All Spotlights • DeShaun Foster Player Page • SF Projections • RB Projections • RB Rankings • SF Team Report

Spotlight - RB DeShaun Foster, San Francisco 49ers

Posted on 8/7, exclusive to Footballguys.com

David Yudkin's Thoughts

The Carolina Panthers running back battle is one of this offseason's bigger debates among the fantasy football brethren. In recent draft day exit polls, Williams appears to be the leader in fantasy circles but Foster may be the one leading the way on the actual playing field. While it may be too soon to tell what might happen in the future, it's not too soon to review what has already happened.

Foster is the more experienced of the two, having logged over 700 career touches in a injury marred five year career. After missing extensive time his first three seasons, Foster has only missed three games over the past two years, which for him may be about as healthy as he can get.

Foster has been far from a touchdown scoring machine. Including his post-season numbers, he's managed to score a touchdown every 66.4 touches. By comparison, LaDainian Tomlinson scored once every 13 touches last year.

Foster began last year as the starter even though the Panthers selected Williams with their first round draft pick, and speculation started even then as to when he would take over for Foster. Through the first eight games of the year, Foster did fairly well, totaling 665 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns. But he could only muster another 391 yards from scrimmage and one more touchdown the rest of the way, again getting banged up and missing some time.

That allowed Williams to get additional time on the field, and he showed signs of generating 634 yards of offense over the last eight games of the season (but only seeing the ball a significant amount in four of them). With Williams doing well in limited action, that has prompted some to speculate that Williams will take over as the starter sooner rather than later, and others feel that the two backs will split time throughout the entire season.

However, a RBBC approach has not been something that Carolina has utilized in recent seasons. Here's a running back breakdown spanning through each season since John Fox took over as head coach.

2002

• Lamar Smith, 11 games, 20.9 touches (Injured, followed by)
• Dee Brown, 4 games, 19.8 touches (Injured, followed by)
• Nick Goings, 1 game, 21 touches

2003

• Stephen Davis, 8 games, 25.1 touches (Injured, followed by)
• DeShaun Foster, 1 game, 23 touches
• Davis, 5 games, 24 touches (Injured, followed by)
• Foster 2 games, 23.5 touches (Foster had 1 other game with 18 touches that year)

2004

• Davis, 1 game, 10 touches (Injured, followed by)
• Foster, 2 games, 27 touches (Injured, followed by)
• Nick Goings, 1 game 13 touches
• Davis, 1 game, 16 touches (Injured, followed by)
• Hoover, 3 games, 14.7 touches
• Goings, 8 games, 27.3 touches

2005

• Davis, 9 games, 18.2 touches
• Foster 7 games, 21 touches
• Foster had two other games with an average of 15.5 touches
• Goings had 1 game with 18 touches

2006

• Foster, 9 games, 19.9 touches
• DeAngelo Williams, 3 games, 22 touches
• Foster, 4 games, 17.8 touches
• Williams had one other game with 18 touches

Average number of carries by the primary ball carrier: 21.3.

Fox has been forced to change his primary ball carrier due to injuries, but he really has not rotated who the main guy has been, nor has he switched RBs repeatedly during games very often. Only once has he changed who the starting running back was (substituting Gfoster for Davis in 2005). If Williams and Foster were to split the workload each week, that would be going against the grain compared to what Fox has done so far in his career.

Another thing to consider is that the Panthers rushing attack has been only so-so the past few years. Here were Carolina's team ranking in rushing attempts, rushing yards, yards per carry, and rushing TD since Fox came on board:

• Attempts: 13, 3, 22, 10, 24 (average ranking of 14.4)
• Yardage: 25, 7, 29, 19, 24 (average ranking of 20.8)
• YPC: 31, 17, 28, 29, 19 (average ranking of 24.8)
• Touchdowns: 22, 25, 22, 8, 29 (average ranking of 21.2)

Injuries likely contributed to such a poor showing, but the fact remains that overall the Carolina running game has been less than stellar.

Positives

• Finally earned the starting job at the start of the 2006 season and has more experience than Williams does
• Has shown flashes at times and has made some highlight reel plays in key games
• Some feel that the current coaching administration is loyal to Foster and that will keep him on the field this year

Negatives

• While he may have shown flashes, they have not been very regular occurrences. His career statistics are not overwhelming
• Foster has struggled to stay healthy all the way back to his days at UCLA
• He may never be a dominant impact player. What the team doesn't know about Williams may be more exciting than what they do know about Foster

Final Thoughts

That pretty much gets us to where we are today--with the Panthers seemingly undecided on who their primary ball carrier will be. Depending upon the source, either player could be perched atop the Panthers' RB depth chart. As training camp was starting, Foster was running with the first team offense and Williams was with the second squad. Foster renegotiated his contract this off-season, but it actually gave him more money this year and less money next year so that alone really won't tip the scales either way.

Given that Williams is getting drafted as the #48 player off the board while Foster is going at #105, Foster may be the better value especially if it seems that he will be lining up as the starter on Opening Day.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

BLOX:
It's too bad that he's had such a tough career because he has the talent, but it looks like he will be a career backup very soon. I had hopes (remembering his TD vs Philly in the '03 playoffs) that he'd become a good back, but it's just not happening. I see him getting another lagging injury and losing a lot of playing time to DeAngelo Williams. I hope I'm wrong, but where there's smoke...

shadyridr:
Foster was given every opportunity as the Carolina RB last year and failed. I think he is a solid NFL backup RB but Williams is much more talented. I think Williams will get the full-time role and Foster will be nothing more than a backup RB.

rzrback77:
DeShaun Foster is not getting any hype on the FBG message board this summer. But, the reality of his situation is that he and DeAngelo Williams are much more similar than DWill hype producers will admit. DWill was the 27th overall pick in 06. Foster went early in the second round a few years earlier. DWill is 5-10 and weighs 217, Foster is 6-0 and weighs 220. Both are good receivers and will benefit from an increase in screen passes. Both are more effective running in the open field than straight up the middle and both should benefit from the zone blocking scheme, ONCE IT IS EFFECTIVE.

Last year's stats are also eerily similar:

Foster 14 gms 227 rushes 897 yds (4.0 ypc) 46 targets 32 catches 159 yds 3 total TDs
Williams 13 gms 121 rushes 501 yds (4.1 ypc) 37 targets 33 catches 313 yds 2 total TDs

Williams has been loudly cheered as more explosive, yet with that many more carries, Foster's ypc was almost identical. TDs roughly equal and not good.

The Panther offensive line had many injuries in 06 and you would expect an improved health situation (from the law of averages) and better production, yet they have a new offensive coordinator and are installing a new scheme. Even if that scheme firts their personnel better, will it bring results quickly or will the entire group have to grow into it. I see sharing by these two RBs and not much improvement over last year. If either offers value, it has to be Foster due to the vast difference in their ADP. DWill is currently RB23 and 33rd overall, while Foster is RB41 and 101 overall. If I'm taking one of these two, its Foster.

DeShaun Foster Projections