All Spotlights • Darrell Jackson Player Page • SF Projections • WR Projections • WR Rankings • SF Team Report

Spotlight - WR Darrell Jackson, San Francisco 49ers

Posted on 6/24, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Darrell Jackson is one of my favorite players (even though he's never worn an Eagles uniform). For some reason, it always seems I find value in Jackson where others don't. And generally I've been rewarded for my optimism.

From a fantasy perspective, Jackson has been a good, not great performer. He's got one top-10 season under his belt (2003) and three other top-20 seasons (2001, 2004, 2006). Last year he failed to break the 1,000-yard mark for (63 catches for 956 yards) but did score 10 touchdowns, a career best. When you consider he missed 3 games AND that QB Matt Hasselbeck took time to shake off the injury rust; it was a decent enough season.

Unfortunately, I"m paid to be objective and that's going to keep me away from DJax this year unless his average draft position falls between now and late August. His current ADP (WR19) is about in line with his historical productivity, yet his circumstances have changed for the worse, I fear.

1) He's changed teams -- The Seahawks traded Jackson to the 49ers this offseason for 4th round draft pick. The good news is Jackson moves from one West Coast offense to another. The bad news is the 49ers offense is far from proven and bears little resemblance to the powerhouse unit Mike Holmgren fields. Although Jackson will clearly be the 49ers #1 target, one has to ask yourself why the Seahawks would be willing to send their top receiver to a division rival of all places.

2) The 49ers passing attack leaves much to be desired -- The 49ers haven't fielded a 1,000-yard receiver since 2003 (Terrell Owens) and have been among the league's worst passing teams under HC Mike Nolan. In the last two seasons, the 49ers ranked:

• 2005 -- 31st in attempts, 32nd in completions, 32nd in passing yards, 32nd in pass TDs
• 2006 -- 30th in attempts, 29th in completions, 29th in passing yards, 26th in pass TDs

When you consider that Norv Turner was calling the plays last season, but unproven OC Jim Hostler will be drawing up the Xs and Os in 2007, it's a stretch to project a major leap forward in the passing game simply by adding Jackson to the mix.

3) The 49ers running game and defense are on the come -- Frank Gore emerged last season as one of the league's best all around backs. As a result, the team finished 6th in rushing (2,172 yards) and 2nd in YPR (4.96). This is a team that can, and will try to win games with a conservative ball control style. Meanwhile the defense, which struggled last year (28th in yards allowed, 32nd in points allowed) signed the best free agent defender (Nate Clements), a solid safety (Michael Lewis) and drafted the best LB prospect (Patrick Willis). It's not unreasonable to think the 49ers will be better defensively, which only adds to the likelihood that SF will play it close to the vest in the passing game.

4) He remains an above average injury risk -- Jackson has missed 13 games in the last two seasons due to a variety of injuries. Most disturbing, the turf toe which robbed him of his explosiveness last year has apparently not responded to the rest this offseason, and Jackson is now slated to miss time until at least the start of training camp. Turf toe can kill a receiver's productivity; and it's very disturbing to think time off hasn't improved matters. If this turns out to be chronic, Jackson will be a wasted fantasy pick.

What's a reasonable baseline expectation for Jackson?

In his career, Jackson has averaged:

• 4.6 receptions per game
• 67 receiving yards per game
• 14.6 yards per reception
• 0.5 TDs per game

Over that span, the Seahawks as a team have averaged:

• 19.2 receptions per game
• 225 receiving yards per game
• 1.4 TDs per game

Meaning Jackson accounted for:

• 24% of the team's receptions
• 30% of the team's yardage
• 35% of the team's receiving TDs

If we were to assign those percentages to the projected output for the 49ers as a team (using Footballguys site projections), we would get:

• 69 receptions
• 999 yards
• 7 TDs
• 142 fantasy points

Those numbers would put Jackson:

• WR20 in 2006
• WR19 in 2005
• WR25 in 2004
• WR16 in 2003
• WR18 in 2002

As a baseline, it looks like Jackson's numbers project right in line with his current ADP. HOWEVER, I think that fails to adjust for his injury situation and the increased risk that the 49ers offense falls short of expectations based on the new OC and the uncertain evolution of QB Alex Smith.

Positives

• When healthy, Jackson is a savvy veteran of the West Coast offense who runs crisp routes, scores touchdowns at a high rate and generates yards after the catch
• He will unquestionably be the 49ers top target at the WR position, unless you think Ashley Lelie is due for a career season
• The 49ers offense bolstered the offensive line, and QB Alex Smith is too young to rule out a major leap forward

Negatives

• Jackson goes from being the top target on one of the league's best offenses to a top target on one of its worst
• His lingering turf toe injury is a major warning flag; don't draft him unless he's practiced with regularity in training camp
• Jackson has a history of costly drops; something he can ill afford given the more conservative nature of the 49ers play-calling

Final Thoughts

Darrell Jackson is a talented, albeit flawed receiver. He's often been a good fantasy receiver, but he's never been great. Moving to a team that's been among the league's worst passing units isn't going to help matters, nor will his lingering turf toe. If you're willing to look past his injury risk, please keep in mind that his historical levels of productivity project to less than 1,000 yards receiving and 70 catches in the 49ers conservative offense. That means, DJax should be viewed as an OK WR2 or very solid WR3 for fantasy purposes. Nothing more, yet I bet at least one member of your league will think otherwise. Don't reach for him, but don't let him fall beyond WR25, either.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

shadyridr:
As a 49ers fan I love the move. As a fantasy player I can see the move hurting his numbers a bit. The 49ers offense isnt up to par as the Seahawks. Alex Smith is not Matt Hasselbeck. But DJax will be a very good red zone threat. Plus DJax alway tends to miss a few games. I think Jackson will be a VERY solid WR2 and may be a WR1 if he can play all 16 games which I don't think he will.

Blue-Kun:
It comes down to how big a leap Alex Smith is going to take as a QB. I think he'll certainly do better than last season, but the offense isn't going to give D-Jax the gaudy numbers he had in Seattle despite only playing 13 games. He'd be lucky to replicate them even if he stayed healthy for the entire season. It's not like defenses are going to not notice that D-Jax and Vernon Davis are going to be the two big targets once the Niners fall behind (Which they did early and often last year). As much as I like Arnaz Battle, he's not a real scary guy catching the ball.

Byron_nyc:
You don't trade a potentially productive WR1 to an opponent in your division. Mike Holmgren knows something we don't about DJax. Expect a dropoff.

Darrell Jackson Projections