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Spotlight - RB Jerious Norwood, Atlanta Falcons

Posted on 7/30, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

In an offseason of unexpected turmoil, there are few sure things in Atlanta at this time. Entering training camp, the team's offensive linchpin is under federal indictment and it's most productive veteran runner underwent surgery and will most most, if not all, of training camp. Add to that a new coaching staff installing new systems on both sides of the ball, and questions on both the defensive and offensive lines, it's hard to paint an optimistic picture about the fantasy prospects of any Falcon. That is, except for 2nd year runner Jerious Norwood.

Let me be clear, before the Vick and Dunn situations arose, I was already of the belief that Norwood would see at least 50% of the RB touches and enjoy a true breakout season. Now that Dunn is on the mend and Vick is out of the picture, I see absolutely no reason why Norwood shouldn't be considered EXCELLENT value in fantasy drafts.

At 5'11", 205 pounds, Norwood isn't built like a typical ball-carrier. But he runs low to the ground, is decisive in his cutbacks and showed an extra gear last season that few others can match. Consider that, in 99 carries, Norwood rushed for 633 yards; an astounding 6.4 yards per carry. While 99 carries is too small a sample set to get overly excited about, it's still interesting to compare his accomplishment to that of other young runners.

Here is the list of the top-20 yards-per-carry averages by a rookie RB (1970-2006, Min: 50 carries). As you can see, Norwood ranks 3rd all-time. That's the good news. You'll also note that the list has a handful of truly dominant runners (e.g., Sanders, Harris, Portis). But we can hardly call this list conclusive given the presence of other non-factors like Byron Hanspard and Mewelde Moore. If anything, this tells us not to get too excited by Norwood's high per-carry average, in and of itself.

But when you overlay Norwood's OPPORTUNITY with the explosiveness he showed last year, things look appealing. Let's assume Michael Vick doesn't play this year, but that Warrick Dunn makes a speedy recover and plays the full 16-game schedule. It's still hard not to imagine Norwood will garner at least 200 touches.

Point 1: HC Bobby Petrino believes in running the ball, A LOT -- While Petrino is considered a QB guru known for intricate passing attacks; his tenure at Louisville was quite run-intensive. Over his four seasons as Louisville head coach:

• 2006 -- 385 passes, 482 rushes
• 2005 -- 376 passes, 472 rushes
• 2004 -- 359 passes, 534 rushes
• 2003 -- 395 passes, 518 rushes
• AVG -- 379 passes, 502 rushes (57% run percentage)

Point 2: The RB touches in Atlanta have to go up this year -- People get too fixated on Atlanta's "league leading ground attack" when thinking about 2007 projections. Yes, the Falcons did lead the league in rushing attempts, yardage and yards-per-rush last season, but that INCLUDES all positions, with Michael Vick contributing more than 1,000-yards himself. Take a look at how Atlanta has ranked for rushing attempts BY THE RB CORPS ONLY:

• 2006 -- 405 attempts (15th in NFL)
• 2005 -- 416 attempts (14th in NFL)
• 2004 -- 385 attempts (21st in NFL)
• 2003 -- 367 attempts (25th in NFL)
• 2002 -- 400 attempts (8th in NFL)

With a pocket passer now under center, you can be sure the Falcons will run the ball with their RBs more this year. Even if the RBs "only" get 420-450 attempts combined, there's a very good chance Norwood will see at least 50% of those touches, if Dunn is healthy. If he's not healthy, Norwood could well push toward 280-300 rushing attempts.

Positives

• Bobby Petrino is far more committed to the run game than people realize, and the RB corps has to carry a much larger load with Vick out of the picture
• Norwood was already in line for an increased workload, but with Warrick Dunn having surgery in July, Norwood will run with the first team during most, if not all, of training camp
• The Falcons added mauler guard Justin Blalock to an offensive line that was already effective at run-blocking

Negatives

• Norwood excelled last year in the Falcon's one-cut zone-blocking scheme, something the team is moving away from this season (to a traditional in-line blocking scheme)
• Warrick Dunn is now expected to miss only "3 to 4 weeks" which could mean this is going to be more of a committee approach than I'm forecasting
• The turmoil this offseason could lead to a disappointing offense from top to bottom, particularly if Joey Harrington can hold his own. That would mean far less opportunity for Norwood, particularly in terms of short-yardage scoring chances

Final Thoughts

According to the most recent ADP data available, Norwood is being drafted 29th among runners and 57th overall. That's a phenomenal value for a back who has an excellent chance of garnering 250+ touches on a team suddenly in desperate need of playmakers. With Warrick Dunn on the wrong side of 30 and in line to miss most of training camp, Norwood will be counted on as the linchpin of Bobby Petrino's new offensive system. As long as he can stay healthy and performs well in camp, there's no reason Norwood shouldn't be on your short list in the 5th or 6th round as an excellent fantasy option. Draft accordingly.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

rzrback77:
Jerious Norwood was drafted in the third round in 2006 primarily based on his lack of size. He is 6'-0" and weighs only 204. He is said to be chicken legged. He was extremely successful playing for Mississippi State, where he stood out even without much help on offense and a sub-standard for the Southeastern Conference, offensive line. He carried a full college load with 195 carries for 1050 yards (5.4 ypc) in 11 games as a junior and followed up with 191 rushes for 1136 yards (5.9 ypc) in 11 games in his senior campaign. He scored 7 and 6 TDs in those two seasons.

He was extremely effective in his rookie season with Atlanta spelling Warrick Dunn carrying 99 times for 633 yards (6.4 ypc) and scoring 2 TDs. He was electric when he got out in space. However, he was injured a time or two and missed two games. I definitely think that there will be some type of RBBC between Dunn and Norwood, but if Dunn is not ready, or he has an injury, then Norwood COULD present very nice value, depending on whether Dunn looks like he will play or not. Because, Norwood's ADP could rise significantly if Dunn appears to be out or playing a reduced role.

kensat30:
I think Dunn (if he makes a speedy recover) is in line to be the starter in Atlanta, but Norwood has the chance to surpass him by the time the season is done. Similar to Indy last year with Rhodes and Addai. Yet unlike the Rhodes and Addai situation, people are not overvaluing Norwood due to the rookie/unknown factor. It's pretty surprising to me, considering how well Norwood performed last year both in the preseason and during spot duty in real games. The guy is a definite player and homerun threat ala Reggie Bush. The seller for me is that don't have to drop a 4th round pick on the guy in most redraft leagues, and I believe he can easily perform at that level. If something happens to Dunn or the new coaching staff decides to run with Norwood, there is a HUGE latent potential there as well. Major value as a RB3/4 in a middle round. Only other guys I would select over him in a similar range are Julius Jones and Ahman Green.

FTRWRTR:
Anyone dropping Dunn or Norwood in their drafts because of Vick's indictment doesn't know what their doing. As others have said Vick not being out helps the running game not hurt it. A passing game that keeps defenses honest helps out RB much more than a mobile QB does not only does that mean less carries will be taken away but also defenses won't keep a lb up close as they normally do.

Jerious Norwood Projections