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Spotlight - RB Travis Henry, Free agent

Posted on 6/10, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

A season ago, Travis Henry was considered the odd man out in Tennessee. The Titans had selected LenDale White in the 2^nd round of the NFL draft, and Chris Brown was coming off a much better season than Henry. Many thought it was just a matter of time before Henry was released; in favor of the more productive Brown and the promising rookie.  

Yet, when the dust settled it was Henry who played a pivotal role in the Titans' surprising 8-8 season. Compare the relative performances of each running back:

• LenDale White -- 13 games played, 244 rushing yards (4.0 YPR), 14 receptions, 60 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns
• Chris Brown -- 5 games played, 156 rushing yards (3.8 YPR), 2 receptions, 4 receiving yards, 0      touchdowns
• Travis Henry -- 14 games played, 1,211 rushing yards (4.5 YPR), 18 receptions, 78 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns

With those numbers, behind what most considered an average offensive line, Henry would be an intriguing fantasy option if he were returning to Tennessee. But Henry parlayed his resurgence into a dream scenario for any running back: he's the new lead dog in Denver.

Dissecting Henry's move to Denver 

The last few years, Broncos coach Mike Shanahan hasn't had a feature back. While the Broncos overall rushing attack has remained near the top of league standings, it's been via running back-by-committee (RBBC).

• 2006 -- Tatum Bell 233 carries, Mike Bell 157 carries
• 2005 -- Mike Anderson 239 carries, Tatum Bell 173 carries
• 2004 -- Reuben Droughns 275 carries, Quentin Griffin 85 carries, Tatum Bell 75 carries 

Not since Clinton Portis ran for 1,591 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2003 has Shanahan had that one guy he could rely on to drive the rushing game. Shanny thought he had Portis' replacement in Tatum Bell; but Bell's inability to hold onto the ball became too much; and he was traded to Detroit this offseason.

Enter Henry. The Broncos moved aggressively to sign Henry to a 5-year, $22.5 million contract that includes $12 million in guarantees. Combine that with the Broncos decision to trade away Tatum Bell and there is little doubt that Travis Henry will be THE guy in Denver. 

Minimal Downside

As long as Travis Henry stays healthy, his fantasy outlook is among the safest bets in the league. The Broncos may not have had a truly dominant runner lately, but the overall rushing attack has remained stellar:

• 2006 -- 9^th in rushes, 8^th in yards, 9^th in yards per rush, 21^st in rushing TDs
• 2005 -- 2^nd in rushes, 2^nd in yards, 4^th in yards per rush, 3^rd in rushing TDs
• 2004 -- 2^nd in rushes, 4^th in yards, 8^th in yards per rush, 15^th in rushing TDs 

The Denver Yards-per-Rush Advantage

Travis Henry averaged a career-best 4.5 yards per rush last season; raising his career average to 4.1 yards per carry. If past history is any indication, he may be in line for a significant increase in his average per carry now that he's wearing Broncos Orange. Consider: 

• Clinton Portis -- 5.5 YPR as a Bronco, 4.1 YPR as a Redskin
• Reuben Droughns -- 4.4 YPR as a Bronco, 3.7 YPR as a Lion/Brown
• Olandis Gary -- 4.2 YPR as a Bronco, 3.4 YPR as a Lion

On average, Broncos running backs have averaged almost a full yard less per carry running for other teams. Can Henry improve as much?

Even if he only improves 0.5 yards against his career mark, you're looking at 4.6 yards per carry. Given the heavy workload he's sure to enjoy, that's 1,300 yards at a minimum.

