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Spotlight - QB Rex Grossman, Chicago Bears

Posted on 7/20, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Rex Grossman is a polarizing player. His supporters see a young, talented pocket passer who is just now gaining enough experience to start playing at an optimum level. His detractors see a QB who, were it not for the superior play of the Bears other units, would've been benched midway through the season. The truth, as is often the case, lies somewhere in between.

The Good

• He doesn't get sacked -- Last year he was sacked 4.2% of his pass attempts, 6^th best in the league
• He makes big plays -- He threw 29 passes of 25+ yards, 6^th best in the league
• He is an efficient TD producer -- He converted 4.8% of his passes into TDs, 8^th best in the league

The Bad
 

• He gets intercepted too much -- Last year Grossman was intercepted 4.2% of the time, 29^th worst in the league among qualified passers
• He fumbles too much -- 8 fumbles, 5 lost a year ago
• He was bad near the goal line -- Grossman only converted 30.4% of his passes for TDs within the 10-yard line; 30^th among qualified passers

In terms of fantasy football, Grossman ranked 15^th a season ago despite throwing 20 interceptions and having a handful of games that absolutely cost owners their weekly matchup. In the all-important metric of fantasy points per pass attempt, Grossman acquitted himself slightly above league average (0.483 fantasy points per attempt, 19^th out of 45 qualified passers).

Entering 2007, is there any reason to think the Bears won't stick with Grossman's ups and downs yet again? One, if the team doesn't get off to such a strong start, the pressure will be higher to make a change. Two, with the departure of Thomas Jones, the team has to rely a bit more on the passing game, unless Cedric Benson is able to carry the team on his back (which remains to be seen). Three, can the Bears defense be as stifling as it was a year ago? Those are three good reasons, if you ask me, but then again, the team didn't bring in anyone new to challenge for playing time; so this may be as much about whether the coaches see backup Brian Griese as an upgrade over Grossman. If they don't, all of this analysis may be moot.

OK, so what do you think of Grossman's fantasy prospects for 2007? He was 15^th last year despite throwing 20 interceptions and fumbling 8 times. The Bears are coming off a Super Bowl and are going to do their best not to rock the boat. That means more stifling defense, more ball control play-calling and more asking Grossman to make plays off play action and connect on the deep ball without making TOO many mistakes. His erratic play makes it difficult if not impossible to project top-12 numbers; but it certainly wouldn't be surprising to see him approximate last year's totals.

Positives

• Grossman makes big plays, and converts a high degree of his passes for scores
• The Bears have an intriguing collection of offensive weapons, including Muhsin Muhammad, Bernard Berrian, Desmond Clark and rookie Greg Olsen
• The Bears made no effort to bring in another QB, either via the draft or free agency, which is seemingly a big endorsement that Grossman won't be pulled easily

Negatives

• As with any gunslinger, a high TD percentage is matched by an alarmingly high turnover percentage
• Most league observers were stunned that Grossman wasn't pulled last year, and he may not be so luck if the Bears don't roll to a great record yet again; giving the coaches more leeway in letting him play through his troubles
• The Bears prefer to win games via a strong ground attack and a stifling defense, Grossman won't get many passing attempts to improve his fantasy stock

Final Thoughts

The conditions in Chicago aren't optimal for a passer in the first place, and Grossman's gun-slinging nature exacerbates those conditions. While he threw 23 TDs and was among the best deep ball passers in the league, he all too often made huge mistakes when they mattered most. The Bears were so dominant a year ago that they could afford to "stand by their man" when most wouldn't have. What are the odds they will be as well positioned in 2007? While Grossman has the physical tools to someday deliver top-10 fantasy numbers, he's far more likely to find himself backing up Brian Griese at some juncture. If you're a gambler, one could argue Grossman is worth his current ADP. But if you're looking for a more reliable QB2, Grossman is best left to someone else in your league.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Ministry of Pain:
He's a guy you can get late and he has upside. They have added a very fast TE in Greg Olsen to open up the field. Word is Devin hester is going to be playing WR, that's another speedy WR to go with Bernard berrian. Grossman likely will have a couple more 3 INT and 150 yd days but he also is likely to post 250 yds and 2-3 TD a few times during the season too. Also Cedric benson may have a rough go of it and they may need to pass to take some pressure off their running game.

-X-:
New QB coach Pep Hamilton is frantically working with Grossman to get him to step up in the pocket against a strong rush, which should hopefully result in fewer throws off his back foot and hence, fewer INTs. 3400/25/15+150/2 would be my speculation.

Looking at last year's FF point production, he had 7 awesome games (30+ points), 3 good games (21-29), 1 avg. game (17) and 5 horrible games (one of those being week 17), so he's definitely a solid backup and potentially a starter if his pocket step-up and ball security preparation pays off with increased consistency and fewer turnovers.

I traded for him just before the draft as a backup (along with Jason Campbell) to Brees, also acquired just before the draft, so I do have a vested interest.

greenroom:
I know that Grossman is the Barry Bonds on this board for football. Everyone is just against this kid. Yes this kid had some growing pains last year. Is he a Manning type of QB no, but he did lead his team to the Super Bowl and gets zero credit for it. He did toss 23 TD's last year but you would think from people on this board that he tossed 23 INTS. Its funny people want to focus on the crappy games he had last year but when it is about the great games he had it is all dismissed that it was because of what ever excuse you want to provide. Didn't last year we went thru the he is going to get benched for Griese all season? And did he? With a year of experience under him no way does he get benched for Griese this year. And if the Bears do go to Griese can you say hello to a top 5 draft pick and no playoffs. There is a reason that Griese has never been the man or been able to stay with a team. Bottom line I stand by my thinking of how Grossman will do this year. And the main reason is its a contract year for Grossman.

Rex Grossman Projections