All Spotlights • Brandon Jacobs Player Page • NYG Projections • RB Projections • RB Rankings • NYG Team Report

Spotlight - RB Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants

Posted on 7/30, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Brandon Jacobs is a divisive player this year. Take a quick glance in our Shark Pool and you'll see the opinions on Jacobs range from outright bust to fantasy stud. In my view, the truth lies somewhere in between.

First, let's take a look at the things we know with absolute certainty:

• Jacobs is an excellent short-yardage back -- Jacobs converted 47% of his goal-line carries for touchdowns over the last two seasons, among the 10 best in the league. His big frame and powerful leg push are well suited to push through the pile and there's no reason to think he won't continue to flourish in that role, particularly now that he won't have to share carries with the all-world Tiki Barber.
• Jacobs won't be asked to replace Tiki Barber -- Contrary to what some delusional Giants fans may believe, Tiki Barber isn't replaceable, at least not by Brandon Jacobs or any one player for that matter. The coaches have said repeatedly that it's going to take contributions from two or three runners to approximate Barber's all-purpose yards.
• Reuben Droughns will play -- Reuben Droughns has a pair of 1,200-yard seasons under his belt; and although the Giants didn't pay a lot for him, they certainly won't let him rot on the bench either. Expect Jacobs to get a majority of the carries, but don't expect Droughns to see fewer than 8-10 touches per game.

Now, let's talk about what we don't know:

• Can he handle a full-time role? -- Jacobs notched 96 carries last year, which was a three-fold increase from his rookie season. When you consider that he wasn't a full-time back in college either, Jacobs has not proven he can be a workhorse regardless of what the coaching staff and GM might want.
• Will the offensive line open up holes? -- The Giants offensive line struggled last year, and yet they let Luke Petitgout, their best tackle when healthy, leave for Tampa Bay. The plan is to move LG David Diehl outside, which hardly instills confidence that New York will field an above average line this year. Barber had the vision, patience and explosiveness to make plays out of nothing, but does Jacobs have the same capability.

Brandon Jacobs is without peer at the position, being built more like a rookie defensive end than a tailback. As long as the Giants can remain competitive on defense, you can count on a heavy workload for Jacobs which, given his strength and short yardage prowess, should lead to solid rushing totals and quite possibly excellent (think 10+) rushing touchdowns.

But expecting solid fantasy production is a far cry from expecting fantasy greatness. A QB working on his mechanics, a lame duck coaching staff, a new GM, a rebuilding offensive line and a questionable defense are not (when combined) a recipe for fantasy greatness.

Positives

• At 6'4", 260 pounds, Brandon Jacobs is built more like a defensive end than a running back. He has the size and leg drive to gain yards after contact; something the Giants will need him to do given the state of their offensive line
• Jacobs ran for 9 rushing TDs last year and has 16 in 134 career carries. Even if Jacobs doesn't get a ton of rushing yards, he should push for double digit TDs over a 16-game season
• The Giants coaches are saying all the right things, including the obligatory "20- to 25-carries) declaration

Negatives

• Jacobs has carried the ball less times in his career than Larry Johnson does in a month. Can BJ get to the heart of the matter?
• The Giants are turmoil on multiple fronts
• The offensive line is a huge question mark, particularly if David Diehl isn't equipped to move outside

Final Thoughts

Brandon Jacobs is being drafted outside of the 20 best fantasy runners. While I can envision a scenario where he falls short of the top 20; I don't see it as likely. For all of the questions, we know Jacobs will be given every chance to win a big role and, in the process, offers fantasy value at his current ADP. Draft accordingly.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

H.K.:
Reasons Jacobs will be a bust for anyone drafting him in FF this season, and these apply for any scoring format:

1) He has never been a feature RB - There is a reason for this, do not overlook the obvious here!. Being third string at Auburn and splitting time at SIU were root cause issues, not situational. There will be pages of BS from his supporters explaining why he never had a chance or citing examples of other guys who weren't successful in college that bloomed in the NFL. Don't listen to that, those guys weren't 6'4" 265 lb sitting targets. Jacobs is a modern day battleship....impressive to look at, yet very limited in application.

2) Follow the money - Droughns gets paid more than he does. If the Giants really thought Jacobs were the man, they would not have traded for a feature RB like Droughns (one of only 10 RB's in the NFL to rush for 1200 yards twice since 2004). The Giants could have added some traditional back-up through FA and paid less for him, but chose to go with a proven three down RB. Not to mention they added Bradshaw through the draft, too.

3) No Tiki will actually hurt him - Barber was the guy who got Jacobs scoring chances. Without him, Jacobs will have fewer TD's this year than last season even though he'll get more touches. The entire Giants offense will suffer greatly without Barber.

David Yudkin, FBG Staff:
Things to ponder over while sipping your morning coffee . . .

- Droughns took a 50% pay cut when he reworked his deal after coming to the Giants. He can get most of that money back through incentive clauses, but he would have seen the money automatically if he didn't redo his deal.

- I have been following this situation closely and have seen several articles on the Droughns/Jacobs situation where beat writers, reporters, teammates, and coaches clearly favor Jacobs as their guy and I have not seen anywhere where this is an open competition. Only Droughns (and his agent) seem to have mentioned splitting the carries.

- I started a poll on this very subject several weeks ago. LINK

- What happens when teams lose a Top 10 RB? Their rushing totals suffer on average a drop of 12% in rushing yardage and 23% in rushing TD.

IMO, Jacobs will start the year far more the primary ball carrier and will continue to get the goal line carries. How well he does will determine how much work Droughns will get. If I were to guess a breakdown of carries, I would take a stab at this point of 60-65% Jacobs and 35-40% Droughns.

rzrback77:
There are two many blanks to fill in for Brandon Jacobs to be a successful fantasy running back in 2007. He was unable to be priductive at his first college team and transferred to non-football power Southern Illinois. He was drafted in the fourth round three years ago. He has performed adequately as a Tiki Barber break provider and improved in his short yardage role, but has not had any game in the past two years where he saw more than eleven carries and only three with over 10 carries. Only 14 targets in two years, in an offense that regularly uses the RB as a safety valve.

He also has an effective RB that has been acquired to at a minimum join him in a RBBC role with the Giants. Just too many leaps for me to be a solid backer of Brandon Jacobs heading into 2007. I see the Giants moving their offense further into the passing game and both Droughns and Jacobs being used in a full-fledged RBBC.

Brandon Jacobs Projections