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Spotlight - RB Rudi Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals

Posted on 6/24, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Mike Brown's Thoughts

Few performers in fantasy football have been as reliable in recent years than Rudi Johnson. Typically, even the best fantasy options vary wildly from year to year. As great as LaDainian Tomlinson is, his numbers haven't been as consistent as Johnson's over a similar timeframe. Of course, that's because Tomlinson just had probably the greatest season ever and none of his owners will complain about it. But still, it goes to show you that sometimes even the best players cannot simply be penciled in for X number of yards or a specific touchdown total year after year.

But Johnson can. And that's not to say Johnson is a better option than Tomlinson; just more consistent. That could be seen as a negative in that Johnson won't ever singlehandedly win you your league title. Or it could be seen as a positive in that if you really like consistency, it's not likely that anyone is going to jump out of their shoes to grab him several spots too early (meaning you can conceivably get him in nearly any spot of the first round, depending on the size of your league).

It's quite telling that in our official expert projections for Johnson, each of our five experts have him totaling roughly the same number of fantasy points. Everyone's analysis and predictions have him finishing somewhere between 208 and 220 points. That's remarkable uniformity for any player, let alone a running back (a typically volatile position to project).

This season, not much is expected to change for Johnson. If recent history is any indication, he'll make a worthy first round selection once again. He has finished the last three seasons ranked 8, 7, and 9 amongst running backs. He has scored exactly twelve rushing touchdowns in each of those seasons, as well. He had had 337 and 341 carries the past two seasons, as well as 23 receptions on 31 targets in each of the past two years. While it's true that his rushing totals took a bit of a dip last year, he caught passes for 34 more yards to help make up for it.

Basically, they just don't make them any more consistent than Johnson. But, enough about how consistent he has been so far; the question is, will he maintain that consistency in 2007?

Positives

• Consistency. Okay, sorry to bring that up again but it cannot be stressed enough. It's amazing what it does for a fantasy team to almost know that your RB1 is a lock for top-10 status. Last year in my main league, I missed out on Rudi Johnson at ninth overall and settled for Cadillac Williams at ten. You think I would've maybe traded Cadillac's upside for a little more consistency? Maybe?!?
• The offense around Johnson hasn't lost a beat. Yes, Chris Henry is going to be out of the equation but it's not as if he made the offense go. Carson Palmer is another year removed from injury, and Chad Johnson is still faster than a horse. Not to mention T.J. Houshmandzadeh's breakout 2006 and the excellent options everywhere on the team. Ironically, all of the talent around Johnson doesn't detract from his value because the offense is so good at moving the ball that everyone gets theirs and then some.
• Johnson has remained very healthy and durable during his Cincinnati career, and has played in every game the past three seasons. Knowing you can pencil your back in for 16 games often is just as important as the stats he'll put up for you.

Negatives

• Johnson doesn't catch the ball much. This is primarily what keeps him just out of the elite tier of backs. He has recorded just 88 receptions in 68 career games. For comparison, Reggie Bush had 88 receptions last season alone.
• Johnson isn't much of a home-run threat and does most of his scoring near the goal line. While that's not necessarily a bad thing, it does mean that he needs to rely on his team to move the ball in order to get his scores. With the Bengals, that's not usually an issue anyway, but it warrants mentioning.
• His yards per carry average dipped below 4.0 for the first time last season (3.8 YPC on 341 rushes). It could be simply an anomaly, or it could be the beginning of a decline. He's third amongst active players in number of touches over the past three years. Unlike the two players ahead of him (LaDainian Tomlinson and Edgerrin James), the vast majority of Johnson's touches have come while taking a pounding on runs right up the middle.

Final Thoughts

I hate to keep harping on it, but there is one huge reason that I'll have Rudi Johnson in as many leagues as possible every single year. The odds are seven out of twelve that you won't land a top-5 pick, meaning you're going to get shut out of guys like Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, and Larry Johnson anyway (i.e., the guys with consistency AND upside). Getting a back like Rudi Johnson is a spectacular consolation prize, and most owners pass him over in the middle of the first round in favor of the hot shot player who is just going to go ape poop and win the league all on his own. Meanwhile, people like you and I sit there safe in the knowledge that we needn't go boom or bust with our very first pick of the draft, because as FBG we know that there are plenty of those guys to be had later on. The first round is no place to run out and trip over a land mine; it's the place to find a top option who you can pencil in (or in Johnson's case, ink in) a certain point range and expect him to hit it with almost 100% reliability. Obviously, freak injuries can hit any player at any point but few players right now are in better positions to excel reliably than is Johnson.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Cookiemonster:
My only thought is that the Bengals HAVE been trying to reduce the # of touches for a couple of years, but Perry hasn't stayed healthy. Now, what if...

Say Perry DOES stay healthy. You have him stealing many 3rd downs. Irons is worth finding out about, and was a 2nd rounder. He was also in my opinion, one of the pound-for-pound toughest RBs in college two years ago and what he did last year (playing through injury) doesn't change my opinion. I expect Cincy to at least find out what they got, saving Rudi some clean-up, garbage time wear-n-tear.

