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Spotlight - QB Brett Favre, Green Bay Packers

Posted on 6/10, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Brett Favre drops back...he surveys the field...he finds Randy Moss down the left sideline...TOUCHDOWN RANDY MOSS! Admit it, a LOT of people were hoping to hear that kind of thing this season, unfortunately it didn't happen. As you know, Randy Moss was instead traded to New England where he'll help make Tom Brady as good a fantasy QB as he is a real-world passer. But that's a spotlight for another time.

No one is more disappointed in the Packers inability to acquire Moss than Brett Favre. He's become more vocal in his criticisms of the team in recent years, perhaps reflecting a frustration with the team's willingness to build toward the future when he knows his only chance of winning the Lombardi Trophy is NOW.

The good news for Favre and fantasy owners is that the cupboard isn't bare. Donald Driver has quietly become one of the leagues' most consistent receivers. He's notched 1,200 yards receiving in each of his last three healthy seasons. Meanwhile, Greg Jennings acquitted himself well opposite Driver as a rookie and should be that much better in his second season. While TE Bubba Franks is on the downward phase of his career arc, the team is high on Donald Lee (who's been running with the 1^st team) and rookie Clark Harris. If the Packers can get some contribution from young WRs Ruvell Martin, James Jones and David Clowney; Favre has plenty of weapons.

The bad news is Favre showed unquestionable regression last season. Consider:

• His completion percentage (56%) was the lowest of his 16-year career
• His 6.3 yards per attempt was tied for a career low, and his worst in more than a decade
• He failed to throw more TDs than INTs for the 2^nd consecutive season
• His 18 TD passes tied his career low as a starter, and was his worst output since 1992

So what should we make of Favre entering this season? Is he someone that can help your fantasy team or someone best avoided?

It all depends on your expectations. Remember, DESPITE one of his worst passing seasons in memory, Favre still finished as the 8^th best fantasy QB last year (using FBG scoring). If you feel Favre is likely to match last year's production, he offers EXCEPTIONAL value as your QB2 in the mid rounds. You would likely be drafting starter quality output as a backup. On the other hand, if you wait too long to draft a QB this year and end up settling for Favre as your starter, you're likely putting yourself behind the 8-ball because in most weeks he probably won't present a favorable matchup.

But what if the Packers go with a youth movement? I've heard several pundits posit that Brett Favre may be benched this year if the Packers fall out of the playoff hunt. With his increasing disdain for the current management and his age, some wonder if the Packers could sit the legend in favor of Aaron Rodgers. While I understand the logic of asking the question, I just don't see it happening for several reasons.
 

1) The NFC looks competitively balanced -- Remember that last year 8-8 New York made the playoffs and there's no team outside of Chicago that seems like a lock for the playoffs. It would take a devastating start to push the Packers into a "look to the future" mode.

2) Favre is a legend -- If the Packers wanted to start anew, it would have come this offseason. Favre didn't give them any reason to think he wouldn't be willing to play for another team; and yet there was never any serious consideration of such a move. By bringing him back, the Packers signal Favre remains the team's best chance to win. To bench him unceremoniously would be akin to spitting on arguably the best player in Packers history.

3) He's chasing the record books -- Favre is 3,862 yards away from breaking Dan Marino's all-time passing yards mark; which should be well within his grasp if he plays a healthy, full 16-game schedule. He also needs 7 touchdown passes to take over the top spot all-time. Can you imagine a scenario where Favre is a few hundred yards short of the all-time mark yet the team decides to bench him to rebuild? It would be a P.R. nightmare.

While the days of Favre being a top-5 fantasy QB are almost surely over, he's not at all a fantasy liability as your backup and spot starter. The Packers defense has improved, but the running game has serious question marks which means Favre should be called upon to throw early and often. Don't count on 600+ attempts again, but anything less than 550 would be surprising.

Positives

• Despite career lows of 18 TDs and 56% completions, Favre finished as the 8th best fantasy QB; by virtue of great yardage totals and playing a full 16-games
• Even if the Packers fall out of the playoff race, Favre needs a full season of passing to eclipse Dan Marino; don't count on the team withholding that record from him
• The Packers offense is more talented than some believe, with Greg Jennings projecting as a solid WR2 and a young RB corps looking to prove themselves behind a decent offensive line

Negatives

• Favre finished as the 14th best QB on a per game basis last year, which suggests he's a better backup than fantasy starter
• The team failed to improve the passing attack in the offseason, meaning the team could be desperately thin if either Driver or Jennings get hurt
• Favre throws a ton of interceptions, so in leagues where INTs count heavily against you, he isn't as viable an option

Final Thoughts

Brett Favre remains an iron man and, as long as he's under center, is going to throw 3,500+ yards and his share of TDs. Last year, he scored the 14th most fantasy points per game among QBs, which is about where fantasy leaguers should project him this year. That puts Favre as a solid fantasy QB2 and decent spot starter when the matchup permits. Given his current ADP (QB22), Favre offers real value in the middle rounds, as has been the case each of the last few years.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

shadyridr:
Used to be one of the best QBs in FF. Now is one of the best values in the draft year in and year out. He is always drafted later and he is a lock to finish in the top 12. Has 2 very good WRs to throw to but the depth behind Driver & Jennings is not good. Also, losing one of the best screen RBs in football cant help matters especially considering he is being replaced by 2 green RBs. Finally the Packs defense seems to be much improved meaning alot less bombing away for Favre. All that said I still expect him to put up QB10-12 #s.

BLOX:
Green Bay's receivers are not that bad behind Driver and (a healthy) Jennings. Martin and Holiday got some playing time and were making some plays late in the season. Jones has looked pretty good for a rookie in camp. Then there are the two really big questions in Ferguson and Koren Robinson. If Ferguson stays healthy and can produce like he should (in training camp) the Packers will have a very good #3 receiver. If he tweaks anything and misses time though, Martin is ready to go as the #3 and Fergie will be cut. Robinson has never really lived up to his hype, but he's gone 9 months on his program now without drinking and that's a good sign. Was that the reason he was underacheiving? No one knows, but there's the possiblilty to have a very nice WR there for Favre.

rzrback77:
Brett Favre is yet another example of why grabbing value at other positions and waiting on a QB generally produces a better team. FBG projections have him at QB #16 (Dodds), staff has him ranked 15th. By FBG scoring, he has finished 11-10-6-13-8 over the past five seasons. I actually believe that he will play better this year as Green Bay's team continues to improve, but even if no improvement, he has averaged 3775 yards and 25 TDs recently.

Brett Favre Projections