All Spotlights • Laurence Maroney Player Page • NE Projections • RB Projections • RB Rankings • NE Team Report

Spotlight - RB Laurence Maroney, New England Patriots

Posted on 7/20, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Laurence Maroney is a fascinating fantasy prospect this season. Putting aside any injury considerations, Maroney seems ideally suited to emerge as a top-10 fantasy back and perennial stud. Last year, Maroney was integrated into the Patriots explosive offense slowly, thanks to the presence of veteran tailback Corey Dillon. It was a true RBBC (running-back-by-committee) approach:

• Maroney -- 175 carries for 745 yards and 6 rush TDs, 22 receptions for 194 yards and 1 TD
• Dillon -- 199 carries for 812 yards and 13 rush TDs, 15 receptions for 147 yards and 0 TDs

Despite Dillon's considerable productivity a year ago, the Patriots didn't hesitate to part ways with him and hand the full-time job to Maroney. That's saying something when you consider Dillon wasn't very costly and depth is a critical consideration. Obviously, the Patriots coaching staff believes Maroney can and will flourish in a full-time role.

Even if you assume some combination of Kevin Faulk, Sammy Morris and Heath Evans vulture some of Dillon's lost output, it doesn't take a mathematician to see what kind of potential Maroney has by picking up more of the workload:

But can Maroney handle the short-yardage duties?

Last year, Maroney was not an effective goal-line rusher, converting only 3 of 8 (38%) attempts. That compares to Dillon's conversion of 9 of 14 attempts (64%). But we're talking about a small sample size so it's best not to get too overwhelmed by Maroney's numbers. In college, at the University of Minnesota, Maroney was a beast in short yardage; and his low center of gravity and strong leg push point to someone that's ideally suited to handle short yardage carries at the NFL level. And while his goal line numbers weren't stellar, he proved himself adequate in short yardage, converting 60% (21 of 35) of his short yardage rushed (3 yards or shorter) into first downs.

While it's reasonable to project fewer short yardage TDs this year, the lack of anyone else on the roster to really challenge Maroney for those touches suggests he's likely to at least push for double digits (the Patriots had 20 rushing TDs last season).

OK, so he's got a great opportunity but what about THE SHOULDER?

In March, it was revealed that Maroney underwent shoulder surgery and had "fairly significant damage." The Patriots have been mum about the details, as has the talented back himself. In earl July, HC Bill Belichick said he was hopeful that Maroney would be ready for the start of camp, but wasn't putting any official timetable on the situation.

When you're a power back, significant shoulder damage is not something to be taken lightly. The Patriots, notoriously tight lipped, have given no reason for us to discount the potential risk of this injury, either. However, one would HOPE that the Patriots would've been more proactive on shoring up the RB corps if they were really concerned about the long-term impact. Think about it, why would the Patriots, who have been reloading for a Super Bowl run, leave their fate to Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk if Maroney's shoulder was a real concern?

Given Maroney's current ADP (11^th overall, 10^th RB); plenty of people believe the shoulder isn't a concern. While I tend to agree, I would say two things.

1. If he does practice and play in preseason games, he should be drafted HIGHER than 1.11; because a healthy Maroney = a top 5-8 fantasy prospect
2. If he fails to practice or suffers a clear setback with a big hit, he should be avoided anywhere in the first two rounds

But aren't the Patriots going to throw the ball, A LOT this year?

Let's see...the Patriots go out and acquire Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth, Wes Welker, Kelley Washington, Kyle Brady, and re-sign Troy Brown. It's certainly fair to say the Patriots plan on throwing the ball early and often this year. But there's a misnomer if you think the Patriots are going to abandon the balance that has been their hallmark under Belichick and Brady. The Patriots will win games through the air sometimes, and they'll win games on the ground when the opportunity presents itself. Don't over think things, a healthy Maroney will get his chances. Remember, last year the Patriots ran for 20 TDs, even if the run/pass ratio in the red zone were to skew heavily toward the passing game, there's still room for Maroney to run for 8-10 rushing scores, minimum.

Positives

• Maroney displayed the complete skill set last year while splitting carries with Corey Dillon. He runs well inside, has the elusiveness to bounce outside, and is a more than adequate receiver.
• The Patriots let Dillon walk and did nothing substantive to bring in more RB talent, this is clearly Maroney's job provided his health is OK.
• The Patriots win games with balance, and are sure to be among the most productive offenses in the NFL. That means lots of sustained drives and plenty of red zone opportunities.

Negatives

• The shoulder injury is, and will remain, a major risk until we see Maroney take a pounding for a few preseason games, at least.
• Maroney failed to convert 5 of 8 goal-line rushes last year; he must improve on that to retain short yardage duties throughout the season.
• Given Maroney's shoulder injury, the presence of Kevin Faulk (receiving) and Sammy Morris (short yardage), and a deep WR corps, it's possible the Patriots could opt to keep his workload much lighter than we project.

Final Thoughts

WATCH THE SHOULDER. If Maroney's shoulder checks out, he's worth more than the 11th pick in redrafts; which means you get a potential leg up taking him there at the turn if you pick 10th-12th. BUT, if he sits out of practice and/or fails to get any work in preseason game action, tread cautiously because this isn't the kind of injury a back can play through effectively. Either it's healed, or it's not. Draft accordingly.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Biabreakable:
There is some uncertainty surrounding Maroney's future that stems from him always being a part of a RBBC. In college and also in his 1st year as a pro. I do not see Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk as great threats to Maroney's opportunity at this time but it is possible that the Patriots may add another RB to time share with him. There are concerns about his health (shoulder) and overall durability as well. The Patriots offensive skill players have changed greatly this offseason which adds to the uncertainty and speculation surrounding this offense. Moreso than the majority of other offenses in the NFL who have more stability in thier personnel to draw patterns from.

Bull Dozier:
Only once has a NE RB carries the ball 300+ times for Belichick in a single season, Dillon a couple of years ago. However, I don't think any back has been as good as Maroney, so I could see him reaching the 300+ carry level if not for the increased number of passing game weapons. I think 300 carries would be Maroney's ceiling with 275 more likely.

shadyridr:
I'm thinking when all is said and done Maroney is this year's bust RB. He will be taken in the 1st round by many but I dont think you can take his shoulder injury lightly. Last year after he was hurt I saw a tentative RB that tiptoed to the line. With all reports stating that he is still hurting what makes you think he will hit the hole hard this year. I think he will have a very average year and will be playing scared/hurt. I think Kevin Faulk gets a lot of playing time and is an immediate sleeper and I wouldn't be surprised if the Patriots sign another RB. Ill say Maroney is this years version of Kevan Barlow from a few years ago when he was a consensus 1st rd pick.

Laurence Maroney Projections