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Spotlight - QB Tarvaris Jackson, Minnesota Vikings

Posted on 7/12, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Mark Wimer's Thoughts

Tarvaris Jackson is still largely an unknown quantity entering the 2007 season. He was thrown to the wolves at the end of 2006 (4 games in which he appeared) and managed 47/81 for 475 yards, 2 TDs and 4 interceptions passing, with 15/77/1 rushing. He is a player who can improvise with his feet, which may make him attractive to fantasy owners in leagues where rushing yards/TDs are weighted more heavily than passing yards/TDs. However, there are a lot of reasons to have doubts about his upcoming season.

First of all, Jackson is very green. He didn't look very "with it" during his starts last season, and reports out of Minnesota from early June indicated that Jackson was struggling to deal with blitzes and pass rush pressure during the Vikings' mini-camp. He's still on the learning curve that is so challenging for rookies/young players -- it takes time and repetitions at the pro level before the game "slows down" and Jackson simply hasn't had many live-game reps.

Secondly, the Viking's receiving corps isn't exactly stacked with talent. Bobby Wade has never racked up more than 500 yards receiving in a season during his career, but he looks like he'll enter 2007 as the Vikings' #1 wideout. Wade is also new to the Vikings, having spent his career in Chicago and Tennessee to date. Troy Williamson (entering his 3^rd NFL season) has not developed into a consistent pass catcher -- he caught 7 balls during weeks 15-16 last year, with a high water mark of 13 targets for 6/74/0 vs. the Jets once he started working with Jackson in real games. Sidney Rice is a rookie, and Billy McMullen is another under-achieving receiver -- he managed 23/307/2 for Minnesota last year. The team paid TE Visanthe Shiancoe big bucks to come over from the Giants, but he's never pulled in more than 12 balls in a season (12/81/0 for the Giants last year). Jim Kleinsasser caught 7 balls over 16 games last season for the Vikings. You get the picture -- the receiving cupboard is pretty bare in Minnesota this year.

Thirdly, with Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson on board at RB and the inexperienced Jackson under center, the Vikings figure to run the ball early and often throughout the season. Run-oriented attacks don't tend to produce exciting passing numbers. Even given Jackson's scrambling ability, don't expect to see Michael Vick-type rushing production while Jackson gets up to speed at the pro level.

Positives

• Jackson is young, so his recuperative abilities haven't yet diminished over time. That should help him bounce back from hard days under center learning to be a pro QB.
• Jackson figures to rack up a few rushing yards and perhaps TDs this season, which could make his fantasy value half-decent on occasion.
• Jackson plays in a dome, so home games won't be affected by the bad northern weather late in the year (compared to, say, Soldier Field in Chicago).

Negatives

• Jackson is as green as grass, and has a very unimpressive and inexperienced receiving corps to work with during the coming season.
• If Jackson continues to struggle with pass rush schemes and reading blitzes, he could find himself losing playing time to back up Brooks Bollinger.
• The Vikings are rebuilding this year, and generally speaking young QBs on rebuilding teams don't put up impressive stats.

Final Thoughts

Jackson is not likely to be sufficiently productive to land on a fantasy roster as a #1 or #2 QB -- he'll be a stop-gap, emergency option at best this season.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

shadyridr:
Completely undraftable (and that has nothing to do whether he is talented or not). He is too green, has horrible WRs to throw to, plays on a defensive team, and has 2 stud RBs to hand off to. Plus from what I remember last year, he doesnt run much.

az prof:
I disagree that he is undraftable, and given that most people think he is, you can get good value for him as your backup QB very late. Yes, his WRs are not great, but this is Williamson's third year and he should break out--has been working very hard in the off season. Also, the addition of Rice and AP will help. One thing people forget to mention when comparing him unfavorably to other young QBs (all drafted higher) is that he has a very good OL to protect him, and the strong running game makes it harder for teams to blitz. Also, although he didn't run for as much yardage as Young, he did run very effectively and will run for more yardage than most people project. Finally, he will benefit from growth and development: last year he did not get the benefit of all the starting reps in mini-camps and preseason; this year he will. All reports indicate that short of a major collapse he will win the starting job.

rzrback77:
You definitely can have Tarvaris Jackson cheap. He is a relative unknown considering that he was drafted in the second round. He is an athletic 6'-2" 225# that runs fairly well. He has a fairly strong arm. He played at Arkansas, but had some injury issues and was behind the immensely popular Matt Jones so he went home to Alabama and played in a lower classification in college.

His biggest question without a doubt is experience. I have read many positive comments about his work ethic and it appears that the Vikings are set to give him every opportunity to keep the QB job in 07. The other consistent comments on this board are that he plays without talented WRs and on a run first, run second, and run third team. I am not convinced of the truth of those comments though.

The Vikings had the 9th most passing attempts last season and heavily involved the RBs and TEs on short routes. Their passing yardage ranked only 18th again pointing out the short routes that they relied on with Brad Johnson under center last year.

I think that their WRs will improve in 07 and I think that their offense in general will surprise behind an outstanding offensive line. You could do much worse than stocking other positions and drafting Jackson as a bye week filler that might have ample opportunity to play even better than just a fill-in.

Tarvaris Jackson Projections