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Spotlight - WR Joe Horn, Atlanta Falcons

Posted on 7/1, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Mark Wimer's Thoughts

Joe Horn is entering his 12^th NFL season this year. He has caught 576 passes during his career (for 8501 yards and 57 TDs), but the pounding of playing professional football for over a decade has started to take its toll. He has only played one full 16 game slate in the last 3 years, and struggled with a nagging, partially torn groin muscle last year. He played in 10 games with 37/679/4 to show for his 2006 season. Heading into 2007, Horn has landed with the Atlanta Falcons' passing attack (the team is in turmoil due to coaching turnover and Michael Vick's ongoing legal woes related to his possible involvement in dog-fighting circles).

In short, an aging veteran (Horn) has landed with a team in transition. The Falcons perennially rank in the bottom 3 or 4 passing attacks in the NFL since the ascension of QB Michael Vick to the controls:

• 2,631 passing yards during 2003, 31^st in the NFL
• 2,691 passing yards during 2004, 30^th in the NFL
• 2,907 passing yards in 2005, 28^th in the NFL
• 2,682 passing yards during 2006, 32^nd in the NFL

Vick is entangled in a federal investigation and may be facing serious jail time thanks to a new federal law aimed at dismantling the underground dog-fighting industry. Did I mention that Michael Vick's new backup is Joey Harrington (never better than 17^th best fantasy QB in any season during his career, and 25^th and 27^th during the last 2 years). This isn't a pretty picture, folks.

In order for a player to produce top-notch fantasy stats, he must be in a position to maximize his talent/potential. Given Horn's decline over the last few years, and the cellar-dwelling passing attack that he is joining, his 2007 prospects don't look too rosy, despite the fact he may well be the best wide receiver in this sorry stable (when healthy).

Positives

• Horn looks like a lock to be a starter for the Falcons as they don't have much behind Michael Jenkins at this position
• Horn has lots of NFL experience
• Horn passed the Falcon's physical before joining the team, so presumably his groin injury is healed

Negatives

• Horn has a ton of mileage on his tires and his body appears to be wearing down
• The Falcons' passing attack is not impressive with Vick at the controls, and Joey Harrington doesn't inspire much enthusiasm either
• Starting for the Falcons at receiver has meant somewhere in the range of 40-50 receptions unless your name is Alge Crumpler (his best year was in 2005 with 65/877/5)

Final Thoughts

Horn is not likely to be a fantasy football starter this year -- at best, you could hope for some good games against weak pass defenses. Vick's inconsistency from week to week also makes figuring out which weeks to start Atlanta receivers a maddening puzzle. Honestly, I'd let someone else take on this headache, but if you find yourself considering Horn for your squad, look for production in the 40-50 range at his position.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

KING:
Horn's time has come, and gone. He had a great 5 year run, but has caught fewer passes the last 2 years combined, than he did in '04. At 35, how much is left in the tank? not that he can't contribute. Perhaps the Falcons are looking at horn as more of an on the field coach. A veteran presence to help the young 1st round picks that have been floundering. Even if horn does stay healthy, i don't see him as a viable FF option due to Vick.

msommer:
This board has had many arguments on Vick as to whether his passes are uncatchable or his receivers have a lot of drops. Let's say it is a little bit of both. Horn has pertty good hands so it is not impossible that he will make Vicks completion percentage increase (for precedent see T.O./McNabb) Horn had a ypc last year of 18. But if you look at his game logs the number he posts with most regularity is about 12 - which is below his carreer average of about 15 and below his average 2003-2005 of 13.5. 12.5 seems like a good number. Given his speed is in question and his hands are good it would be difficult not to see Horn being used in 3rd down situations and over the middle. Over the middle he might steal a bit from Crumpler even. Does any one believe that Horn will be WR3 if healthy? I'd guess that Horn will at least double the number of receptions as the previous #2 - Roddy White. White's ypc suggests that he will be suited as WR3 - so his reception total should stay about the same, might dip a little bit.

Ministry of Pain:
Horn averaged over 18 yards a catch last season. And he has always been a better fly pattern guy than over the middle but somehow in NO they turned him into the WR1 and made forced him to go over the middle all the time...leading to a lot of his injuries I might add. Last year he was allowed to roam a lot more downfield and he did well in the games he played.

Wk2 5/88
wk3 3/47
wk4 5/63
wk5 4/48
wk6 6/110/2
wk7 Bye
wk8 5/126/1...are these over the hill numbers?
wk9 DNP
wk10 DNP
wk11 3/93/1...coming off an injury
wk12 3/61

Then he was done for the season. Is brees a better QB? Sure he is but Horn will find room and Vick can actually throw the long ball for days...if Horn can track some of those down and I expect he will...I am more optimistic than many on [the board].

Joe Horn Projections