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Spotlight - QB Matt Leinart, Arizona Cardinals

Posted on 7/20, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

A lot of fantasy owners are intrigued by Matt Leinart's fantasy prospects this season, and well they should be. After all, he acquitted himself reasonably well as a rookie thrust into an untenable situation, and now benefits from a new coaching staff that, come hell or high water, is going to put an emphasis on building a cohesive offensive line. Leinart plays in a temperate climate, in a brand new stadium, and has weapons that would make most signal callers drool:

Larry Fitzgerald -- Averaged 77 catches, 1,045 yards and 8 TDs in his first 3 seasons
Anquan Boldin -- Averaged 85 catches, 1,150 yards and 5 TDs in his first 4 seasons
Bryant Johnson -- Averaged 41 catches, 529 yards and 2 TDs in his first 4 seasons

If that weren't enough, the Cardinals have an all-purpose running back in Edgerrin James who, with a solid offensive line in front of him, should rack up yards, keep drives alive and make opposing defenses keep an extra man in the box.

But there's a major consideration that we haven't discussed, the Cardinals run/pass ratio and how that's going to change with Ken Whisenhunt in charge. Let's be clear, Whisenhunt and Assistant Head Coach Russ Grimm absolutely want the Cardinals to run the ball, a LOT. In fact, Ken Whisenhunt said he would ideally like the Cardinals to run the ball 550 times this season.

Here's the good news for Leinart owners, the Cardinals aren't going to run the ball 550 times this year. How do I know that? Because teams rarely if ever run that much, and those who have share a) a dominating defense, and b) a dominating offensive line. Neither descriptor fits the Cardinals as currently constituted. Over the last five years, only two teams ('04 Steelers, '03 Ravens) have gone for 550+ attempts.

But here's the bad news; the Cardinals ARE going to run more than they did last year. The Cardinals were 26^th in rushing attempts (419 rushes) last year; while they ranked 7^th in passing attempts (546).

Let's say, for the sake of argument, the Cardinals split the middle between Whisenhunt's stated goal (550 carries) and last year's tally (419 carries)...

Average (550,419) = 484.5 carries

Assuming the Cardinals project to league norms for offensive possessions, that leaves them with 475-500 passing attempts.

Now here's where things get REALLY interesting...Matt Leinart, for all his promise last year, really wasn't a very productive fantasy QB. Leinart benefited from an extremely high number of pass attempts. On a PER ATTEMPT basis, he was well below league average.

Of the 45 QBs that attempted at least 100 passes last year, Leinart ranked 33^rd in fantasy points per passing attempt.

Rank	First	Last	Comp	Atts	PaYds	PaTD	INTs	FPTs	FanPPG
1	Donovan	McNabb	180	316	2647	18	6	198.4	0.628
2	Tony	Romo	220	337	2903	19	13	208.2	0.618
3	Peyton	Manning	362	557	4397	31	9	334.9	0.601
4	Jay	Cutler	81	137	1001	9	5	81.1	0.592
5	Carson	Palmer	324	520	4035	28	13	300.8	0.578
6	Drew	Brees	356	554	4418	26	11	313.9	0.567
7	Damon	Huard	148	244	1878	11	1	136.9	0.561
8	Jeff	Garcia	116	188	1309	10	2	103.5	0.550
9	Philip	Rivers	284	460	3388	22	9	248.4	0.540
10	Kurt	Warner	108	168	1377	6	5	87.9	0.523
11	Marc	Bulger	370	588	4301	24	8	303.1	0.515
12	Tim	Rattay	61	101	748	4	2	51.4	0.509
13	Seneca	Wallace	82	141	927	8	7	71.4	0.506
14	Tom	Brady	319	516	3529	24	12	260.5	0.505
15	J.P.	Losman	268	429	3051	19	14	214.6	0.500
16	Michael	Vick	204	388	2474	20	13	190.7	0.491
17	David	Garrard	145	241	1735	10	9	117.8	0.489
18	Matt	Hasselbeck	210	371	2442	18	15	179.1	0.483
19	Rex	Grossman	262	480	3193	23	20	231.7	0.483
20	Ben	Roethlisberger	280	469	3513	18	23	224.7	0.479
21	Jason	Campbell	110	207	1297	10	6	98.9	0.478
22	Drew	Bledsoe	90	169	1164	7	8	78.2	0.463
23	Eli	Manning	301	522	3244	24	18	240.2	0.460
24	Jake	Delhomme	263	431	2805	17	11	197.3	0.458
25	Jon	Kitna	372	596	4208	21	22	272.4	0.457
26	Chad	Pennington	313	485	3352	17	16	219.6	0.453
27	Mark	Brunell	162	260	1789	8	4	117.5	0.452
28	Byron	Leftwich	108	183	1159	7	5	81.0	0.442
29	Derek	Anderson	66	117	793	5	8	51.7	0.441
30	Steve	McNair	295	468	3050	16	12	204.5	0.437
31	Alex	Smith	257	442	2890	16	16	192.5	0.436
32	Trent	Green	121	198	1342	7	9	86.1	0.435
33	Matt	Leinart	214	377	2547	11	12	159.4	0.423
34	Jake	Plummer	175	317	1994	11	13	130.7	0.412
35	Vince	Young	184	357	2199	12	13	145.0	0.406
36	Brett	Favre	343	613	3885	18	18	248.3	0.405
37	David	Carr	302	442	2767	11	12	170.4	0.385
38	Daunte	Culpepper	81	134	929	2	3	51.5	0.384
39	Joey	Harrington	223	388	2236	12	15	144.8	0.373
40	Charlie	Frye	252	392	2454	10	17	145.7	0.372
41	Brad	Johnson	270	439	2750	9	15	158.5	0.361
42	Bruce	Gradkowski	177	328	1661	9	9	110.1	0.336
43	Aaron	Brooks	110	192	1105	3	8	59.3	0.309
44	Andrew	Walter	147	276	1677	3	13	82.9	0.300
45	Chris	Simms	58	106	585	1	7	26.3	0.248

