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Spotlight - RB Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers

Posted on 7/20, exclusive to Footballguys.com

David Yudkin's Thoughts

Few people expected the offensive explosion that Frank Gore unleashed in 2006 on what was expected to be a very below average offense in San Francisco. Gore rumbled to 1,695 rushing yards--more than the 49ers produced as a team in 2005--while tacking on another 485 receiving yards for good measure. That was good enough to rank as the number four running back on the season, ahead of many other established stars and uber-studs. With a 5.4 ypc, Gore ranked seventh all time in that category for running backs with at least 300 carries in a season. The team rewarded him with a four-year, $28 million contract extension and he seems primed for a repeat performance in 2007.

Gore put up crazy numbers in high school--similar to a video game--rushing for 2,953 yards and scoring 34 touchdowns as a senior after rushing for 1,559 yards and scoring 32 times as a junior. He attended the University of Miami but struggled with injuries and had beaten out Willis McGahee for the lead running back role before Gore went down with a knee injury. Injuries continued to be his bugaboo, as he's now had multiple surgeries on both his knees and shoulders.

Last year, Gore racked up nine 100-yard rushing games with a season high of 212 yards against the Seahawks. Over his last eight games, Gore totaled 1,023 rushing yards and he's stated that he wants to make a run at the all-time single season rushing record set by Eric Dickerson with 2,105 yards in 1984. Many backs have made some interesting comments in the off-season from year to year about chasing lofty goals and establishing new records. In this case, while unlikely, it does not sound like an insurmountable task.

Prior to last season, there had been 49 times when a RB had amassed 2,000+ yards from scrimmage in a season. How did they do following season?

• 15 had another season with 2,000+ yards
• 20 had a season with at least 1,800 yards
• 28 had a season with at least 1,600 yards
• 30 had a season with at least 1,500 yards
• 35 had a season with at least 1,375 yards
• 7 missed an enormous amount of time (William Andrews, Jamal Anderson, Terrell Davis, Priest Holmes, Garrison Hearst, Edgerrin James, and Barry Foster)
• 4 missed several games in addition to losing 100+ carries (Deuce McAllister, Marcus Allen, Wilbert Montgomery, and Jamal Lewis)

Basically, factoring in the injured players, only three healthy players fell below 1,375 yards from scrimmage (and of those three, Herschel Walker was traded in mid-season).

In terms of repeatability, 31% were able to hit 2,000 yards from scrimmage again the following season. Counting only the healthy players, that number inched up to 39%.

Just over 60% of these backs had at least 1,500 yards the following season. If we eliminate the injured backs, that number shoots up to 79%. But how does that compare, on average, to running backs that did not have 2,000 yards?

Since 1960, there were 773 RB seasons when a player had at least 200 touches and 1,000 yards from scrimmage:

• In 49 of those 773 seasons, a player reached 2,000 yards from scrimmage (6.3%)
• In 253 of those 773 seasons, a player reached 1,500 yards from scrimmage (32.7%)

Compared to the percentages in any given season, it appears that in Year X + 1 the 2,000-yard backs have a much better track record for success.

Another popular hot topic item is the effect of losing offensive coordinator Norv Turner may have on Gore. Some people have speculated that Turner's departure is a major cause for concern and Gore's projections should be downgraded accordingly. Here's how other running backs fared the year after Turner left town:

• Emmitt Smith, DAL: 1,484/381/22
• Stephen Davis, WAS: 1,432/205/5
• LaDainian Tomlinson, SD: 1,683/489/15
• Ricky Williams, MIA: Retired
• LaMont Jordan, OAK: Injured after 5 games

Positives

• Tore it up last year and increased his productivity as the year progressed. Had a monster 5.4 ypc average and had only a couple of clunker games on the season.
• Had a very Tiki Barberesque season with 2,180 yards from scrimmage and 61 receptions.
• San Francisco head coach Mike Nolan has mentioned that Gore could touch the ball 20-25 times a game.

Negatives

• In the real world, Gore's ypc average has no place to go but down, so he will likely need a bigger workload to maintain his production from last season.
• Some people will suggest that the loss of Norv Turner may have a major impact on Gore's production. Others are concerned another RB could vulture goal line carries.
• He tore his ACL in both knees in college and has also had shoulder surgeries that may scare off risk-adverse fantasy owners.

Final Thoughts

Gore may not be able to duplicate his fantastic 2006 numbers, but there is no reason to project a colossal collapse. The 49ers upgraded their defense and that could translate to more offensive plays. They also acquired WR Darrell Jackson and Ashley Lelie, who should help spread the field if he's healthy. As for the potential impact of Norv Turner leaving and Gore's workload dipping, he's still easily San Francisco's biggest offensive weapon and one would have to conclude that they will continue to feed him the ball. The biggest potential production buster would be if he were to get hurt, as even a minor nagging injury could prevent Gore from generating big numbers again.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

kensat30:
Gore is a great player, but I really think he played above his head last year with Norv Turner making him the centerpiece of a bad offense. Gore is almost guaranteed to not reach a high TD level in '07, so you have to bank on another year of huge rushing and/or receiving totals to earn his current top5 ranking. I just don't see it again. First he would have to repeat the incredible 5+ ypc year he had rushing the ball in '06. 5+ ypc on 300 carries is rare enough, but to do it in back to back seasons is a feat even for the all-time greats of the game. Gore is a dual threat, but I also think we will see his receiving drop a little bit as well due to the Alex Smith maturation process. Smith tried to look downfield more than his numbers would suggest last year, but he ended up scrambling to buy time and dumping to Gore because no one could get open. But this year he has new and developing downfield targets in Jackson, Davis, Lelie, and Hill. Bottomline for me, the loss of Norv Turner as OC is a much bigger hit than many anticipate. The guy is a mastermind at offensive playcalling, especially for fantasy RB purposes, and I'm expecting a 20% decrease in effectiveness from the RB position this year. Gore should be good, and a solid #1 fantasy RB, but nowhere near the stud levels many are projecting.

Footballhead:
Norv Turner is being given more credit for Gore's performance than he deserves. Even Alex Smith's performance is attributed to him; but I looked at what SF did with the young guns maturing in their second and third year. What have Norv done since he coached Aikman, Irving, Emmit Smith and Novacek? Gore = Stud = Repeat. He overcame the regular 1500-1600 yds hump required before players make a jump to 2K yds in his second season only.

KING:
Sure it's hard to predict injury, BUT when they already have bad knees, and bad shoulders, you have to address it. I couldn't take gore as a top 5 pick. The niners have already come out saying they want to limit gore's carries. Of course, we here that alot, but in this case i believe it. Gore has had major surgery on both shoulders, and bot knees. either injured or healthy, I don't see over 320 carries. nor do I see him being able to sustain over 5 yards per carry.

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