Will Parker continue to log more than 70% of the team's carries?

To those questioning Willie Parker, I say, PLEASE JOIN MY LEAGUE! Honestly, there's little reason to worry that, if healthy, Parker can't again put up top-10 fantasy numbers.

• Digging into his failures against top defenses: While it's true he struggled against top run defenses last year [14 for 57 against San Diego, 23 for 51 in two games versus Baltimore]; what player is incapable of a few clunkers? As a fantasy owner, I would rather have my RBs struggle against elite defenses than struggle randomly against a mediocre squad. It's far easier to decide to bench Parker against Baltimore than it would be to see him struggle against the Colts, for example. One word of caution, however, Parker faces New England, Jacksonville and Baltimore in Weeks 14-17; which could mean trouble if you make it into your fantasy playoffs.

• Digging into the coaching changes: The new coaching staff brings uncertainty; that's without debate. But new head coach Mike Tomlin is a) a defensive coach and b) wasn't handed the job without scrutiny. What I mean to say is that the Steelers just won a Super Bowl as a run first team; there's no question that the PIT regime wanted commitments from its coaching candidates that they would do everything in their power to play "Steeler Ball." And since Tomlin is a defensive mind, he smartly retained Bruce Arians, who takes over as the play-caller.

• Digging a little deeper into the run/pass ratio: The Steelers reputation under Bill Cowher as a run-heavy team is justified. But people forget that Parker's monster 2006 came in a surprisingly pass-heavy offense. The Steelers were uncharacteristically middle of the pack a season ago in the running game. The team ranked 15^th in attempts last year (469 attempts), down from 549 [1st in the league] and 618 [1st in the league] the prior seasons. I would be quite surprised to see Pittsburgh run less in aggregate in 2007 than they did in 2006; new coach or not.

• Digging a little deeper into the balance of carries: The other question, of course, is the balance of carries. Parker surprised many by taking on the lion's share of the workload. Parker accounted for 72% of the teams carries a year ago, which is at the higher end of the league. Did the Steelers bring in real competition for touches? They re-signed Najeh Davenport and acquired Kevan Barlow; are we really supposed to expect either of those journeymen to eat into Parker's workload?

Positives

• Parker is a multi-faceted runner, proving himself capable of getting the tough yardage inside as well as breaking big runs outside. He was 3rd in the AFC in rushing plays greater than 10 yards
• The Steelers retained Bruce Arians, who will take over play-calling duties; don't expect the team to run less in 2007 than it did in 2006
• Parker scored 10 touchdowns in 21 attempts at the goal line, among the best conversion rate in the league. Neither Najeh Davenport nor Kevan Barlow represent challenges to his short-yardage touches.

Negatives

• Parker lost six fumbles last year; including a league-leading 2 inside the opponents 20-yard line
• The changing of the coaching guard adds uncertainty to the situation; we won't know for sure that Pittsburgh will be run-heavy until we see it on the field
• Parker was stuffed for 0 or fewer yards 29 times (8.9%); higher than one would like for a workhorse runner

Final Thoughts

Parker finished RB5 last year; marking the 2nd time in as many seasons he delivered great value. This year, Parker is no longer a hidden gem and you'll have to target him as your RB1 in the 1st round or, if you're lucky, as a fantastic RB2 in the 2nd round. Don't hesitate to pull the trigger on Parker as he's poised to deliver on another fantastic season. Minimal competition, a run-happy offense, and a modest career workload portend great things for Fast Willie in 2007.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

byron_nyc:
FWP -- in 2005 one of the all-time great FFG's pre-season sleeper picks -- has gone in less than two years from an unknown, undrafted rookie free agent to a proven top five fantasy RB. Where does the wild ride stop? What is FWP's ceiling? Last year's 1494 rushing yards? Or does he go on to Tomlinson-Barber-SA land? Were his college coachs and the 31 teams that passed on him right, that he's just a speedster now in a great situation? Not much besides the regime has changed in Steelerville, so I take proven production over all else. In redraft, I think he is a value anywhere after spot 5, and you are not crazy if you take him higher -- just a true believer.

mbuehner:
Parker was the #5 RB in fantasy last year, that has to be remembered. 1720 all purpose yards and 16 tds will get you in that 4-7 tier every time. The cool thing about Parker is that he isnt a grinder that needs the 20 carries a game to be successful. Cutting back his touches 15 or 20% wouldnt likely cut his production an equivalent amount, because he is such a dynamic player. If the Steelers with their lighter schedule can generate any kind of non-Parker offense, FWP might lose some touches but gain some TDs.

Parker has built up a pretty nice track record of success at this point. Yes, his trouble against stout defenses is worrisome, but it is also correct that only a few select backs in the league ignore matchups. Parker isnt one of them. But he is very good at what he does well. The most important question FWP answered last year was his goalline ability. He handled 21 of 30 carries inside the 5 for 10 TDs, plus a receiving TD. Thats 11 out of the 18 Steeler touchdowns inside the 5. He is their goalline back, and that is money for a Pittsburgh player.

kensat30:
How can anyone project less than 10 TDs on the ground for Parker? That team is built around running the ball at the goalline, and they proved last year that Parker was their guy after Bettis retired. The guy bulked up to become an all around player instead of just a speed guy, and he was rewarded with a boatload of TDs. For that reason alone, I have to put the guy in my top5 at the RB position for this coming season.

Willie Parker Projections