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Spotlight - RB Thomas Jones, New York Jets

Posted on 6/17, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Mark Wimer's Thoughts

Thomas Jones made the best of tense situation in Chicago over the last two years, keeping highly-touted Cedric Benson (drafted to be the Bears' franchise RB) in the second-fiddle position. He did so through a combination of veteran leadership, a strong work ethic, and outstanding production on the field. Entering 2007, Jones has relocated to the New York Jets, bringing along his valuable NFL experience, strong work ethic and (hopefully) production. In this spotlight I'll explore his potential given his new digs with the Jets, and explain why I think he should land well within the top 20 among fantasy RBs this year (our panel of experts put him just on the cusp of the top 20, in aggregate).

The first reason I believe that Jones should do very well with the Jets is that he is the clear cut, #1 back in this stable. With 2 seasons of 1200+ rushing yards in his past 2 years (314/1335/9 rushing and 26/143/0 receiving during 2005, 296/1210/6 rushing and 36/154/0 last year), he's proven that he's entering the prime of his career, after starting out with 4 frustrating years in Arizona and Tampa Bay. Leon Washington and Cedric Houston showed flashes of talent in the mix-and-match running-back-by-committee that the Jets employed last year, but neither guy is likely to challenge Jones for the every-down role. Washington and Houston will duke it out to be the backup/change of pace back -- nothing more. 

The second reason I believe that Jones should do very well with the Jets is that the team as a whole is on the rise. They were a surprising 10-6 in the tough AFC East last year and made it to a wild-card playoff game (something that practically no one except their most die-hard fans ever believed they would do last year). With Chad Pennington in top form, and a solid WR corps headed by Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery - and a reliable TE in Chris Baker - the passing game is respectable enough that teams won't be able to stack the line without getting burned. Also, the Jets would like to employ a Chicago style, run-first-and-play-tough-D game plan which should enhance the number of opportunities that Jones sees this year (especially compared to last year while he was fending off Cedric Benson).

The third reason I believe that Jones is poised to excel this season is that he is finally in a place where he knows he's "the man" and this is helping to motivate Jones and fueling his good attitude. There are no nagging injuries dogging him entering 2007. According to all accounts, he is working extremely hard since arriving in New York, and seems to me like a man on a mission. Head coach Eric Mangini commented on May 31st "Every time I go down to the weight room, he's there, you can tell there's real progress in terms of his muscle mass. His work ethic on the field has been equally impressive." Jones is responding to the trust that the Jets have shown in signing him by working hard on and off the field -- much preferable to the attitude we see from LenDale White, for example. Jones is putting in the time and effort that is the foundation for excellence in the NFL.

To summarize, Thomas Jones has the talent and the opportunity to display his talent; he is playing for the right team at the right time; he's healthy; and he's displaying the work ethic/attitude required to maximize the previous conditions.

Positives

• Jones has relatively low mileage on his tires, yet is a savvy NFL veteran entering the prime of his career
• Jones has the work ethic and attitude that is required to maximize his talent
• Jones is the uncontested featured running back on this squad

Negatives

• Jones has to learn a new offensive system, and could come out of the gates slowly if he has trouble integrating with his new team-mates (especially the OL)
• The AFC East is a tough division and there won't be many "gimmes" on the schedule as the Jets were in the playoffs last year
• Leon Washington is a good receiver out of the backfield and could cut into the number of receptions Jones snags this year (important for point-per-reception leagues)

Final Thoughts

Thomas Jones should be able to post 1,200 yards rushing in New York without any problems, and he has considerable upside beyond that level (if everything works well for the Jets' offense during 2007). I really like him as a #2 RB this year -- you may very well end up with top 12 production, but will only have to pay for those statistics with a pick around the end of the 2nd/beginning of the 3rd round in a standard 12 team redraft league.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

shadyridr:
I love the Jets oline, I love their offensive philosophy, I love have their is no one to steal carries from Jones, I love how he is the goalline back. IMO he is an unquestioned RB1. The only think I dont love is that he will most likely be taken out on 3rd downs for Washington so his receptions wont be too high. But I can see him getting about 20 carries a game.

KING:
For some reason, I really don't like Jones this year. I just have the feeling it's going to be a rough year for him. I think the Jets will spread the carries around a bit, with Washington seeing his share. I don't see Jones being motivated by the Bears moving him. given the jets are his 4th team, he's probably getting use to it. In fact, I see the opposite. which Jones will show up? the one with the Bears, or the one of 4 years ago with the cards. I'll put him somewhere in the middle.

pizzatyme:
I've got a hunch that Jones goes off this season. I think he will try to prove what a mistake the Bears made in letting him go.

Thomas Jones Projections