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Spotlight - QB Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks

Posted on 8/6, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Matt Hasselbeck has always been a favorite fantasy QB of mine. I often find myself looking for my starting QB in the middle rounds of my draft, focusing on the other skill positions in the early rounds. Hasselbeck, for quite a few of his years in Seattle, was available in the 6th, 7th, 8th rounds of 12-team redrafts. And year in, year out he represented great value. Then came last season, following the Seahawks Super Bowl appearance, and Hassy was a consensus top-5 QB. As is often the case in the NFL, Hasselbeck's ascension to elite fantasy status was met with injury and a subpar performance.

• 11 full games played (and a partial 12th)
• 210 completions (lowest in 5 years)
• 371 attempts (lowest in 5 years)
• 56.7% completion
• 2,442 yards (lowest in 5 years)
• 6.6 yards per attempt (lowest in 5 years)
• 18 TD passes (lowest in 5 years)
• 15 INTs (tied for highest of his career)
• QB22 fantasy ranking (his first non top-20 season since 2001)

After undergoing offseason shoulder surgery (on his non-throwing shoulder), there was some concern that we had seen the last of Hasselbeck as a Pro Bowl performer.

Don't bet on it. He's back practicing at full strength and no one that's seen in in training camp thinks he's in any way hampered. This isn't a question of wondering whether he's healthy, there's no objective way you could see him perform and conclude otherwise.

Reasons for optimism (beyond his own health and proven history) include:

• WR Corps is deep and talented -- Some of your league members may focus on the losses of Darrell Jackson and TE Jerramy Stevens. Yet, the savvy fantasy owner will realize that sometimes there is addition by subtraction. Jackson, for all his many talents, never met a pass he didn't want to drop. And yet somehow Jerramy Stevens made DJax look surehanded. In their place are a bevy of intriguing options. At WR, the team has Deion Branch, Nate Burleson, Bobby Engram and this year's breakout potential star, D.J. Hackett. At TE, sure-handed Marcus Pollard will be there to scoop up first down passes like they're going out of style.
• The offensive line should be better -- Any time you lose an All Pro like Steve Hutchinson, there is going to be a transition period, and the Seahawks line didn't have the cohesive dominance that had been its hallmark under Mike Holmgren. But this year should be much improved. The team is no longer shocked by Hutch's departure, and youngsters Rob Simms, Ray Willis and Chris Spencer are getting rave reviews.
• Shaun Alexander is healthy, too -- Much like Hass, Alexander suffered an injury riddled season in 2006. This year he should be back, healthy and ready to drop 15+ TDs on opposing defenses. A healthy Alexander opens up the passing game in so many ways.

Positives

• Matt is a talented, experience West Coast passer and has a complete understanding of the all the subtleties of Mike Holmgren's offense
• Prior to last season, Hass had been a top-10 fantasy passer (on a per game basis) for three straight seasons
• The supporting cast looks to be improved across the board, thanks to renewed health and addition by subtraction

Negatives

• Hass has missed time in two of the last three seasons
• While the offensive line looks better on paper, games are played on the field and there remains some uncertainty until we see this unit in action
• By virtue of Shaun Alexander's scoring prowess, Hass isn't likely to throw 30+ TDs (i.e., limited upside)

Final Thoughts

Matt Hasselbeck sits atop the 2nd tier of fantasy passers. This year, you probably want to focus on one of the big 5 (Manning, Palmer, Brady, Bulger, Brees) to ensure yourself a fantasy edge; but if you instead prefer to focus on RB/TE/WR in the first four or five rounds, Hasselbeck can be a nice consolation prize. He's got the experience, the pedigree, the supporting cast and the mastery of the system to dominate. Draft accordingly.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

shadyridr:
I think Matt Hasslebeck is a bit overrated as an NFL QB. He has been considered a top 5 NFL QB in previous years but I think he has now fallen out of the top 10. I predict he is a cap casualty in SEA within 2 years. Some people will say its his injuries that caused him to have a ppor year last year but I think its more that hes an average NFL QB who happened to be in a great system. After losing some of his OLinemen and some of his WRs he seemed to make a ton of mistakes as his true gunslinger mentality became a bit of a negative. That being said he is still a great fantasy QB and should put up very respectable top 6 QB numbers.

rzrback77:
Matt Hasselbeck finished as the 4th, 13th, and 5th QB in 03-05, averaging over 3500 yards and 24 TDS. The entire Seattle offense sunk backwards in 06, but was it the reality or the perception based on injuries. Alexander was injured and only played in ten games, rushing for a career low 3.6 yards per carry. D Jackson was also hurt an played in thirteen games. Branch missed two games, Hackett missed two games, Engram missed nine games, Stevens missed five games, and Hasselbeck also missed four games. We know that Hutchinson was gone and their OL was not nearly as good, but there was a lot of change on a weekly basis for Seattle last year.

Let's get back to the previous few years for Hasselbeck:

02 - 14 gms 267 for 419 (63.7%) and 3075 yds (7.3 ypa) 15 TDs & 10 ints finished as QB 19
03 - 16 gms 313 for 513 (61.0%) and 3844 yds (7.5 ypa) 26 TDs & 15 ints finished as QB 4
04 - 14 gms 279 for 474 (58.9%) and 3382 yds (7.1 ypa) 22 TDs & 15 ints finished as QB 13
05 - 16 gms 294 for 449 (65.5%) and 3455 yds (7.7 ypa) 24 TDs & 9 ints finished as QB 5
06 - 12 gms 210 for 371 (56.6%) and 2442 yds (6.6 ypa) 18 TDs & 15 ints finished as QB 22

Matt's numbers fell off in percentage completion and ypa, but not for fantasy. He was still throwing 30 passes per game and had a high number of TDs, but got injured. Now this year, his ADP is 86 at QB13. His projection is currently QB12 and staffers rank him QB9. His better years are when Seattle ran better and Alexander is poised for a solid come back year. I think Hasselbeck will be a value pick in 07.

Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
He's only played two seasons the full 16 games. When he does play those 16 games, he finished 4th and 5th in fantasy points in the league. So, that is his cap/best. If history holds true for him, he'll probably miss a couple of games and end up around QB 10-12 and be slightly overrated.

Matt Hasselbeck Projections