All Spotlights • Trent Green Player Page • MIA Projections • QB Projections • QB Rankings • MIA Team Report

Spotlight - QB Trent Green, Miami Dolphins

Posted on 8/6, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

When is an NFL QB too old to bounce back? That's the question facing the Miami Dolphins, Trent Green and his potential fantasy suitors. At 37 years old, a lot of people seem to think Trent Green is incapable of bouncing back from one substandard season.

First, let's talk a little NFL history...is there a reason to think a 37-year old QB can have fantasy success? Surprisingly, YES. In fact, I was personally surprised to learn that 23 QBs 37+ or older have enjoyed fantasy seasons of at least 200+ fantasy points. Of those, 12 put up numbers that were good enough to project to top-10 fantasy numbers in most seasons:

Rank	First	Last	Year	Age	Comps	Atts	PaYd	YPA	TD	Int	Ru	RuYd	YPR	RuTD	FPTs
1	Steve	Young	1998	37	322	517	4170	8.07	36	12	70	454	6.49	6	421.9
2	Rich	Gannon	2002	37	418	618	4689	7.59	26	10	50	156	3.12	3	362.1
3	Warren	Moon	1995	39	377	606	4228	6.98	33	14	33	82	2.48	0	337.6
4	Y.A.	Tittle	1963	37	221	367	3145	8.57	36	14	18	99	5.5	2	309.2
5	John	Elway	1997	37	280	502	3635	7.24	27	11	50	218	4.36	1	306.6
6	Roger	Staubach	1979	37	267	461	3586	7.78	27	11	37	172	4.65	0	293.5
7	Warren	Moon	1997	41	313	528	3678	6.97	25	16	17	40	2.35	1	277.9
8	Warren	Moon	1994	38	371	601	4264	7.09	18	19	27	55	2.04	0	271.7
9	Doug	Flutie	1999	37	264	478	3171	6.63	19	16	88	467	5.31	1	271.3
10	Warren	Moon	1993	37	303	520	3485	6.7	21	21	48	145	3.02	1	257.8
11	Dan	Marino	1998	37	310	537	3497	6.51	23	15	21	-3	-0.14	1	257.6
12	Brett	Favre	2006	37	343	613	3885	6.34	18	18	23	29	1.26	1	257.2

Now that we've put that to bed, let's turn our attention to Trent Green's situation and why he finds himself unloved in most fantasy circles.

His play last year and his concussion -- In 8 games last year, Green was abysmal. 1,342 yards passing, 7 TDs and 9 Interceptions. He ranked 36th among fantasy passers, and was a huge disappointment to many league owners. But let's not forget that he suffered a massive concussion, one of the worst we've witnessed in years. People seem too obsessed about the lingering impact of said concussion. Remember, Green isn't a guy that's been beaten up year after year after year; this was his first concussion in more than 10 years in the NFL. The Dolphins wouldn't have felt comfortable turning over the franchise to him this year if they weren't convinced his concussion was past him, would they? Legitimacy of Concern: 4 out of 10
His new supporting cast -- Miami is in transition and it seems clear Green is a placeholder until new head coach Cam Cameron finds the guy to build around. The Dolphins aren't exactly chock full o' playmakers with Chris Chambers having awful hands, Marty Booker getting up there in age, and Randy McMichael sent packing in St. Louis. Legitimacy of Concern: 6 out of 10
His offensive line -- Samson Satele appears to be a find as a rookie, and should start at center to begin the season. But beyond Satele, is Vernon Carey up to playing left tackle? Is Rex Hadnot equipped to make the transition to guard? Can L.J. Shelton finally live up to the hype? The good news is Hudson Houck is one of the best O-line coaches in the business, and Cam Cameron knows that the offense begins with a solid front five. Legitimacy of Concern: 5 out of 10 (it's a crap shoot)

Positives

Green enjoyed three consecutive 4,000 yard passing seasons and four straight top-8 fantasy finishes prior to his concussion-addled 2006
He's an accurate veteran that's succeeded in numerous offensive systems (in Washington, in St. Louis and in Kansas City)
Cam Cameron is one of the league's most respected offensive minds

Negatives

Green's concussion was severe, and the Dolphins offensive line may leave him subject to another big hit
The Dolphins offensive weapons are questionable, with Chris Chambers having major hands issues while the other receivers lack elite ability
At 37 years old, the Dolphins aren't building their future around Green, if the team struggles, he could be benched so the team can assess whether Cleo Lemon or John Beck might be the answer

Final Thoughts

On one hand, there's no disputing the impact Green's concussion had on his decision-making last year. On the other hand, one would think the Dolphins medical staff, fully aware of the preexisting condition, would be reasonably confident that he's rebounded completely. If he's genuinely nonplussed by the concussion this year, I think he represents value in that he's going for QB3 ADP yet will deliver middle of the pack QB2 numbers potentially. Is his line going to keep him upright? We shouldn't underestimate the impact the Chiefs line had on his success. Does he have weapons? The Chiefs didn't have a good WR corps, but they had an all world tight end and excellent receivers out of the backfield Will he have a short leash? The Dolphins are in transition, will Cam Cameron pull Green midway through the season if he feels it's time to focus on 2008?

