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Spotlight - TE Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers

Posted on 8/6, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Will Grant's Thoughts

Saying Antonio Gates is the best TE in fantasy football is almost a wasted effort. Anyone who has played fantasy football at any time over the last three seasons knows that Gates is head and shoulders ahead of the rest of the TEs in the league. In a sport where players tend to break out into 'tiers' where a certain number of players are about the same stat wise, Gates is in a tier by himself.

One need only look at the stats from last season to see why Gates is so valuable.  As a team, the Chargers attempted 466 passes. Gates was targeted 119 of those times (25.5%). As a team, the Chargers had 3412 passing yards and 24 passing TDs. Gates had 924 yards receiving (27%) and 9 receiving TDs (37.5%). Let's not forget that this was with a young, inexperienced QB throwing the ball and LaDainian Tomlinson putting up 2300 yards from scrimmage and 31 TDs.

How does Gates stack up against other TEs? Let's look at the last three seasons:

2004: 111 Targets, 81 receptions, 964 yards and 13 TDs -- Rank #1

2005: 140 Targets, 89 receptions, 1101 yards and 10 TDs -- Rank #1

2006: 119 Targets, 71 receptions, 924 yards and 9 TDs -- Rank #1

The next best TE?

2004: 143 Targets, 103 receptions, 1258 yards and 7 TDs -- Tony Gonzalez

2005: 122 Targets, 65 receptions, 891 yards and 7 TDs -- Jeremy Shockey

2006: 103 Targets, 56 receptions, 780 yards and 8 TDs -- Alge Crumpler

If you compare Gates and his total fantasy points for the year with the fantasy points of the #12 TE in each of those years, you get:

2006: Gates (146) vs. Jason Witten (81)

2005: Gates (170) vs. Ben Troupe (77)

2004: Gates (174) vs. Jeb Putzier (69)

Given those kind of numbers, why wouldn't you want Gates on your team?

Positives

• #1 Fantasy TE for the last three seasons
• 25% or more of the San Diego Passing Game comes his way
• RB, WR and TE from 2006 are all returning (no free agents or rookies to cut into his stats)

Negatives

• LaDainian Tomlinson is still the heart and soul of the offense. Michael Turner is emerging as a solid #2 RB as well
• Upside is limited because the Chargers just don't pass the ball enough. The Chargers have not finished in the top 10 for passing yards since 1992
• He's going to cost you a third round pick if you want him on your team

Final Thoughts

The only real question surrounding Gates is 'How badly do you want him on your team?' Current ADP (as of July 26th) puts Gates at 30 overall. That means you're spending a mid third round pick or higher if you want to have Gates are your starting TE. That's a big risk given that you're going to have to pass up on a second RB or a WR#1 if you want to have Gates on your squad. If you've gone with a QB with either of your first two picks, selecting Gates almost handcuffs you into taking the 'best player available' for the next 5-7 picks because you're going to be so far behind the curve at RB and WR. Personally I think you can let someone else take Gates at that level and focus on landing a second or third tier TE. You give up a lot of control with your draft when you take a TE that early. That being said, if you're going to give up a third round pick on a TE, Gates would be your man. His 'X' value is downright scary, and in TE required leagues, or leagues that award a point per reception, Gates can really bring huge value to your team.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Cowboys#1:
Gates was #1 last year even with LT2 scoring 31 tds. That is just insane. I see his numbers from last year as a floor and expect him to improve with an extra year of Rivers. No more Marty ball, plus Norv wanting to get Gates more involved, plus no real #1 wr = #1 Fantasy TE.

kensat30:
I'm looking at these projected numbers and trying to visualize what WR to compare him to. Now consider that almost all of the "stud" WRs are off the board by the time when Gates is usually taken. You can grab Gates or you can grab a comparable WR.Now the question you have to ask yourself is: how valuable is a TE that can put up WR numbers out of the TE spot. Is there more value at TE later in the draft or at WR? Personally, I feel more confident choosing WRs in the round 8-10 range than I do TEs. Gates to me makes a fine pick in the 3rd round if you are comfortable picking your starters out of WR15-45 range.

H.K.:
Obviously, the man deserves as much recognition as possible.With such huge production out of the TE spot, Gates offers a positional advantage that is unparalleled in this hobby. After rewriting the record book to start his career, Gates has already sewn up the Greatest Of All Time label for TEs but is now being rightfully considered as the Greatest Player Ever. Which in my humble opinion, he is.

Antonio Gates Projections