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Spotlight - WR Devery Henderson, New Orleans Saints

Posted on 7/20, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Cecil Lammey's Thoughts

Devery Henderson is a playmaker at the WR position, and he has the potential to develop into an even more reliable target for the Saints.  He can get open against zone coverage, and when he gets the ball in his hands he is very dangerous and hard to bring down.  A former RB while in college at LSU, Henderson was converted to WR, but still retains that RB toughness and running style.  Using his fluid hips and body control, Henderson can set up defenders in the secondary and use his athleticism to get around them.  He also has just enough power to run through some arm tackles. 

The Saints will need him to take the next step in his NFL career this season.  Joe Horn is now gone to Atlanta, and that means the #2 WR spot is wide open.  Henderson has the early lead on the starting job, but coaches know that he must display more consistency on game day.  Henderson has heard the critics, and this offseason he has been working very closely with the coaching staff so that when camp opens he will be ready.  Drew Brees is arguably the 2nd best QB in the NFL, and Henderson has the benefit of playing with an explosive offense in New Orleans.  So the question remains; can Henderson overcome his lack of consistency and become a force to be reckoned with?      

Questions about Devery Henderson coming into 2007:

Q: Will he take the #2 job opposite of Marques Colston?
A: There is no one that knows this answer currently, not even the coaching staff.  We interviewed Jeff Duncan from the New Orleans Times-Picayune and he stated that the coaches would like to see Henderson get the job, but for now the competition is wide open.  Marques Colston is now the #1 WR and will be double teamed by most every team that the Saints face this season.  This means single coverage for whoever is the 2nd receiver.  Henderson has the skill set that makes him a very effective slot receiver, but can that translate to the #2 position?  Devery has become a better route runner, after all he is still developing as a WR after starting his college career at LSU as a RB.  He seems the most likely to have the starting job opposite of Colston, but that decision is far from being made and nothing is guaranteed in the NFL.  The question should be, how long can he hold onto that starting job, if in fact he is named a starter?

Q: Can he become a more consistent receiver?
A: Lack of consistency is the only thing that is a question mark in Henderson's game.  He has good speed, is improving as a route runner, and his hands are pretty good when he's focused.  It seems that concentration is Henderson's problem.  If he's not involved heavily in the game plan, like some other receivers, he seems to lose focus and thus his consistency is affected.  It also seems that Devery needs to heat up during a game, and cannot start the game on fire.  Last season his lowest target to reception ratio came on 1st down (26 targets with only 12 receptions).  So when the team was looking to him early, it seemed as though Devery wasn't ready. 

Q: Does Robert Meachem challenge him for playing time?
A: The short answer is "no".  Not right now, may be the long answer.  The Saints drafted Meachem in the 1st round of the 2007 NFL Draft with the hopes that he could maybe step right into the starting lineup.  Meachem showed up to mini-camps unimpressive and out of shape.  To make things even worse, Robert injured his right knee and missed the team's final minicamp.  Robert Meachem could turn into an outstanding pro, but his career has gotten off on the wrong foot.  In other words, Meachem should be the one player that Henderson won't have to worry about -- for now.   

Q: Will Henderson break into the top 32 WRs in the league?
A: In 2006, Henderson was the 34th ranked fantasy receiver.  So with a slight increase in production he should be right there, correct?  Not so fast.  Henderson was only targeted 4 times in the red zone last year.  In order to become one of the best in the league he needs to score more than 5 TDs in a season.  His game is not made for red zone targets, as Henderson is not that tall and he needs space to really do the most damage.  So in order for Devery to score more he is going to need to make more big plays.  That may not be out of the question, as Devery's average last season on 3rd and 7 (or more) was 33.0 yards per catch!  Also, Henderson heated up as the year went on.  Even though only 1 of his 5 TDs happened in the final 8 weeks, he saw an increase in targets (from 17 to 43), an increase in receptions (from 11 to 24), and an increase in yardage (from 221 to 616).  The chances are pretty likely that Henderson will be in the top-32 this year.

Q: Where do you draft Henderson in a re-draft league?
A: Henderson's current ADP is WR38, which if you believe he will finish top 32 makes him a value pick in most leagues.

Positives

• Great run after the catch ability
• Plays with a hot streak
• Knows how to get open on the underneath routes

Negatives

• Too inconsistent to be relied on as an every week starter
• Will disappear completely from the stat line some weeks
• Strong competition from Meachem, Copper, Jones expected

Final Thoughts

This season we will see if Henderson's hard work in the offseason will pay off. The situation is setting up nicely for the young WR, and for those looking for 3rd year WRs who will break out, Henderson has to be near the top of the list. Devery's concentration is his biggest obstacle to overcome. If he stays healthy and becomes a more consistent receiver then he could develop into a solid WR3 for your fantasy team.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

shadyridr:
I like Henderson alot this year. I believe hes going to be the starter most of the year as Meachem learns the NFL. Copper started last year over Henderson because he knew the WR position opposite Colston better but I believe they will use the preseason to groom Henderson into that position. Henderson is a deep threat in the vein of Bernard Berrian and I expect similar solid yet inconsistent numbers this year in this high powered attack.

Macdaddy 2004:
Henderson is a big play WR - he won't catch a lot of balls behind Bush and Colston but when he does he will make an impact

rzrback77:
he New Orleans Saints were fifth in the NFL in passing attempts in 06, 4th in passing TDs, and 1st in passing yardage. They will remain effective passing the ball in 07, but look for their team ranking in all of these categories to drop. The Saints defense is improved this season, Reggie Bush is more experienced (less dancing, more running) and Deuce McAllister is another year removed from his knee surgery. They also drafted Antonio Pittman, who should be a more effective 3rd RB than Stecker was in 06.

I say all of that to say that there will be more running by the Saints in 06 and that will mean less passing. Now, consider who Brees passed to in 06. I was surprised by some of these numbers. Looking at Saints targets in 06:

Bush 121 - an amazing 21.2%
Other RBs 92 - WOW, another 16.1%
TEs 71 - 12.4% and could be higher with Johnson added
Colston 115 - 20.2% and he missed a couple of games
Horn 61 - 10.7% He's gone
Henderson 55 - 9.6%
Copper 42 - 7.4%
Jamal Jones 10 - 1.7%
Other WRs 3 -

I think that the RB targets will remain a very high percentage Bush is perhaps the best RB receiver in the NFL and Deuce is solid as well. Pittman and Stecker if he stays will also have targets. Colston will be the most involved WR. Henderson, Copper, and Meacham will all play and Jamal Jones will as well if one of the top four are injured. TE targets will remain the same or have a bigger slice of the target pie with Johnson coming over. And the passing attempts will drop to around 520, an average of 32.5 per game.

Devery Henderson Projections