At the end of the day there are just too many questions surrounding Green to recommend him as a viable fantasy starter. I probably lean more toward an optimistic view of Green's chances this year than the consensus, but I would only be willing to bet on that in the context of selecting Green as a late round backup in the hopes he plays well enough to earn some playing time in your lineup.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

SwampDawg:
I think Green will be a solid QB2 and maybe even a spot starer depending on who your #1 QB is. Chambers seems be an every other year player so he is due to pick it up a notch this year. While not a big fan of Ginn his speed (if healthy) will help stretch the field as a 3rd WR. Brown is a good pass catcher out of the backfield and the offensive mind of Cameron should help the offense as a whole.

az_prof:
Green won't have as good of an offensive line, but he will have arguably a better WR corp. Chambers>Kennison; Booker>Samie Parker; Hagan, Hakim, Ginn>KC backups who have never done anything and never will. Brown is a good catching RB and so is Booker, better than LJ at catching. Obviously David Martin is not as good as Gonzo. I don't see any reason to significantly downgrade Green except for his age.

rzrback77:
Trent Green had a major concussion injury in the first game of last season. He set out a couple of months and returned in week 11 and played the rest of the year. Before last season's injury, he had played every game for five straight seasons. His history is that he is a very accurate and effective passer. Consider his recent success with the Chiefs:

02 - 16 gms 287 completions 470 attempts (65.2%) 3690 yards (7.9 ypa) 26 TDs 13 ints QB #8
03 - 16 gms 330 completions 523 attempts (63.1%) 4039 yards (7.7 ypa) 24 TDs 12 ints QB #3
04 - 16 gms 369 completions 556 attempts (66.4%) 4591 yards (8.3 ypa) 27 TDs 17 ints QB #4
05 - 16 gms 317 completions 507 attempts (62.5%) 4014 yards (7.9 ypa) 17 TDs 10 ints QB #8
06 - 8 gms 121 completions 198 attempts (61.1%) 1342 yards (6.8 ypa) 7 TDs 9 ints QB #36

He had a good offensive line in Kansas City and most will say that his major concussion combined with the poor offensive line in Miami is a formula that equals lot of sacks. If he gets sacked often, he may get the "David Carr" shell shock syndrome. But, he is most effective using play action and short routes. Miami has some good options for the short passing game. Ronnie Brown is very sure handed out of the backfield, David Martin (64% over the past two years) is a nice TE option and Booker is also a sure handed guy. I believe that Chambers, although known as "no hands" will surprise this year and have a nice rebound year.

There is opportunity for Green in Miami. It could greatly depend on the kind of start Green and the offense gets off to. They start on the road against Washington and home against Dallas, with their first three games a rather nice matchup for QB success.

I'll go with moderate success for Green is his return from injury under Coach Cameron and the Miami Dolphins. Whatever his production, you risk very little this year on Green, a QB that had finished 8,3 4, and 8 in his four previous injury free seasons, but can now be drafted much later than ever before. There is opportunity for Green in Miami. It could greatly depend on the kind of start Green and the offense gets off to. They start on the road against Washington and home against Dallas, with their first three games a rather nice matchup for QB success.

shadyridr:
I like Green as a sleeper this year. I think you can do well with him grabbing him late as your QB2. The Dolphins have more receiving options in Chambers, Ginn, Booker, and Booker than the Chiefs have had over the years. But their offensive line is nowhere near as good so Green will have to be able to take some hits. Not sure if he will be able to do so but he has been durable before last year so I will give him the benefit of the doubt. I think hes a solid sleeper. Of course, everything can blow up for the Dolphins with Ginn's injury, Chambers DUI, the poor Oline, Martin's injury history, and if Brown doesnt take the next step. But you wouldn't be risking much so it shouldn't matter much if you grab Green late.

Trent Green Projections

SOURCE	PYD	PTD	INT	RSHYD	RSHTD
Jason Wood	0	3475	18	15	25
Message Board Consensus	0	3401	20	13	42