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Spotlight - RB Jamal Lewis, Cleveland Browns

Posted on 6/24, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jeff Pasquino's Thoughts

Jamal Lewis left the Baltimore Ravens behind this offseason, signing to be the new starting tailback for the Cleveland Browns. Both the Ravens and Lewis needed to make a change, as Baltimore looked for a new running back to reinvigorate their run game and Lewis could stand to benefit from a change of scenery.  Rumors were strong in the off-season that Lewis would not return, and with the likelihood of another RB coming to town (later confirmed with the trade for Willis McGahee) he moved on to another team in the AFC North.

There are many questions about how Lewis will do in Cleveland, and unfortunately there aren't a lot of answers just yet.  All we can do is look at the past performances of Lewis and also the Cleveland run game and take our best guess as to how the two will mesh for 2007. 

Lewis has not been the same rusher since 2003, where he set the world on fire as a tailback by breaking the 2,000 yard mark.  In 2004 he lost four games due to legal issues, and in 2005 and 2006 he just was not the same running back.  His average per carry plummeted below the 4.0 mark, the metric commonly used to separate the good backs from the average ones.  Prior to 2005, Lewis always averaged 4.3 per carry or more, but in the past two seasons he has logged a paltry 3.4 and 3.6 yards for each season.

As often is the case, there is more to it than just the numbers.  Watching the Ravens many times last season, I saw Lewis look much more like a tentative runner who seemed hesitant to attack the line of scrimmage and fight for the extra yardage.  It was almost as if he was unwilling to take the contact that had made him the force that he was in the 2003 season. 

In the past few months, the story came out that Lewis had ankle issues all year and needed surgery to clean out bone spurs.  Whether his lack of aggressive running was completely due to his ankle is a huge question, but in my opinion it will be very difficult for Lewis to go back to that attack mode after changing his style last season.

Looking at the positives for Jamal Lewis, time is on his side -- which may surprise many. He turns 28 this August, which is significant since two key numbers have arisen for many running backs over the years to show a point of declining performance.  One is age (31 and over), and the other is total touches (rushes plus receptions).  That number, 2,500, is still a good two seasons away for Lewis as well, who is just under the 2,000 touch line for his career.

So how does all this relate to Cleveland? The Browns have been trying for several seasons to improve their offense and the offensive line in particular.  Injuries and lackluster performances have kept the Browns from fielding many competitive squads, but Cleveland is closer to having an improved line and offense than in years past.  Lewis will be the primary running back and the focus of the offensive ground game.  Whether they can establish a solid and consistent running attack in 2007 still remains to be seen.

Positives

• Jamal Lewis is on the right side of two key numbers -- age (28) and total career touches (under 2,000)
• Lewis will be the primary ball carrier for Cleveland all season
• Off-season surgery has repaired an injured ankle, affording Lewis better mobility and giving him more dexterity to use in cutting in and out of holes
• The Browns have improved their offensive line, even before selecting Joe Thomas at the #3 pick in the 2007 NFL Draft
• The Browns were a young team last year, and with three challengers at QB (Brady Quinn, Derek Anderson and Charlie Frye) along with WR Braylon Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow Jr. there is strong potential to improve as an entire unit in 2007
• The Cleveland defense is improving, which should keep the Browns in closer games. That can only help Jamal Lewis and the Cleveland ground game

Negatives

• Jamal Lewis has not averaged over four yards per carry since 2004
• The Cleveland rushing attack was abysmal in 2006, so even marked improvement may only result in an average result
• Despite many improvements, Cleveland is still regarded as the fourth best team in their division. They will be struggling to compete all year, and if they trail often the running game will suffer
• Instability and inexperience at the quarterback position will allow defenses to stop the run first and force the Browns to win games through the air
• Jamal Lewis is not known for his receiving skills, so his potential to contribute in the passing game is minimal. He also may be removed in third down and clear passing situations

Final Thoughts

Predicting Jamal Lewis' performance in 2007 is not easy.  There are many reasons to expect him to improve on the 2006 Cleveland rushing attack, yet there are also many key arguments and points that lead you to believe just the opposite.  Will Lewis return to his impressive 2003 performance level, or will his uninspiring play of the last two seasons be reproduced yet again?

