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Spotlight - WR Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals

Posted on 7/1, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Mike Brown's Thoughts

Larry Fitzgerald was drafted out of the University of Pittsburgh with the third overall selection of the 2004 draft. He had prototype size and receiving skills, and was considered a "can't miss" player who would make a huge impact on the NFL game. The Cardinals thought they were adding an immediate impact player, one who would lead them towards the top of the league's passing rankings.

So far, he hasn't disappointed.

After enjoying a very solid rookie season, he truly went wild in 2005 and finished the year ranked as the number two wide receiver in fantasy football. He scored a touchdown in ten different games, and had seven 100-yard performances to his credit. Fitzgerald was remarkably consistent, especially for such a young and inexperienced player, putting up at least 9.5 fantasy points in all but two games.

In 2006, many prognosticators felt he would build upon his sterling '05 campaign and stake his claim as perhaps the best wide receiver in football. What happened instead was that his performance regressed a bit. That regression was only exacerbated by a significant hamstring injury suffered in Week 5. Originally expected to miss anywhere from two to five weeks, Fitzgerald ended up missing the next three games. Upon his return, he picked up where he left off by hauling in six receptions for 80 yards in his first game back. Still, the Cardinals, expected to finally be a force in the NFC West, were an utter disappointment and head coach Denny Green was fired. Brought in to replace him was Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt. While it has been rumored that Fitzgerald wasn't very pleased with Green's termination, Whisenhunt brings a reputation for being an innovative and creative offensive mind. His Steeler teams weren't necessarily an offensive juggernaut, but he was able to adapt his schemes to fit the personnel.

Positives

• Fitzgerald is one of the most physically talented receivers in the entire league. At age 23, he already has a 100-catch season and three top-30 fantasy rankings under his belt. He's legit.
• The Arizona offense is expected to receive a boost in terms of overall production this season. While that could mean more rushing attempts, it also could mean more red zone scoring chances for a team that will be able to sustain drives.
• After missing several games to injury, Fitzgerald came back with a vengeance over the season's second half. After his return, he put up numbers that prorate out to 88 receptions, 1220 yards, and 8 touchdowns over a full season. In other words, he was already fully healed in-season.

Negatives

• Anquan Boldin is still around in Arizona. As long as there is another Pro Bowl caliber player lining up across the field, there will always be another big-play option to contend with for catches.
• Matt Leinart, for all of his fame and accolades, is still just a second-year quarterback with 11 career touchdown passes to his name. If he isn't ready to lead this offense from the outset, it'll affect the entire skill position set.
• Fitzgerald missed some time last year due to a hamstring injury. At this point, it would be unfair and premature to call him injury prone. Still, any time a player (especially a wide receiver) misses a significant portion of the season with a muscle injury, it's cause for at least some worry.

Final Thoughts

Each year, every coach in the league says they want to run the ball more. Few actually make a drastic philosophical difference, even when joining a new organization. A lot of the worry with incoming head coach Ken Whisenhunt is that he'll take the air out of the football and turn the Cardinals into a smash-mouth organization. While it's true that Whisenhunt's offenses ranked dead last in pass attempts in 2004 and 2005, they suddenly moved up to 15^th in the league in 2006. It could have been that Pittsburgh was playing from behind more, it could have been that they didn't have that two-headed monster in the backfield to run the way he would've liked. But whatever the reason, his team finished near the middle of the NFL pack with a passing game that is solid but doesn't feature anywhere near the star power he'll have in Arizona. The Cardinals will try to run the football as much as they can...and then they'll do what they do best -- throw.

Additionally, even if the Cardinals attempt fewer passes this year, that might not have the hugely negative impact on Fitzgerald that some may think. Those fewer balls will be spread amongst all receivers, with the running back targets likely taking the biggest hit percentage-wise (because they'd be running it so much more, it's unlikely they'd be as heavily involved in the passing game). What's more, if the Cardinals ARE able to run the ball much more frequently, it must mean that it's because it is effective (a team can't continue running the ball just because they WANT to; they have to be experiencing some measure of success with it). And if the Cardinals are running the ball more effectively, then it stands to reason that they'll be able to throw it more effectively with less pressure on the passing game. So while the quantity of passes may be less, the quality will be much more.

It is my belief that Fitzgerald will be just fine, and should put up stats closer to his 2005 season than to 2006. As mentioned above, the offense will still have enough firepower that he'll get plenty of yards and touchdowns even if the number of receptions decreases. I strongly believe that Matt Leinart will join the upper echelon of signal-callers this year, and Anquan Boldin will only help Fitzgerald by being across the field from him. Let the other teams decide who they want to put their best cover cornerback on; it matters little since each of these guys is a physical monster that can and will have their way with just about any DB in the league.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Carter Can Fly:
I am fascinated with the love Fitzgerald gets in the fantasy world. Can someone please tell me why he is better in dynasty than Boldin??? Boldin is only 3 years older than Fitz. So although age is something you do need to consider in dynasty Boldin is only 26 years old. Fitz is a man child for sure, but I will let somebody else grab him earlier then I think he deserves to be taken. Fitz is a good red zone guy, but who knows how that plays out in Arizona. Also, Boldin who can be drafted later will get better production than Fitz.

Spartans Rule:
Last year, Arizona threw all of 17 TD passes as a team. According to the projections in this thread, Fitzgerald is going to come close to that all by himself this year, despite the fact that he hauled in only 6 TDs in 13 games last year, and in 2005, when Arizona put up one of the most imbalanced, pass-heavy seasons in the history of the NFL, he caught 10 TDs.

I must be missing something. Is Ken Whisenhunt installing the run-and-shoot? Did he bring Jeff Hartings and Alan Faneca with him from Pittsburgh, so that the Cardinals now have a top 5 line? What I see is an inexperienced QB operating behind what is still a below-average line in a new system that will take time to adjust to and be more run-oriented, leaving fewer balls available in the already fierce competition for catches.

David Yudkin:
Larry Fitzgerald is currently ranked as the #3 fantasy wide receiver, but there are telltale signs that point to him ending the year well below that ranking. People remember Fitzgerald's stellar 2005 campaign when he finished as the #2 fantasy receiver, but much has changed in Arizona since then. While the Cardinals seem to be on the rise, the changes being implemented in the dessert DO NOT bode well for Fitzgerald. Since 2000, the #3 ranked fantasy wide receiver has averaged 206 points--which works out to 12.9 fantasy points per game over a 16-game season.

Fitzgerald has been a beast in his young career--the problem being that his highest production levels have come with KURT WARNER at quarterback. Fitzgerald has not been anywhere near as productive with other quarterbacks leading the offense. He's been roughly 25% less productive without Warner:

Larry Fitzgerald Projections