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Spotlight - WR Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers

Posted on 7/10, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Vincent Jackson is on many people's short lists this year as a potential breakout fantasy star. In some ways, that enthusiasm seems well placed:

1. He's a lock to start for the Chargers and doesn't have to contend with veteran Keenan McCardell stealing catches anymore
2. QB Philip Rivers answered his critics last year and appears capable of putting up big numbers
3. The presence of RB LaDainian Tomlinson and TE Antonio Gates guarantee that opposing defenses can't (or won't) focus too much of their attention on the WR corps
4. Physically, Jackson has WR speed, but is built more like a tight end (6'6", 235 pounds)
5. Although the team lost OC Cam Cameron, it reeled in HC Norv Turner; one of the league's most respected offensive minds

Another bullish consideration has been to look at Jackson's output over the final month of the season, when we became a major part of the base offensive package:

• 13 receptions
• 234 yards
• 3 touchdowns

Pro rating those numbers equates to a respectable:

• 52 receptions
• 936 yards
• 12 touchdowns

While I can't argue against any of the aforementioned points, I can tell you that I'm still worried Jackson is going to fall short of expectations this season.

Last season, Jackson had 6 touchdowns in 27 receptions. As you might imagine, that's a pretty rare occurrence. In the last 20 years, only 7 receivers have notched 6+ TDs in a season while catching 30 or less passes:

• Darnerian McCants 2003 -- 6 TDs in 27 receptions
• Marc Boerigter 2002 -- 8 TDs in 20 receptions
• Tony Jones 1990 -- 6 TDs in 30 receptions
• Wesley Walker 1988 -- 7 TDs in 26 receptions
• Lionel Manuel 1987 -- 6 TDs in 30 receptions
• Daryl Turner 1987 -- 6 TDs in 14 receptions
• Vincent Jackson 2006 -- 6 TDs in 27 receptions

Now how did they perform the following season? It's NOT pretty:

• Darnerian McCants 2004 -- 0 TDs
• Marc Boerigter 2003 -- 0 TDs
• Tony Jones 1991 -- 2 TDs
• Wesley Walker 1989 -- 0 TDs
• Lionel Manuel 1988 -- 4 TDs
• Daryl Turner 1988 -- DNP
• Vincent Jackson 2007 -- TBD

Hardly a sterling endorsement for Jackson's TD production in 2007. But is the sample size too small?  Let's broaden our horizons. In the last 10 years, 55 receivers caught between 20 and 35 passes in their 2nd NFL seasons. How did they fare in the following year?...

Excluding the 2006 entrants, we're left with 49 receivers in our data set [since they've yet to play Year N+1]

• Year N = 29 catches
• Year N = 391 yards
• Year N = 1.9 TDs
• Year N+1 = 32 catches
• Year N+1 = 464 yards
• Year N+1 = 3 TDs

Of the 49 receivers in the sample set:

• Four (4) exceeded 1,000 yards receiving in Year N+1
• Seven (7) exceeded 800 yards receiving in Year N+1
• Six (6) exceeded 5 receiving TDs in Year N+1
• Fourteen (14) exceeded 3 receiving TDs in Year N+1
• As many receivers saw declines in their reception totals (24), as showed improvement (25)
• Almost as many receivers saw declines in their yardage totals (23), as showed improvement (26)
• Almost as many receivers saw declining TD totals (23), as showed improvement (26)
• 19 out of 49 improved in all three categories [39%]
• 7 out of 49 improved in two of three categories [14%]
• 26 out of 49 improved in at least two of three categories [53%]

Now let's revisit the "Norv Turner" factor

As I alluded earlier, I'm not going to sit here and tell you the Chargers made a mistake in hiring Norv Turner given his offensive credential.  But his success as a play-caller has not been particularly kind to his wide receivers historically.

