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Spotlight - QB Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals

Posted on 7/1, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

A quick look at Carson Palmer's year end numbers tells you what most already know; he's one of the NFL's top passers and occupies a place among the rarefied company of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.

• 324 completions (6th in the NFL)
• 520 attempts (7th)
• 62.3% completion
• 4,035 yards (5th)
• 7.8 yards per attempt
• 28 TD passes (2nd)
• 13 INTs
• 5th place fantasy finish

If you thought Palmer was in a good position to duplicate those numbers again in 2007, it would be enough to justify a high fantasy pick on him obviously. But a closer inspection of his 2006 season and the underlying circumstances suggests that Palmer could be in line for an even better season, perhaps MUCH better.

Remember, Palmer tore his ACL in the 2005 playoffs. Most pundits doubted Palmer would be healthy enough to start the 2006 season, much less play all 16 games and deliver a second consecutive Pro Bowl season. Yet, his rehab went well and true to his word, he was under center in Week One. But as you might expect, Palmer had rust to shake off at the start of the season. Mentally, he had lingering doubts about what a big hit could mean to his career. Physically, he lacked peak conditioning.

Take a look at Palmer's fantasy production through the first five weeks:

• 75 completions (19 comps per game)
• 121 attempts (30 atts per game)
• 62% completion
• 917 yards passing (229 yards per game)
• 6 TD passes (1.5 per game)
• 4 INTs (1 per game)
• 19th-ranked fantasy QB

Needless to say, those fantasy owners who rolled the dice on Palmer were lamenting the decision. Did he rush back from injury? Was he hearing the footsteps? But then, after the team's bye week, things began to fall into place. Look at Palmer's numbers over the final 12 games:

• 249 completions (21 comps per game)
• 402 attempts (34 atts per game)
• 62% completion
• 3,119 yards passing (260 yards per game)
• 23 TD passes (1.9 per game)
• 7 INTs (0.6 per game)
• 2nd-ranked fantasy QB

After shaking off the rust, Palmer was one of the league's elite. Patient owners rode his recovery to the fantasy playoffs. Impatient owners probably traded him away and rue the day.

That sets to table for an outstanding 2007 fantasy season. He could, perhaps, return to the top fantasy spot (remember, Palmer was the top fantasy QB in 2005) but at the very list should be a top-3 QB if he remains healthy.

Other considerations:

1. Offensive Line changes -- The Bengals lost a guard but regained a tackle. The press has focused on the loss of All Pro Guard Eric Steinbach in free agency, which is indeed a lost. However, the team gets a healthy LT back after Levi Jones missed 11 games a season ago. With two stud tackles back and a talented Andrew Whitworth ready to play in place of Steinbach, the Bengals offensive line remains one of the AFC's best.
2. WR Corps changes -- As long as stalwarts Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh are around, Palmer is going to be fine. But WR3 Chris Henry is suspended for at least part of the season and his potential replacements (Tab Perry, Antonio Chatman) are unproven.
3. Strength of Schedule -- According to our Ultimate Strength of Schedule, Palmer faces a difficult schedule with just one easy game against four difficult games. Someone of Palmer's talent can easily overcome preseason schedule rankings, but it's still worth mentioning.

Positives

• Palmer is among the league's elite passers, ranking as the top fantasy QB in 2005 and the 5th best fantasy QB last year despite coming off a torn ACL. Over his final 12 games, Palmer was 2nd only to Peyton Manning in fantasy production
• Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh are among the league's best WR tandemns, and both have a long standing rapport with Palmer
• The Bengals defense, ranked 31st a year ago, looks to struggle again in 2007. That means plenty of passing attempts as the team tries to win by outscoring its opponents

Negatives

• Although the offensive line should be solid, the loss of Eric Steinbach does cast some uncertainty on a line that has remained intact for years
• Palmer has an unfavorable schedule according to our Ultimate Strength of Schedule
• Outside of Houshmandzadeh and Johnson, the Bengals lack proven playmakers until (if?) 3WR Chris Henry returns. The lack of a play-making TE and/or solid backup receivers could prove problematic if either CJ or Housh get hurt for a prolonged period

Final Thoughts

Carson Palmer proved a lot of doubters wrong last year, yet in many ways he came away unsatisfied. As long as the offensive line holds up (and it should), it's hard to argue against Palmer not being AT LEAST a top 5 fantasy QB, with a real chance to finish atop the fantasy standings. You're going to have to draft him in the first few rounds, but if you are comfortable with your first two selections and Palmer is there in the 3rd, it's hard to argue against taking him.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

BGP:
Carson Palmer is, quite obviously, the best QB in the AFC North, and may eventually prove to be the best QB in the NFL someday. He has put up some incredible numbers in his first three seasons. His first year was good for a new starter, with 18 TDs to 18 INTs, and 6.7 YPA. That's a high YPA for a rookie. Then he just exploded in year 2 with 32 TDs and 7.5 YPA. He suffers the knee injury, but fortunately the knee isn't nearly as big a factor for a QB than it is a RB or WR, so he posts 28 TDs and 7.8 YPA. He's on an awesome trajectory. He should go down as the great QB in club history. And it must be sweet for their fans to have that guy still early in his career. The loss of LG Eric Steinbech is a concern, but they did spend a second rounder in 2006 on Andrew Whitworth. After seeing him play in 2006 and coupled with the salary demands of Steinbach, the team was ready to let Steinbach go. There's that thing again about constantly taking OL high.

Jene Bramel, FBG Staff:
1/ There will really be only one major change (on the offensive line) from last year -- Andrew Whitworth for Eric Steinbach. Eric Ghaiciuc played 15 games last year for Rich Braham, missing one game to injury, and improved as the season went along. A second camp as the starting center should cement his status with Palmer. I'd be more worried about whether the lower leg injuries both Willie Anderson and Levi Jones struggled with last year will become chronic issues. The depth is okay and the first shuffle may not be too problematic, but any injury is going to hurt more than in previous seasons.

2/ (Considering the backup WR corps) Tab Perry can definitely contribute if he's fully recovered. He's a different kind of player, though, more Kelley Washington than Chris Henry. Antonio Chatman or Bennie Brazell would be the stretch the field types and have similar question marks (age/injury with Chatman and youth/injury with Brazell). Definite issue here. I don't think it's an offense killer, but it could definitely be a high level stat killer for Palmer.

mbuehner:
Whats not to like? The only problem i have with Palmer is that somebody else is going to draft him before i will in all my leagues Palmer is one of those guys that at least one owner in every league is in love with (at least!) After Manning I would be thrilled to have Brady, Brees, or Bulger- and wouldn't mind rolling the dice on McNabb. And there's nothing wrong with waiting till late and using the shotgun approach with maybe Rivers, Favre, and a dark horse like Cutler or Kitna. Bottom line- Palmer is going to be excellent but he may be overvalued simply because there are a lot of good options at QB this year that are undervalued.

Carson Palmer Projections