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Spotlight - WR Terry Glenn, Dallas Cowboys

Posted on 7/17, exclusive to Footballguys.com

David Yudkin's Thoughts

Terry Glenn has undergone a career revival the past two seasons in Dallas, ranking as the #14 fantasy receiver in total fantasy points from 2005-2006. He ranked 12th and 20th in those years and continues to be a key contributor to the Dallas offense and has now cracked the all-time Top 50 in receptions and receiving yards. Glenn is another example of recent receivers that saw increased production at age 30 (along with the likes of Joey Galloway, Eddie Kennison, Muhsin Muhammad, and Keenan McCardell).

Glenn has always been a talented, if not mercurial, player. He's ranked in the Top 30 wide receivers six times, but his annual year-end rankings have resembled that of a Lotto drawing, ranking from 12 to 100 and all points in between. Earlier in his career, he was more of an upside fantasy pick and came with a lot of associated risk. He'll be 33 to start the season and has become more of a safe pick than a legit Top 10 candidate. Since 2003, Glenn has produced very similar numbers to Isaac Bruce, another seasoned veteran that many have written off and seemingly facing a decline in almost every season.

With Bill Parcells retiring, there will be a new regime in Big D. Wade Phillips takes over as head coach and Jason Garrett will make his debut as an offensive coordinator. The Cowboys are the fifth team that Phillips has coached and his teams have not had any conclusive tendencies with regard to what to expect. The good news for Glenn is that the team paid out a $5 million roster bonus in March, thus cementing his role and standing on the team for this season.

Oddly enough, Glenn played in back-to-back complete seasons for the first time in his career. There's always a chance that he will pull a hamstring or twist an ankle, as he has never really been 100% reliable in terms of staying in the lineup. That may be his Achilles' heel, but other than that he still is a top NFL WR2 and could still produce as a fantasy #2 receiver as well.

Many people have pointed out that Glenn will have competition for targets and production this season, given that the Cowboys offense has Terrell Owens, Jason Witten, Julius, Jones, Marion Barber, and Patrick Crayton. While that may be true, those players have been contributing the last two years as well, so there may not be undo reason for concern.

With Dallas having a potent season last year on offense, one would think that the new coaching staff might be best to leave things well enough alone and only add a few wrinkles here and there. Dallas should again have a top flight offense and put up some big numbers again.

Positives

• Shows no real signs of slowing down (at least production wise). Had his fourth 1,000-yard receiving season, his third with 70 receptions, and his fourth with six TD.
• The Cowboys did not sign or draft any receiving help, so things should be considered status quo (which should keep Glenn involved in the offense mix).
• Seems like a decent value pick with an ADP of WR30, especially considering that the Cowboys ranked sixth in both passing yards and passing TD in 2006.

Negatives

• Always a candidate to get hurt, have a meltdown, or have some bizarre off-field issues. In 11 seasons, he's played in all 16 games in four of them, missing a total of 39 games
• Glenn had his best seasons under Bill Parcells, and with the Tuna gone there's a chance that he could start rubbing people the wrong way again.
• Averaged 8.8 fantasy points with Tony Romo at QB but 10.8 with Drew Bledsoe guiding the team last year. Counting the playoffs, Glenn with Romo dipped to 8.3 points per game.

Final Thoughts

Glenn is getting up there age wise but he really hasn't started showing undo wear and tear. In fact, his production and time spent in the lineup actually IMPROVED the past two seasons. He should again be a decent fantasy pickup and should come a lot cheaper than several other up and coming receivers that will get drafted several rounds before him. The Cowboys should once again have a solid offense with Tony Romo at the helm and should again have Top Ten passing totals.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

redman:
I didn't like how much he dropped off when Romo got into the lineup. I think it's because, as the speedster of the group, he was deep a lot and Romo is better suited to pass to guys running the timing and crossing patterns, like Witten and TO, than to go deep. That was a big part of why he was getting rid of the ball faster and not getting shellacked in the pocket like Bledsoe. I think he's still a good fantasy play, but not like what he was for the first part of 2006 with Bledsoe.

Maurile Tremblay, FBG Staff:
I like the Cowboys passing offense in general a lot this year, and Glenn is nearly their WR1b to Owens' WR1a except around the goal line.

SSOG:
I always hate drafting aging WRs when those WRs have always been reliant on their speed. The big problem is that speed seems to disappear very quickly and seemingly without warning. This season, both Glenn (33) and Galloway (36) fit that description. The problem? Well, they've both fit that description for the last two years, too, and the two have finished 5th, 15th, 12th, and 20th during that span.

I've looked for some signs, any signs, that Glenn might be losing a step. Watching him in games last year, I didn't see any visible signs that he was slowing. Looking at the statistics, his ypc has remained superlative, only twice dipping below 14.5 ypc (never since 2000). During the last three seasons, he has the first, second, and sixth best ypcs of his career, so he's still performing at a remarkably high level. His catch% last year was 64%, which is positively sterling for a guy typically used as a deep threat. To look at some more complex numbers, his yards per target for the last three seasons are 9.5, 9.6, and 10.3- which is truly remarkable. Among WRs with 100+ targets, only Reggie Wayne posted a higher yards per target (9.6) than Glenn's 9.5 last year (Lee Evans was third with 9.4)... and Bledsoe/Romo are no Peyton Manning. Terry Glenn isn't just playing at a high level, Terry Glenn is playing at an elite level, an All Pro level. While it seems ridiculous to suggest that a WR whose game is predicated on speed is actually better at 33 than he was at 26, that is exactly what has happened here. In fact, it could be argued that Terry Glenn, not Terrell Owens, is Dallas's best receiver (Owens is very good in the red zone, but a lot of his numbers are simply a result of quantity of targets- he averaged 7.8 yards per target and had 13 targets inside the 10 yard line compared to Glenn's 7). Owens is marginally better in the red zone, but Glenn is significantly better outside of it.

Now, certain realities aren't going to change, so Glenn is not without his downsides. There's always the chance that he ages suddenly and without any warning whatsoever, although I doubt the likelihood of that. There remains the fact, as well, that Owens isn't going to change his stripes- he's going to continue to demand the ball at every opportunity, which will always keep Glenn's targets low. Still, Glenn is a very reliable veteran who is an elite receiver playing the best football of his career. His per-target numbers are so obscene (and have been that way for so long) that he'll likely present great value even with limited targets... and if his targets increase for any reason at all (say, Owens gets suspended or injured)... then look out, because Glenn could very easily become the surprise WR stud of 2007.

Terry Glenn Projections