I'm as surprised by Leinart's pedestrian ranking as you are, and it made me rethink my optimism for him a bit. With fewer attempts per game virtually assured, it seems improbable that Leinart has the potential to surprise on the upside and deliver a top-10 season. He's probably stuck in that second tier (QB12-QB18) by virtue of opportunity.

Now, there is always the possibility that Leinart will markedly improve on his fantasy points per passing attempt. His 0.42 points per attempt was low, but it was within shouting distance of the league norm. When you consider he was a rookie last year and didn't get the benefit of training camp as the QB1, it seems logical he will be a more productive and efficient passer in 2007. Also, Ken Whisenhunt has been a master at efficient quarterback production:

2006 -- Steelers QBs averaged 0.519 fantasy points per attempt
2005 -- Steelers QBs averaged 0.594 fantasy points per attempt
2004 -- Steelers QBs averaged 0.569 fantasy points per attempt

When you consider that Big Ben Roethlisberger was a young inexperienced QB and put up these kinds of numbers, it's encouraging to think that Leinart might also be in line for a similar improvement.

Positives

Leinart was a highly productive starter for USC, and has elite mechanics, poise and confidence
Ken Whisenhunt brings a commitment to offensive balance, improved line play and has always created highly efficient QB play (fewer attempts, but more with each attempt)
The Cardinals have an enviable trio of wide receivers, as well as a solid receiving duo in the backfield, and added two new tackles (Levi Brown and Wayne Gandy) and a center (Al Johnson) to stablize the line

Negatives

Leinart was below average (33rd out of 45) in fantasy points per pass attempt, and if anything the Cardinals are going to throw LESS this year
While the coaching staff has grand designs, and the personnel has improved, there's no guarantee that the Cardinals line play will improve significantly
Leinart has been labeled "Hollywood" for his propensity to hang with the celeb crowd, if that's indicative of a lack of focus, it could lead to disappointing production

Final Thoughts

On one hand, the Cardinals seem ready made to produce huge passing numbers. On the other hand, Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm want the team to run early and often (to the tune of 550 carries). The reality lies somewhere in between, but you can be sure that Leinart won't throw as much as he did a year ago. Further complicating matters is Leinart's poor fantasy output per pass attempt a year ago, contrasted against Ken Whisenhunt's track record of producing highly efficient passing attacks. At the end of the day, Matt Leinart showed enough as a rookie to think he's capable of much more. As long as the offensive line gels and Leinart can have time to throw, he seems like an excellent bet to deliver solid QB2 numbers; with upside if he can replicate the fantasy points per attempt that Big Ben has done in Pittsburgh.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Spartans Rule:
While I certainly expect Leinart to be more efficient this season - he completed 56% of his passes last year, but over 60% with Fitzgerald in the lineup - I don't think see you're going to see the same kind of passing volume.

Whisenhunt definitely brings in a more run-oriented offense. Arizona was 7th in pass attempts last season. Pittsburgh was 15th in pass attempts, in a year when they were behind more often than usual and lacked a great power back. Most years they ran the ball an absurd percentage of the time. While I don't expect the Cardinals to pull an 04-05 Steelers and run 600 times, I think the 06 Steelers represent a somewhat similar situation.

Chase Stuart -- FBG Staff:
Leinart put up QB12-15 numbers when he played last year, when adjusting for strength of schedule and games played. I've got his numbers as slightly below Warner's raw numbers, but Warner played an easier schedule (more than enough to compensate for that small difference). So considering Leinart was probably a little better than Warner last year, and the Arizona TM QB ranked 14th among all TM QBs, I'd have little reason to worry about Leinart this year based on what you saw last season. The change in coaching staff may cause some concern, however. Or it may not.

redman:
The change in coaching and offensive philosophy always bothers me, and the fact that Leinart and his offensive teammates are relatively young doesn't help things.

I'm wondering whether a look at the 2004 Steelers stats with Big Ben as a rookie might be somewhat instructive. Yes, that Steelers team was a LOT better running team than the Cards, but I think Whisenhunt and Grimm use this year to try to instill a new attitude on that team and especially on offense. What that means to me is that they will run the ball at every opportunity.

Matt Leinart Projections

SOURCE	PYD	PTD	INT	RSHYD	RSHTD
Jason Wood	3550	22	16	70	1
Message Board Consensus	3570	22	15	87	2