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Spotlight - WR Muhsin Muhammad, Carolina Panthers

Posted on 7/1, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Mark Wimer's Thoughts

Looking at Muhsin Muhammad from the fantasy perspective is a study in the contrasts between being a top NFL receiver (Muhammad has led the Bears in receiving each of the last 2 seasons) and being a top fantasy wide receiver. Since leaving the Carolina Panthers and his final explosive season there (93/1405/16), Muhammad has been relegated to fantasy production in the WR #3 range, with 136 targets for 64 receptions, 750 yards and 4 TDs during 2005 (#37 fantasy WR) and 117 targets for 60/863/5 last season (30^th fantasy WR). While he hasn't been a fantasy bust in Chicago, so far Muhammad hasn't been a fantasy standout, either. Looking forward to 2007, there are reasons for optimism about the Muhammad's coming season.

First of all, Rex Grossman was finally able to stay on the field for 16 games last year (he managed only 8 games played during the first 3 years of his career) --- in effect, Grossman was a first-year starter who had only seen spot duty prior to 2006. While his performance was uneven (and generally speaking, not very impressive during the playoffs), there were weeks in which Grossman seemed to "get it" -- he had 7 games with multiple TDs and 6 games with 250+ yards passing during the 2006 campaign. Entering 2007, Grossman has a full year of experience to build on, and he has been working with a new QB coach -- Pep Hamilton - entering the 2007 training camps. Grossman's fundamentals seem to be improving as a result of the coaching, according to reports out of Chicago. "We're trying to get everything [to be] muscle memory so I don't think about keeping two hands on the ball or stepping up, it just comes naturally," Grossman said in late May. "Pep Hamilton's been great and I'm excited that he's here working with me." The year's experience and the reps with his QB coach should help Grossman's chemistry with Muhammad and Bernard Berrian, his other starting wideout.

Speaking of Berrian, his emergence last season helped loosen up coverage for Muhammad, which is the second reason for optimism about Muhammad's upcoming season. Back in 2005, when there was not a clear-cut #2 WR for the Bears, Muhammad averaged a mere 11.7 yards per catch. Last year, with Berrian gathering in 51/775/6 (a 15.2 yards-per-catch average) across from Muhammad, the later player's average rose to 14.4 yards per catch. Teams couldn't just blanket Muhammad and dare the Bears to pass thanks to the menace of Berrian on the other side of the field.

Another factor that might help the Bears to fire up their passing game this year is that Thomas Jones has moved on to the Jets --- and presumptive starter Cedric Benson hasn't been a prolific pass-catcher in his appearances to date. With Benson pounding the ball in Chicago's grind-it-out attack, some of the receptions that formerly went to Jones may end up in the receivers' hands during 2007. There is no doubt, though, that the Bears are a run-first team that is often involved in low-scoring slug-fests -- not exactly the sort of offense that throws for a lot of yardage on a regular basis -- Grossman surpassed 300 yards passing only once last year, during a 15 game vs. Tampa Bay (339 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions).

On the downside, Muhammad isn't getting any younger (he's 34, and entering his 12^th NFL season) -- but Muhammad has only missed 1 regular season appearance in the last 3 years, and there are no lingering injury issues to worry about entering 2007. However, with 12 seasons of wear-and-tear behind Muhammad, one has to wonder how much gas he has left in his tank. From week 16 through the Super Bowl, Muhammad topped out at 3/64/0 vs. Detroit, and didn't catch more than 3 passes in any of the final 5 games -- he did snag a TD in the Super Bowl (3/35/1), but that was his only score after week 14 of the regular season. With fantasy playoffs usually occurring in weeks 15-16 of the regular season, fantasy teams with Muhammad on the roster didn't get the sort of explosive performances that win championships last year (6/85/0 week 15 vs. Tampa Bay, 3/64/0 week 16 vs. Detroit).

Positives

• Muhammad is on the top of the depth chart in Chicago (with no outstanding WRs behind the starters to threaten Muhammad's playing time) -- he should see plenty of opportunities to catch the football this year.
• Rex Grossman's professional development should hopefully help even out production in the passing department during 2007.
• There are no known injury issues to worry about with Muhammad entering 2007.

Negatives

• Muhammad's advancing age and slow-down at the end of the 2006 season/post season raise questions about his ability to maintain production throughout 2007.
• The Bears' offense isn't pass oriented, and the bad weather in the waning months of the year can make Soldier Field a very challenging place to throw the ball -- during the fantasy playoff push/playoffs.
• We don't know for certain that Grossman is going to progress in his development as a pro QB -- he could remain unpredictable or (even worse), regress -- which could make owning a Chicago WR frustrating during 2007.

Final Thoughts

Muhsin Muhammad is a consummate pro wideout, who should remain one of the best targets available to Chicago QBs during 2007. He's unlikely to return to his world-beating 2004 form, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see him land among the top 30 at his position in fantasy points again this year, with some potential upside if the Bears' young QB becomes steadier during 2007.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

rzrback77:s
Muhammad is entering his twelfth season and third in Chicago. He has had a few big seasons finishing number one in 04 and in the top twenty two other times. But, in Chicago, he has finished 37th and 30th. I see little hope in him finishing that high in 07. He enters the year at age 34 and that is not too old to have an awesome season, but he is surrounded by young players. Grossman (the guy everybody likes to say is still sort of a rookie LOL) is the other old hand at 27 entering his fifth season and hardly displays stability. The WR corps features Berrian (26), Mark Bradley (25), Devin Hester (24), and possibly Rashied Davis (28). There is also a new TE in town, Greg Olsen (22) to team with Desmond Clark, the geezer (30).

All of these guys (that make the team) will see some targets and Muhammad will see less. Similar to Berrian, Muhammad's success was wildly variable in 06. He also scored less than five points in eight games. He had four from five to ten, six from ten to fifteen, and only one above fifteen. And I think that it gets worse in 07. He has a low ADP of WR 46 and 131 overall, but it is appropriate.

perry147:
Bernard Berrian might over take him as the bears #1 WR this year but this is kinda like watching a fight between two old people in walkers. There really is no clear winner and sometimes it is better just not too play. In other worlds - I would avoid this situation unless perhaps as a #3 WR on a larger league or maybe as a bye week fill in.

Phlash:
Tough, over the middle guy. Won't be putting up any seasons like he did in '04 any time soon, though.

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