I believe that Lewis' upside is somewhere about 1,200 yards and maybe eight or nine touchdowns, but I think even that many is wishful thinking.  There are enough reasons to think that he will get the lion's share of the work in 2007, but there are also ample reasons to believe that the 4.0 yard per carry mark will remain an unbroken barrier for Lewis and the Browns this year.  I think that Lewis will get over 250 carries and nearly 300 touches, but few of them will be as a receiver.  Look for another younger RB candidate to emerge in training camp (Jerome Harrison, Jason Wright or Lawrence Vickers) as the third down back for the Browns, and head coach Romeo Crennel will remove Lewis in passing situations.

The bottom line for me is that I see Jamal Lewis as no better than a RB3 in Fantasy Football for this season.  My prediction for 2007 for Lewis is 275 carries, 1050 yards (3.8 YPC), and six touchdowns, coupled with 13 catches for 110 yards.

The difficulty in looking at Jamal Lewis in this manner is that, based solely on these numbers, he would be about the 25th best RB last season.  However, given the difficult schedule and the fact that many fantasy football contests are played on a weekly basis rather than a season long event, I think it would be difficult to feel comfortable to start Lewis every week.  Lewis makes for a solid option as a RB3 and a good value as a RB4 for fantasy purposes in 2007.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

BGP:
Jamal Lewis hasn't looked like the same RB as he did when he was younger. He's looked slow and hasn't scared anyone. The Browns have spent a lot of money to acquire a top LG and a top prospect at LT.

1. The improves to the OL may or may not work out.

Winning the line of scrimmage usually doesn't mean having one tremendous offseason and then reaping the fruits of that for 8-10 years. It is a commitment. Look at the Steelers and Patriots - the two most dominant franchises in the AFC this decade. Look at their drafts, and how they spent their first 4 picks. They both have grabbed 7 OL in the first four rounds since 2001. Not all of them work out, but they take them in volume. They select OL prospects even when the need doesn't seem great. I'm not trying to be critical of the Browns, I'm saying that this is a good START for the Browns, but they need to stay committed to winning the LOS. THEY HAVEN'T PROVEN THEY CAN DOMINATE THE LINE OF SCRIMMAGE ON OFFENSE YET.

2. Jamal Lewis himself may or may not work out.

For this section, let's assume the Browns have constructed a strong OL. That doesn't mean Jamal Lewis may be the guy in 2007. Again, let's look at the Patriots and Steelers, who build a strong OL and keep it strong. Fast Willie Parker was some undrafted FA, but he came out of nowhere and became a force. The Patriots grabbed Antowain Smith off the scrap heap and won a super bowl. When you build a strong OL, it creates a great opportunity for an unknown or forgotten player to come out of nowhere. If its not Jamal Lewis, but the OL is strong, it could be that someone on the depth chart shines - Jason Wright, Jerome Harrison, and Lawrence Vickers. Some undrafted RB who isn't even on the team yet could come in and take the job.

David Yudkin, FBG Staff:
We the FBG staff were just asked to do a first pass of over/under valued players. While I don't believe I picked Lewis I probably should have. His ADP was RB31/75th overall. That's the 7th round for a guy that should see the ball 300 times. Even if he's not very productive, he should get 1100-1200 yards low end and a handful of scores. I doubt' he'll be earth shattering but you can do much worse value wise than Lewis.

rzrback77:
First the good news for Jamal Lewis, Cleveland has surely improved their line with several new acquisitions. But, offensive lines are usually better when you have confinuity.

Now let's look at the Cleveland Browns running back efficiency over the past three years:

04 - 386 rushes for 1444 yards (3.7 ypc) and 4 TDs
05 - 354 rushes for 1361 yards (3.8 ypc) and 3 TDs
06 - 313 rushes for 1023 yards (3.3 ypc) and 4 TDs

Wow, that's worse than bad.

Now let's look at Jamal Lewis:

05 - 269 rushes for 906 yards (3.4 ypc) 3 TDs and 32 catches for 191 yds and 1 TD
06 - 314 rushes for 1332 yards (3.6 ypc) 9 TDs and 18 catches for 115 yds and 0 TDs

I believe that we have a match here. I seriously doubt that Cleveland will be in the lead in many games, so I just don't see them running the ball a lot more than their recent history.

Jamal Lewis Projections