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Spotlight - WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cincinnati Bengals

Posted on 7/1, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

When you're a competitive person, it's difficult to play in someone else's shadow. A lot of great people, ranging from professional athletes to corporate executives, have let their egos and wanderlust move them away from great situations where they were solid #2s in order to go to a less compelling situation as the #1.

In T.J. Houshmandzadeh's case, no one would fault him for wanting to leave Cincinnati at some point. After all, he's been playing second fiddle to Chad Johnson for the entirety of his pro career AND as teammates at Oregon State. Yet, Houshmandzadeh isn't your typical #2, and seems genuinely satisfied to be one of the best WR2s in the league. That's great news for fantasy owners, because Housh continues to deliver excellent fantasy results in spite of his position as Carson Palmer's 2nd best option.

Last year, when many (myself included) predicted his numbers to level off, he set career bests across the board:

• 90 receptions (7th in the NFL)
• 1,081 yards (his first 1,000-yard season)
• 9 TDs (6th in the NFL)
• 11th place fantasy finish

This year, things look promising for a Bengals offense that finished 8th last year despite significant hurdles.

• Carson Palmer is healthy -- Palmer surprised a lot of people last year by playing the full season at a near Pro Bowl level. Coming off knee surgery after the Pittsburgh playoff loss, few expected Palmer to return to full strength so quickly. But being on the field is a far cry from playing at the peak of his ability and Palmer was the first to admit that unease over his knee led to tentative play and a lack of conditioning. There is no such worry this year as Palmer is healthy and appears ready to challenge Peyton Manning for top honors among AFC passers.
• The offensive line loses on great, but gets another back -- Eric Steinbach is going to be difficult to replace at left guard, but Andrew Whitworth projects as a solid starter. While the loss of Steinbach is a net negative, don't forget that the Bengals get LT Levi Jones back healthy after missing 11 games last season. Jones' return to the lineup, at a more important position, arguably improves the Bengals O-line situation more than Steinbach's departure.
• A thinner WR corps -- Chad Johnson (3rd) and Houshmandzadeh (8th) were among the most targeted receivers in the AFC last year, yet may be in line for a heavier workload this year because of the suspension of WR3 Chris Henry and the limited experience of the other backups.
• A porous defense -- The Bengals defense ranked 31st last year and the lack of major offseason improvements means the Bengals will be forced into a throwing mode quite often in order to outscore their opponents.
• A fantastic schedule -- According to our Ultimate Strength of Schedule, the Bengals WR corps faces the 4th easiest schedule in the league this year, and has the highest percentage of "easy" games [defined as those against the 8 worst passing defenses]. When one of the league's best passing teams goes up against one of the easiest schedules, it's usually fantasy gold.

Despite very solid numbers that continue to improve, there are a few warning flags that you need to be aware of before selecting T.J. early on draft day.

1. His yards per reception is on the decline -- Housh was never confused for a burner, but last year his yards-per-reception average fell to 12.0; the lowest of his starting career and down for the 3rd consecutive season. Whether this is a statistical quirk or portends a loss of straight-line speed remains to be seen. By itself, this isn't something to worry too much about, but declining YPR is often an early warning sign for loss of overall effectiveness.
2. He broke his back last season, literally -- In February a lot of eyebrows were raised when Housh admitted to the press that he played the final month of the season with four broken bones in his back. "I got an X-ray and it showed I had four cracked bones in my back. There's nothing you can do," said Houshmandzadeh, who had 35 of his career-high 90 catches after the injury. "You can't have surgery, you can't take a pain pill. Nothing. I was able to play, but it was killing me though. I couldn't really block. I couldn't do much. I couldn't even sleep. No one knew it but the coaches. They know I've got the highest pain tolerance on the team." Now I'm not doctor, but I can't imagine broken bones in your back should be considered something to be dismissed out of hand until we see Housh back playing in full pads, wouldn't you agree?

Positives

• Houshmandzadeh is sure-handed (69% catches-to-targets ratio), and is targeted often in the red zone (4th most in the league); suggesting that last year's 9 TDs and 90 catches may be a new baseline
• Housh's supporting cast is stellar. Carson Palmer is among the league's best, Chad Johnson assures that defenses can't double Housh consistently, and Rudi Johnson pounds the ball requiring defenses to keep 7 in the box usually
• The Bengals WR corps faces one of the easiest fantasy schedules in the league this season

Negatives

• Housh has missed games in each of the last two seasons, and suffered a concussion and four broken bones in his back late last year
• Housh eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark last year for the first time in his sixth season; don't expect him to deliver overpowering yardage totals
• Although he finished WR11 last year, he very much remains second fiddle to Chad Johnson and will be hard pressed to materially exceed his ADP as a result

Final Thoughts

T.J. Houshmandzadeh has finished WR14 and WR11 in the last two seasons, and is coming off his finest effort. Given the strength of his supporting cast and the ease of his schedule, he seems a likely bet to deliver his 3rd consecutive top-20 fantasy finish. As long as you can grab him at the proper ADP, he's a very solid bet. However, don't get too aggressive and start predicting a top-10 finish; leave that honor to Chad Johnson yet again.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Iceman56751:
Houshmandzadeh finished 31st in 2004 (104 targets), and 14th in 2005 (115 targets in 14 games). He didn't reach 1000 yards in either year, and managed a total of 11 TDs. That's not bad for a player that is not the leading receiver on his own team, but 2006 looked a lot different. Despite missing the first two games, Houshmandzadeh went over 1000 yards for the first time. In fact, he was targeted 133 times in his 14 games, and posted 1081 yards and 9 TDs. That's a significant increase, and one which has been largely ignored so far by most FF players.

shadyridr:
I have to admit 2 years ago I thought TJs year was a fluke so I wasnt high on him. But last year he proved me wrong. Hes Palmer's possession WR. And with Henry out it will just help his numbers with people usually double teaming CJ. Plus he is a redzone threat as well. Last year he wouldve been a WR1 if he didnt miss a few games. I think he will be low WR1, GREAT WR2 this year.

rzrback77:
TJ Housh (can I call him that? I'm a terrible typist) has continued to improve his stats over the past three seasons. Last year, even while Henry scored a few big games, TJ improved. This season Palmer is healthy out of the gate and Henry is suspended. I think that the Cinci offense will not miss a beat, especially in the passing game, so there should be more opportunities for both Chad Johnson and TJ.

The only problem is everybody knows about TJ now. His targets have gone from 69 in 03 to 104 in 04 to 115 in 05 and finally to 133 last year. But the numbers are even better than that as the per game targets have gone up 4.3, 6.5, 8.7, and 9.5. That's huge. And then there's the extremely popular fantasy football commercial that will again get lots of play late this summer. He's the trendy pick. According to FBGs, his ADP is currently WR 14 and 45 overall. Wow, he is still a bargain. Still a solid WR to get there.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh Projections