Norv Turner has a long history which paints a pretty clear picture. He believes in running the ball effectively and throwing off play action once you've established a running attack. In Turner's history as both an OC and head coach, his teams have varied greatly in their run/pass ratios...BUT, that's clearly born out of the team's ability to run the ball.

When Turner's teams are able to run the ball, he simply doesn't call a lot of pass plays. This is fact.

In Turner's 16 seasons running NFL offenses, he has had a top-10 rushing offense FOUR times:

• 1992 Dallas -- 4th in rushing attempts, 12th in passing attempts [491]
• 1993 Dallas -- 6th in rushing attempts, 24th in passing attempts [475]
• 2002 Miami -- 1st in rushing attempts, 31st in passing attempts [455]
• 2003 Miami -- 8th in rushing attempts, 30th in passing attempts [450]
• Average -- 467.75 passing attempts

Coincidentally, or not, the Chargers threw the ball 466 times last year. Unless you think Tomlinson and the Chargers ground game are going to cease being one of the league's best, there is no logical reason to think Rivers is going to attempt many more passes. Philip Rivers isn't going to throw more than 480-490 times unless a) the running game falls apart [both Tomlinson AND Turner] or b) the defense crumbles.

Positives

• Vincent Jackson has the inside track on being the Chargers #1 receiver this season
• Physically, Jackson is nearly unmatched in the league
• The Chargers offense is among the league's best, and the combination of QB Philip Rivers and a strong offensive line means plenty of targets coming Jackson's way

Negatives

• Historically, receivers with Jackson's 2006 statistical profile have been at best a roll of the fantasy dice in year N+1
• Norv Turner has a clear cut history of not throwing the ball much when his team has success running the ball
• RB LaDainian Tomlinson and TE Antonio Gates may not be wide receivers, but they are sure to be targeted by Rivers more than any WR on the roster, Jackson included

Final Thoughts

I'm not going to be surprised if Vincent Jackson emerges this year as a solid NFL receiver and, in the process, puts up decent fantasy numbers. That said, the rampant enthusiasm for Jackson and the perception that he has an enormous upside warrant caution on draft day. If you can get him as your WR3 or later, it's a solid bet to make. But don't get caught up in the hype cycle and find yourself relying on Jackson as a WR2 this year, you may come to regret it.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Jon Moore:
He came on strong during the last four games of the season, averaging over 70 yards per game. At 6'5, he makes for a hell of a redzone target, Rivers showed the trust in him to throw it up top to him in the endzone and let him go get it. The playmakers around him may keep him from being a top wide receiver statistically. Gates should still be the first option in the passing game, and Tomlinson is going to be a TD hound as long as he's in the league.

Rev:
My view: VJ has been an athletic specimen and versitile football player since his college days, having both returned kicks and excelled at WR. For a reciever his size to have such speed and lateral quickness, his potential is limitless. Yet, since he's primarily proven himself as a redzone threat at the NFL level, he needs to continue working on his routes and body control after the catch. The Chargers like his ceiling enough to name him as their #1, and his stats should increase with another year of experience and a surge in targets: 71/925/9

Sigmund Bloom, FBG Staff:
I like Jackson's immediate opportunity, but Im not sold on his ability to cash it in.

- Floyd and Gates are better targets in the red zone
- Parker and Davis are better on quick hitter and intermediate outside routes
- Gates is better over the middle

The one thing Jackson has is deep speed, but he's not the most dependable when it comes to finishing the play.

I know that he has been anointed the #1 WR, but isn't the #1 supposed to be dependable, and be able to consistently get open? In general, he doesn't look like a natural when it comes to catching the ball or running his routes. I don't see him developing into a "go-to" guy as some seem to be projecting. McCardell's targets are just as likely to go to Gates (Turner is playing with lining Gates up out wide and in the slot) and Davis (especially as we get deeper into the season) as they are to go to Jackson.

I can see him having 5 or 6 big weeks when he gets long TDs, then posting a lot of 2-35 or 3-40 in between. Deflate him for PPR leagues.

Vincent Jackson Projections