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Spotlight - WR Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers

Posted on 7/20, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Mike Brown's Thoughts

The second rounder out of Western Michigan made a big splash onto the NFL scene in his rookie season with the Packers. After passing the veteran Robert Ferguson on the depth chart late in training camp to win a starting role, he excelled on the field in the season's first five games to the tune of 20 receptions for 364 yards and three touchdowns. Obviously it's a small sample size, but those numbers work out close to 1,000 yards and ten touchdowns over a full season. One cannot simply assume he would have kept producing at those numbers, of course, but it does go to show that he was able to make a quick impact on the league early on in his very first season (a la Anquan Boldin and Marques Colston).

The dreaded high ankle sprain he suffered in Week 7 would ultimately doom his first year. After that initial quick start, Jennings would go on to catch just 25 more balls for 268 yards and zero touchdowns over his final nine games. The injury clearly bothered him even when he was able to get on the field, evidenced by his yards per reception dropping from 18.2 over the first five games to just 10.72 over the final nine.

Which Jennings will show up this year? Will it be the one who took the league by storm, prompting some early rookie of the year hype? The guy who made others wonder if he had already, at age 23, taken over the reins as the top receiver on the Packers? Or the one who struggled through the rest of the season hobbled? The one who lost focus in a Week 16 contest so badly that Brett Favre was overheard on the sideline saying that Jennings wasn't finishing plays?

Positives

• Jennings' talent level is unquestioned. He's got all the talent and skills to excel not only this year, but also long-term. While he may or may not fill that potential right away, at some point he'll likely become a top-10 wideout
• Jennings is something of an unknown commodity outside of the more astute fantasy owners. Depending on the quality of your league, he might be overlooked as nothing more than a "nice" player to take a flier on
• The Packers threw the ball more than any other team last season. In fact, no team was within thirty pass attempts. While that number likely will decrease, they'll still remain amongst the most prolific passing offenses

Negatives

• Obviously, the big concern with Jennings would be injury, or at least the risk thereof. He hasn't been in the league long enough or been hurt enough times to call it a trend, but it's obviously not good news that an ankle sprain bothered him for the better part of three months
• Jennings is a bit short for a number one-type of player. Granted, not every wideout in the league needs to be 6'5", but at 5'11" Jennings isn't going to out-leap anyone on the basis of his height
• Regardless of his opportunity or health, Jennings' short-term value may be limited by Donald Driver. As long as Driver is in Green Bay, he'll receive the lion's share of the receptions in all likelihood

Final Thoughts

You won't find many players with more upside in the ninth round of your fantasy drafts this year kids. With Brett Favre back for one more go-round, Jennings is still on a pass-happy team with a rifle-armed Hall of Fame quarterback. Oh, and Donald Driver lines up across the field from him. While that will ultimately hold Jennings' pass targets down a bit, it also will serve to ensure that any double-teams they face will not be on the Jennings side of the field.

Assuming he can stay relatively healthy (yes, that might be a big if) then there is no reason to expect Jennings to regress any in 2007. Let's assume for a moment that he didn't fade down the stretch last season. If you saw a former second round rookie wideout coming off a season of 45-632-3 playing with Brett Favre, you'd be downright giddy about his prospects for the upcoming season. Don't undervalue him and disregard him simply because he did the bulk of his damage early and then faded late.

I plan on having Jennings on as many of my teams as possible in redraft leagues, because his value is great as a mid-round pick with a TON of upside. Donald Driver isn't going away anytime soon, but at age 32 and coming off the season he just did, it's probably fair to say that he has peaked. Jennings is very low risk at this point, and certainly one of the league's better number two options talent-wise and opportunity-wise.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Sigmund Bloom, FBG Staff:
It is troubling that Jennings never quite shook his ankle injury, but before that he was on his way to prodigious rookie season numbers. For a rookie to be that settled in the offense and that trusted by a veteran QB after only four months with the team is astounding. He's got the highest ceiling as any of the young WRs that we expect to take a step forward this year (I would include Holmes, Hackett, Marshall, Jackson, and Brown in that group).

smackdaddies:
Jennings has the potential to be a big play guy for the Packers. Farve can still throw the ball deep, and Jennings is the only WR on the team with truly great speed. Holding him back could be several key issues. These include:

1. What is up with the Packers running game? Sure, bad running game can mean more passing, but I always have believed they go together. If all the defense has to do is line up to stop Driver/Jennings/and some random TE, thats not that hard to do.

2. Can the Packers O line keep it together? With year 2 of the zone blocking scheme, the O line started to put things together in the second half of last season - if they keep going forward (remember, it is a very young O line), that is all good. The Packers are confident enough in it that they cut Barry, who they had given a good bonus to recently, but was too big/slow for the zone blocking package.

3. Was it the injury, or was it teams just paying attention to him that slowed him down last year. Yes, the injury was part of it. But I am not so sure that teams just figured out how to defend him a little bit better also.

I am a big Jennings fan - drafted him last year in all my leagues (always got him in one of the last two rounds) - he will certainly be drafted ahead of that position this year. I believe he will be more of a TD guy then a reception guy - most of the receptions will go to Driver and the RB. I like him better in non PPR leagues than PPR leagues.

rzrback77:
Greg Jennings started out his rookie campaign quicker and just as strong as Colston. But, at game 5 he had an ankle injury and was never the same. In three of the first five games, he had double digit fantasy points going over a hundred yards twice and scoring TDs in three games. After the injury, he caught over three passes three times, once had over fifty yards and never scored another TD. Was it only the injury or did he hit the rookie wall.

Green Bay had very few options at WR last year and he was not productive after game five. This year, he will have competition in camp and they are not afraid to start a rookie. A difficult projection for me. If it was the injury and he bounces back, he could have a very high ceiling with Favre chucking the rock. But, concerns abound about the injury, the new receivers, and even Favre.

I'll choose the negative approach and be contrarian to the masses projecting a solid sophomore campaign.

Greg Jennings Projections