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Spotlight - RB Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills

Posted on 7/1, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Mike Brown's Thoughts

The Bills thought they were set for years at the running back position after Travis Henry emerged as the feature back several years ago. Despite that, they selected Willis McGahee in the first round to be their running back of the future. Although McGahee excelled in his first shot at the top spot, two substandard seasons later left the Bills with a decision to make. Either tie up big money in an underperforming and unhappy McGahee, or deal him away and start from scratch. Buffalo opted for the latter, and McGahee is now a Baltimore Raven. Meanwhile, Lynch was happily snapped up with the twelfth pick of the first round in last April's draft. He certainly comes with some question marks, but with enough upside to justify making him such a high pick.

Lynch enjoyed a stellar college career, averaging a gaudy 6.6 yards per carry average over his three years. Included in that were back-to-back 1,000 yard campaigns in his sophomore and junior seasons. He was very much a home-run threat, as evidenced by several very long touchdown runs that showed off his electric open-field abilities. Lynch also proved to be very adept as a receiver, hauling in 34 passes in his final year at school. It was his all-around game that intrigued the Bills enough to draft him when he was available at their turn. Buffalo seeks to showcase him as the team's featured back and running back of the future, and is in the process of building up the offense to hopefully revolve around him for years.

As a rookie just entering the league, no one knows for sure how his game will translate to the pros, but he is certainly in a position to contribute, if not excel. Most observers feel that he is pretty "NFL ready" and that his impact on the field will be significant and immediate.

Positives

• Lynch is considered "NFL-ready" after playing at the University of California in a pro-style offense, meaning that he won't have to face many of the same adjustments some other players face after coming into the league from an option offense, etc.
• Much like Ronnie Brown, Lynch doesn't have a glaring weakness to his game. He's not incredibly powerful, but he more than makes up for that in shiftiness and elusiveness. And also like Brown, he wasn't beaten up repeatedly during his college career because he shared carries.
• The Bills offense is expected to be vastly improved, especially considering they are using the same offense two years in a row for the first time in years. The overall offensive continuity will help everyone on offense perform better, which in turn will help Lynch adjust easier.

Negatives

• While it certainly decreased the wear and tear on his body, the fact that Lynch shared the carries at Cal means he's never been asked to carry the load for anything close to a 16-game regular season. He's not a huge bruising back, so the possibility to wear down is definitely a concern.
• The presence of Anthony Thomas in the backfield means that Lynch will have to be dominant in order to get a huge number of carries. The team would likely prefer to ease Lynch into the role slowly (though it is expected to be his job at some point).
• The off-season wasn't great for Lynch, between rumors of a mysterious back injury (that is apparently not an issue) combined with a sexual assault accusation (no charges were filed). These aren't expected to be lingering issues for him, but it's certainly not something you WANT to hear about a guy just entering the league.

Final Thoughts

Our official projections on site see a roughly 2:1 split in the carries between Lynch and Thomas. I think that sounds about right, though I think it'll be a tiny bit more than that in favor of Lynch. You'll probably see Lynch eased into the role sometime during the early part of the year, because clearly the goal will be to make sure he's ready for it -- it won't happen because the team anticipates getting huge production from Anthony Thomas, for sure.

The difference in my opinion of Lynch on the whole lies in my opinion of how effective the Buffalo running game will be. The offensive line is vastly improved, with several key additions being made to upgrade. Not to mention, J.P. Losman enjoyed a breakout year in 2006 and appears poised to build upon that success. I think that, for the first time since Drew Bledsoe's first year in Buffalo, the Bills could enjoy a lot of offensive success. And it won't just help Lynch; it'll be due in large part because of Lynch. Adrian Peterson is, at this point, clearly more talented than Lynch and has a better long-term outlook. But for 2007 alone, Lynch is in a very good spot to perform and excel. And the main reason is because he won't be relied upon to BE the offense right at the outset.

One of the best things about Lynch is that you don't have to go crazy to reach for him. Most people remember the Buffalo offense featuring Willis McGahee the past few years, and it's tough to get very excited about middling production from a second round pick. Use the hesitancy of others to your advantage by snapping up Lynch later than most other featured runners, and make him your RB3 or rotate him with a middle-round back that can hold you over for awhile. Because once Lynch lands that job to himself around the quarter point of the season, he's not going to let it go very easily. And he'll be in a prime position to help you out for the stretch run and fantasy playoffs (when they face the Browns and Giants -- not exactly defensive stalwarts against the run).

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

ConstruxBoy:
I expect a bit of a Bell Curve from Lynch this season. I think that starts off a little slowly as he learns the offense and gains the trust of Jauron with his blocking skills. Then he should hit his stride through the middle of the season on a Bills offense that will be a little better than expected, but is facing a tougher schedule than I think most realize. Finally around week 13 or so I expect him to hit the rookie wall, as most do, especially given that he did share some of the load at Cal.

EBF:
Lynch is not JJ Arrington. Anyone who watches Pac-10 football can tell you that there's a world of difference between these two.

And what does the history of Cal RBs have to do with Lynch's odds for success? There were no great TCU RBs until Tomlinson. Every player is a unique event. To dismiss him based on the failures of past Cal RBs would be a mistake.

Lynch lacks the elite burst to be one of the best RBs in the NFL, but he should develop into an average starter if he keeps his head screwed on straight. He has a great opportunity to step in and immediately produce as Buffalo's opening day starter. I look for something like:

rzrback77:
Follow up for the rookie running backs with over 100 fantasy points:

Six in 06, but only three with over 1000 total yards. Addai led with 1406 yds, then MJ Drew at 1377 yds, and Bush at 1307 yds. Lots of TDs with the 06 RBs, five over seven TDs and Drew with 15.

Three in 05, but 1259 total yds by Cadillac Williams was the max and Brown with 1139 yds was the only other over 1,000. More normal TDs at 7, 6 and 5 for the three rookies.

Four in 04, and again two over 1,000 total yds. Kevin Jones led with 1313 and Willis McGahee had 1297. Willis sored 13 TDs and the rest with 7, 6 and 4.

Two in 03 and only one over 1,000 total yds. Dom (Davis) Williams with 1382 yds and 8 TDs. The other rookie had 5 TDs.

Three in 02 and all three topped 1,000 total yds. Portis led the way with 1877 yds and 17 TDs, the top rookie performer over the past five seasons. Shipp had 1247 yds and 9 TDs. William Green had 1,000 yds exactly and 6 TDs.

In summary, out of all the rookie RBs over the past five years, only two have topped 1400 total yards. Portis at 1872 yds in 02 and Addai with 1406 yds last year. Both of these two were associated with solid rushing offenses. Several (nine) had between 1,000 and 1,400 total yds for their rookie years.

Even with the statistics error and the increased list of effective rookie RBs, I believe that Buffalo will run an RBBC as their coach has stated this off season. It may be Anthony Thomas and it may be somebody else not yet on the Bills roster, but I will hold to my original projection:

Marshawn Lynch Projections