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Spotlight - QB Jon Kitna, Detroit Lions

Posted on 6/17, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Mark Wimer's Thoughts

Jon Kitna is on a roll. During 2006, his first in Mike Martz' high octane passing offense, Kitna hit career highs in passing attempts (596), completions (372), passing yards (4208), rushing yards (156) and interceptions (22). He threw 21 TDs and rushed for two more, landing him at #6 among all fantasy QBs last season. But wait, there's more: despite their disappointing record with first-round WR choices, the Lions swallowed their pride and made Calvin Johnson, arguably the best WR prospect to be drafted in the last decade, a member of their team. He'll join established fantasy star Roy Williams (#10 in FP last year at his position) and one of last year's surprise fantasy studs, Mike Furrey (#19 last year), to form a very respectable trio of receiving threats for the Lions.

In addition, Kitna will benefit from simply entering his second year in the Martz offense. He's now well-versed in the attack, and feels much more comfortable entering 2007 than he did last year. Kitna certainly believes that the Lions will benefit from both the year of experience and the personnel moves made during the off-season (both the additions via the draft and free agency and the subtractions of players like the sluggish Mike Williams). He stated on May 23^rd "You're looking at certain games that would have been different had we known a little more about each other and known more about the system. There were a number of games where confusion cost us. The way the team got better in terms of who's coming and who's going this offseason, I'd say anything less than 10 wins would be a disappointment."

In fact, it's hard to find much not to like about Kitna's situation entering 2007. Kitna will be entering his 11^th season as a pro, but thanks to 2 years of bench time backing up Carson Palmer in Cincinnati prio to coming to Detroit, he's got plenty of gas left in his tank. He's now comfortably installed in a highly productive offense, with an outstanding nucleus of talent around him (even presumptive starting RB Tatum Bell, arrived from Denver during the off-season, is a decent pass catcher, snagging 24 receptions last year while splitting time with Mike Bell in Denver. The Lions' defense isn't among the league's elite, which should ensure plenty of high-scoring affairs during the coming year.

The bottom line here is that Kitna is poised to be a highly productive fantasy QB again during 2007.

Positives

• Kitna is playing in one of the most pass-happy offenses ever fielded in the NFL
• Kitna has become comfortable in the offense and enters 2007 primed to excel
• The Lions added an outstanding target to the Lion's WR stable when they drafted Calvin Johnson

Negatives

• Calvin Johnson is a rookie WR, which is a position that has a very steep learning curve. The list of "can't miss" rookie WRs who busted in the NFL is legion
• Kitna threw more interceptions than TDs last year and seemed to get lost during some games last year, tossing some very bad passes that became easy interceptions
• The Lions' RB stable is very banged up, with Kevin Jones, Shawn Bryson and Brian Calhoun all probable to start the season on the PUP list. There won't be much depth behind Tatum Bell and T.J. Duckett, and both of those guys are new to the system. If the running game falters, defensive coordinators/teams could shift more attention to stopping the Lions' passing game

Final Thoughts

Jon Kitna should easily land among the top 10 fantasy QBs in the land this season, and has a solid shot at being in the top 5 by year's end -- but he won't cost you the high draft pick that Peyton Manning will command. I'm planning on targeting Kitna in a lot of my redraft leagues this year.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Chase Stuart, FBG Staff:
In general, there are two types of QBs that are overrated:

1) QBs on teams that throw a lot of passes
2) QBs that take close to 100% of their team's passes

Why is that? If you don't miss games due to injury, and your team throws the ball a lot, you're pretty much guaranteed to pass for a ton of yards. Well, unless you're John Kitna, 2001.

Jon Kitna was the 6th best fantasy QB last year. That's misleading, because he played every game. Going by team QBs, Detroit TM QB ranked 8th overall. Dallas and Philadelphia both scored more FPs than Detroit QBs last year.

In terms of fantasy points derived from the passing game, Det QBs ranked 7th (moving ahead of Atlanta, obviously). But Detroit QBs ranked 21st (behind Atlanta, as well) in passing fantasy points per pass attempt.

Now you might say, who cares where a team ranks in passing fantasy points per pass attempt. And there's some merit to that. But team passing attempts doesn't correlate very well from year to year. And that's important to know. So seeing a 6 next to Jon Kitna's name last year is probably less useful than seeing a 21 next to his name. (And before someone asks: Indy, Phi, NO, Cin -- the teams at the top of the TM QB FP list, were also at the very top of the passing fantasy points per attempt list. So I don't think a successful argument in defense of Detroit's low PFP/att rank is that Detroit had lots of attempts.)

At this point, you can feel free to upgrade Kitna because you think:

1) the 2007 Lions will pass the ball more -- and maybe a lot more -- often than the league average team.
2) the 2007 Lions have a better supporting cast than the 2006 version, mostly thanks to Calvin Johnson.
3) any Kitna related reason to move him up (I think Kitna will do a better job QBing this year than last, where he threw more INTs than TDs).
4) any other reason related to the 2007 Lions.

WhoDat:
The Lions did very little to address their defensive problems. Yes, they drafted some players that should or could pan out over the next 2 seasons but the team did not leave this year's draft with a player or players that could make an immediate impact, opinion. For an example, see E. Sims last year. The Lions, as usual, will be playing from behind early and often.

This is the second year in Martz's offense with upgrades at WR positions and the offensive line. (You could argue the moves made to address OL but that is another conversation.) The team also added Bell & Duckett as insurance for K. Jones. There will be at least 8 games, if not more, were the Lions are going to struggle to run the football. Apologies to Bell & Duckett, but I have seen that movie a few times and it is not that good. However...

The Lions did get the perceived QB of the future, D. Stanton. What does this all mean?

There are going to be a TON of passing yards to be had in this offense but I think you reduce Kitna's total numbers by 25% or 4 games. If the Lions are completely out of the running by late October or early November...please save all jokes...there is no reason to think Stanton will not start getting snaps. Working Stanton in over the last month of the season makes sense if the Lions are playing for another Top 10 pick. At that point there is no need for him to play caddy to Kitna. The kid will get some field work in December.

Biabreakable:
Kitna is a tough player. I believe he will play all year regardless of the Lions record. Stanton is no Carson Palmer and even Palmer had to sit his whole 1st season while Kitna played very well, with another Bengals team that had budding offensive stars but poor personel throughout the rest of the team. But with a defensive minded coach. It all seems very similar in many ways.

Jon Kitna Projections