Rudi is the type of RB we all want as a #2 or 1B, but I expect about !0-15% dropoff in touches this year and more going forward in order to prolong his career concidering the amount of carries as a battering ram he's had in his career. If not, he'll fall off the map a la Eddie George. #2 or 1B RB redraft (top 12 pick) and quite lower in dynasty.

Jene Bremel, FBG Staff
The offensive line could go either way.

The optimistic feeling would be that Willie Anderson and Levi Jones leave camp healthier than they were last season when Jones struggled through knee issues and Anderson played on an injured foot, that Eric Ghaiciuc continues to improve at center and that Andrew Whitworth doesn't miss a beat with Eric Steinbach lost in free agency.

The pessimistic feeling would be that both tackles are getting older and have suffered through consecutive seasons of lower leg injuries, Ghiaciuc never measures up to his potential and Whitworth regresses in his second season while the depth isn't as strong with Ghiaciuc and Whitworth now in full time roles.

It'll be somewhere in between in all likelihood. But this line, if it doesn't go through a musical chairs period as it did at times last year, measures up as one of the best run blocking lines in the league. They should be fine.

Thom Yorke:
Wood, do we really even need a spotlight here? For the love of God, we KNOW what Rudi's going to do this season! For the past three years, Rudi has had between 337-361 carries, and compiled 1309-1458 yards rushing. Did I mention that he's had 12 rushing touchdowns...ALL THREE YEARS? And check out the WIDE ranging finishes for this guy fantasy wise over the last three seasons:

2004: RB8
2005: RB7
2006: RB9

And for good measure, Rudi makes sure that he has no real role in the passing game every season, ensuring that he will never crack the top 5!! FEEEEEEEEEEEL THE EXCITEMENT!!

Changes in 2007 The Bengals did draft Kenny Irons in the second round of the draft this season. However, this likely isn't a reflection of dissatisfaction with Rudi, but instead, suggests the Bengals have run out of patience with the incredibly fragile Chris Perry. It's hard to imagine Irons having a big role this year.

Outlook/Projection: In all seriousness, there appears to be very little reason to expect much of a increase or dropoff from Rudi this year. The only slight cause for concern I can identify is his 2006 YPC of 3.8, which was a career low. The decision to draft Irons, who is more of a speed/shifty guy, could mean the team wants to give opponents a different look over the compact and powerful Rudi. Even so, I simply cannot envision a scenario where Rudi winds up with less than 320 carries. Once again, Johnson will be a safe, conservative pick for those looking to minimize their risk in the first round of their fantasy draft.

nshelat1:
Good to see that people seem relatively stable about this guy despite losing Steinbach. Here are some points I wanted to share.

1.) The loss of LG Steinbach will not hurt all that much. While he was a stud in his own right, Rudi simply never found much fantasy success running left as opposed to right. While carries were roughly similar to either side, Rudy gained more yards running to the right side and showed a penchant for running behind RT Willie Anderson in red-zone situations- so much so that the difference, over the last three years, was 22 TD (right) - 8 TD (left). Pretty hefty margin to say the least and hence, the departure wont affect his fantasy production significantly. His replacement Whitworth is a gritty, hard-nosed player who was initially knocked for his strength but emerged as a mauler last season. Watching him a lot at LSU, i know this kid can play.

2.) He's at his best on third downs/2nd half. The guy is a warrior that plays with the same intensity on every down. Take a look at his splits. First and second half splits are nearly identical over the past three years, despite the grind that games take on players. As if that wasn't enough, his best splits exist in the 4th quarter- when the game is on the line and a time where he must be feeling the most tired. Proof enough that he is a very disciplined runner. Also, as someone mentioned, his 3rd down splits are very impressive and a good indication of his desire to help the team win. Last season, he averaged a 1st down in half of his 3rd down carries. thumbup1.gif Also, for those who may feel that his 3rd down stats are inflated, his splits for 3rd and <6 and 3rd and 6+ are very similar (4.0 and 4.5 YPC respectively) over the last 3 years. As assumed before, consistency is the name of his game. What all this boils down to is the fact that Irons wont be needed to step immediately into the offense and contribute. This is a boon to Rudi's fantasy value by leaving his situation relatively unchanged.

3.) Loss of Kelly Washington/Chris Henry (8 games) now leaves Cincinnati with a lack of proven 3rd down options and may necessitate his increased role as a receiver out of the backfield on short yardage pass plays. The tandem of CJ and TJ is well documented and no doubt defenses will be making concerned efforts to shut down the passing game and make the Bengals beat them on the ground. Hence, Rudi will likely called on to make plays either as a runner or receiver in order to take advantage of the fact and due to the fact that the Bengals lack a viable TE threat or a proven #3WR (either McNeal, Green or Chatman) it seems Johnson will be looked at primarily to address these situations. I see an up tick in his receiving totals and perhaps also his Yards per Catch.

4.) Relative Strength of Division Teams is weaker this year than last. While this is a matter of viewpoint, IMO the Steelers and Ravens were relative losers in the offseason/draft and fare worse than this point last season. If the Bengals jump out to early leads, expect Johnson to handle the rock and put up some good numbers in the process.

Rudi Johnson Projections