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Spotlight - TE Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City Chiefs

Posted on 8/6, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

It's never an easy decision to draft a tight end in the first few rounds. Even if you have the projections and VBD computations to prove it's the right move, it just never feels right, does it? At least not for me. With that in mind, it would be easy to look for reasons NOT to like Tony Gonzalez' fantasy prospects this year.

• Changes on the offensive line -- Gone are last year's starting tackles. Gone is potential Hall of Famer Will Shields. In their places? Not so much; certainly not players of equal value. What that could mean is that Gonzo will be forced to stay in and block in pass protection more often. It might also mean that the QBs will be under pressure more, meaning fewer passes thrown to Gonzo on target.
• Changes at quarterback -- Damon Huard played well last year in place of Trent Green, but the Chiefs are giving 2nd year Brodie Croyle every chance to win the job. If Croyle does win the job, will he have chemistry with Gonzo? Will he have the skills to keep drives alive?

Those are legitimate concerns, and I'm not going to berate anyone who uses those excuses to knock Gonzo off their cheatsheet at his expected ADP.

However, I think they're misguided worries. This is TONY GONZALEZ we're talking about. Each and every year, regardless of the head coach, regardless of the QB, regardless of the other weapons in the huddle, Gonzo gets his numbers. He's already a lock for the Hall of Fame, and is quickly approaching all-time numbers for his position:

• Receptions -- 721 (2nd all-time among TEs; 94 short of Shannon Sharpe)
• Receiving Yards -- 8,710 (2nd all-time among TEs; 1,350 yards short of Sharpe)
• Receiving TDs -- 61 (2nd all-time among TEs; 1 TD short of Sharpe)

In case you needed any more reassurance that Gonzo will find a way to deliver fantasy value, look at his year-by-year fantasy ranking:

• 1999: TE2 (Gunther Cunningham = Coach, Elvis Grbac = QB)
• 2000: TE1 (Gunther Cunningham = Coach, Elvis Grbac = QB)
• 2001: TE1 (Dick Vermeil = Coach, Trent Green = QB)
• 2002: TE2 (Dick Vermeil = Coach, Trent Green = QB)
• 2003: TE1 (Dick Vermeil = Coach, Trent Green = QB)
• 2004: TE2 (Dick Vermeil = Coach, Trent Green = QB)
• 2005: TE7 (Dick Vermeil = Coach, Trent Green = QB)
• 2006: TE3 (Herman Edwards = Coach, Trent Green & Damon Huard = QBs)

Positives

• Gonzo has dominated each and every year, finishing in the top 3 at his position in all but one of the last eight seasons
• The Chiefs lack a true WR1, and are uncertain about who will start opposite Eddie Kennison; Gonzo will get targets in every down and distance
• Despite changes to the offensive line, the Chiefs have a solid pair of blocking tight ends (Jason Dunn and Kris Wilson) to keep Gonzo from having to spend too many snaps blocking

Negatives

• The Chiefs haven't decided on a starting quarterback, which leaves one to wonder if the offense might struggle in the early part of the season
• The changes on the offensive line could lead to less efficient execution, which in turn could limit Gonzo's targets
• Herman Edwards runs a conservative ship; the Chiefs won't throw a lot under his watch

Final Thoughts

The 2nd TD Gonzo scores this year will put him 1st all-time at his position. It's been two seasons since Gonzo ranked 1st or 2nd among fantasy tight ends, and I'm betting he won't go a third that way. If Huard wins the QB job, he knows that Gonzalez is his best receiving option. If Croyle wins, there's a lot of NFL history which says a good TE can be a young QBs best friend. Either way, Gonzo's fantasy owners win.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

shadyridr:
I don't think you'll ever see Gonzalez put up the HOF #s he put up in the past again. 1) Hes getting older 2) KCs oline is declining meaning he will have to stay in more to block 3) KCs QB situation is iffy 4) Herm Edwards, Ill never trust this guy for fantasy passing #s 5) Nobody to take away coverage from him in the red zone 6) LJ gets a ton of red zone touches. All that being said he is still a stud TE but more in the 2nd to 4th TE off the board range (probably 4th).

rzrback77:
First off, Tony Gonzalez IS a future Hall of Famer. He has been awesome for a lot of years, finishing 2nd, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 7th, and 3rd among TEs over the past eight seasons. Even in the last four, where two of the seasons were his lowest ranking since 1998, his second year, he caught over 70 passes and had over 900 yards EACH year. It was the TD decrease that moved him down from the top of the TE.

But, he is 31 years old, so a slow down is on the horizon if not this year. Larry Johnson has been the focus of the offense in the red zone. There have only been seven TEs to put up over 100 fantasy points at age 30 and above (Gonzo was the seventh last year). I predict a decrease in 2007, but Gonzo stays in the top five

bjabrad:
If you listen to Herm, LJ is going to be used more often catching passes this season. Factor in the draft of Bowe who is a big strong posession WR (like Irvin). Eddie K's production went down from 68/1102/5 in 2005 to 53/860/5 in 2006. Most people would agree that the OL isn't what it was during Vermeil. Factor in Herm's conservative offensive nature. Factor in question marks at the QB situation but IMO either you've got a good passer from last year (Huard) or you've got a young kid with a cannon arm that will take more chances downfield but will also be sacked more (Croyle). What do you get? Most people would say that Bowe plus LJ as a WR spells more competition for catches in the middle of the field in a conservative Herm offense but I see it differently. I see the possibility of a ball control offense (short passes) very similar to what New England runs except that KC has a superior RB in LJ. Short answer,,,Gonzo will be Gonzo,,,just like always. Top 3 TE production. Keep riding him til he retires.

Tony Gonzalez Projections