Other Considerations

• Receiving Outlook -- Travis Henry caught 43 passes in his second year, but has never again approached that tally. His career average of 6.6 yards per reception speaks to his pedestrian route-running abilities. He is capable of catching dump off passes in the flat, but he's not going to be confused for Reggie Bush anytime soon.
• Touchdown Expectations -- Henry scored seven touchdowns last year in 270 carries; which is in line with his career average of 1 TD per 39 rushes.  As a team, the Broncos have converted a      higher rate under Shanahan (1 TD per 28 rushes); so it's not unreasonable to think Henry will become more effective in his new surroundings.
• The Mike Bell Factor -- By now you're wondering why I haven't mentioned Mike Bell. After all, the rookie did rush for almost 677 yards and 8 touchdowns last year. While that's true, remember that Mike Bell got fewer than 20 carries in all but one game; and more importantly was stuffed behind the line of scrimmage more than 10% of the time. That's not the kind of back Shanny is going to ride for long. 
• The Schedule -- It can be misleading to look at last year's strength of schedule and extrapolate      that forward, but it's hard to characterize the Broncos' 2007 schedule as anything short of daunting versus the run: Minnesota (1^st), Pittsburgh (3^rd), Jacksonville (4^th), Chicago (6^th), San Diego (7^th), Green Bay (13^th).  

Positives

• Henry was given a 5-year deal with more than $12mm in guaranteed money; he will be the Broncos primary workhorse
• The Denver running game is consistently productive; and runners have averaged almost a yard more per carry in Denver than playing for other teams
• Henry is a strong, physical runner with a low center of gravity with proven success in a number of different offensive schemes

Negatives

• Travis Henry isn't a natural receiver, and won't put up big receiving yards like other top running backs
• Jay Cutler is unproven and if the Broncos passing game falls short of expectations, it might allow defenses to key on the run more than usual
• The Broncos face a daunting schedule, including games against five of last year's toughest run defenses

Final Thoughts

Last year, Travis Henry surprised everyone with an extremely solid season playing in Tennessee. But the Titans chose not to pay him an $8mm roster bonus and their loss was the Broncos gain. Mike Shanahan moved quickly to sign Henry to a 5-year deal, and traded away his only real competition in Tatum Bell. Henry is now in a great position to leverage his considerable talents for one of the league's most consistent and productive offenses. Anything less than 1,400 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns would be surprising, barring injury. That makes Henry a viable 1^st round pick, and an absolute steal in the 2^nd round of redraft leagues.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Tubalcane:
I think Shanny will ride Henry if he gets hot...and he will. I think Henry is hungry and it will reflect in his totals at the end of the year. I also think Henry will be one of the best grabs at the top of the second round (maybe middle). I just don't think many people will jump at him early. Henry could be a major player in fantasy leagues this year as a second RB...kinda like Parker and Gore last year.

CalBear:
People have been burned by Denver RBs for several years now, which is why Travis Henry currently represents possibly the best RB value on the board. For the first time since 2003, the Denver starting RB is clearly known before the season; the situation is not analagous to situations involving Tatum Bell, Mike Bell, Mike Anderson, and Ron Dayne, because in none of those cases had Denver gone out and spent a lot of money on a specific player. There is little concern that Mike Bell will pressure Henry for serious carries, so we know who's going to get the carries in Denver, and generally that's been an important thing to know.

So what about Henry himself? He's a player who has been cast aside by two different teams, but he's also a Pro Bowler who put up 1700 combined with 14 TDs in Buffalo, and last year put up 1300 combined and 7 TDs in Tennessee in only 14 games. He's not a flashy RB, but he works hard and should be a good fit for Denver's system. It seems obvious that he should outdo his Tennessee numbers in Denver, so 1300 combined with 7 TDs is an absolute floor for him. I'm not willing to project him to duplicate his 2002 season, or duplicate Portis' output, but he should at least match Mike Anderson's starting Denver numbers, which will make him a solid starting RB1.

Just Win Baby:
Every year he started, he averaged 100+ yards per game, and for the three seasons as a starter he averaged 11+ TDs per 16 games. And he hasn't been playing on great offenses... Denver's will easily be the best he has played for. The only risks here are injury (but he has proved toughness in the past) and fumblitis (overplayed in this thread by a lot IMO).

Travis Henry Projections