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Spotlight - WR Lee Evans, Buffalo Bills

Posted on 6/10, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Chris Smith's Thoughts

Lee Evans is without question one of the most underrated wide receivers in the NFL today. Saddled with a quarterback still learning his craft in J.P. Losman, Evans still managed to finish as the 7^th best fantasy receiver a season ago.

Yes, that's right!

Evans finished as the 7^th best fantasy receiver in 2006 with 1,292 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. He was 6^th in receiving yardage ahead of superstars such as Torry Holt, Terrell Owens and Steve Smith.

This just in... Evans is the real deal.

Was last season an aberration or a sign of things to come?

Evans was consistently ranked outside of the top-twenty in preseason last season despite flashes of brilliance in his first two seasons. At question a year ago was not Evans talent or his potential but rather that ability of J.P. Losman as a legitimate NFL quarterback. However Losman exceeded expectations with a pretty good season and Evans became his favorite target.

Highlights of the 2006 Campaign

7^th best fantasy receiver with 177.2 fantasy points
Averaged 15.8 yards per reception
Scored a touchdown in each of the final four games
Had just four games with fewer than 50 receiving yards
Against the Texans in week eleven, Evans had the 4^th highest receiving yard total of all-time. He finished the game with 265 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns

Highlights so far of his 3-year career

Averaging 16.2 yards per reception
Scored 24 touchdowns in three seasons
Has been in the top-30 at the receiver position in all three seasons
Has five multiple-touchdown games
Has twelve 90+ receiving yard games

Reasons for optimism in 2007

Now a proven veteran: Evans put up really good numbers in his first two seasons and great numbers last year. Now he is entering year four and is a legitimate #1 target in the NFL. It often takes receivers a few years to hit their stride and at 26 years old, Evans is now entering the prime of his career.
QB J.P. Losman continuing to improve: Once a huge question mark, Losman really began to make positive strides a season ago and should continue to grow as a player in 2007. As Losman continues to grow as a player the better it will be for Evans production.
Clear-cut #1 target in Buffalo: There is no question whatsoever that Evans is the top dog for the Bills. He had 892 more receiving yards than his next nearest teammate and caught 30.6 percent of the completed passes.
Evans has a great blend of speed, quickness and route-running ability.

Possible worries this season

The lack of a true #2 could cause problems: Evans is easily the most talented receiver on the roster. After him, Peerless Price, Roscoe Parrish and Josh Reed all share receptions and none managed to stand out from the pack as a 2^nd option in the passing game. Defenses more and more often may slide double-team coverage over on Evans daring the other receivers to make plays

A reduction of his yards per reception: Evans is explosive as his huge yards per reception has illustrated over his first three seasons. However looking at the history of several players, there is some worry that his YPR could drop by a point or two this season... Here are some past examples.

Randy Moss: First three seasons -- 18.4 / Fourth year -- 15.0 / Fifth year -- 12.7

Chris Chambers: First three seasons -- 16.0 / Fourth year -- 13.0 / Fifth year -- 13.6

Torry Holt: First three seasons -- 17.6 / Fourth year -- 14.3 / Fifth year 14.5

Interesting Tidbit

Since 1995, only 10 receivers have started their career with three straight 100+ fantasy point seasons. Looking at the list below, I'd say that Evans is in very distinguished company with the exception of one player who was a shocker.

Positives

Incredible mix of speed, quickness and route-running
Has a real nose for the endzone (24 touchdowns in first three seasons)
Great with the ball in his hands (16.2 YPR)
Has great chemistry with QB J.P. Losman

Negatives

May prove difficult to keep his yards per reception average in the 16+ range
QB J.P. Losman still has a lot to improve in his overall game and there is still a worry of him regressing somewhat this season
No true #2 receiver could result in defenses rotating their coverage scheme to shut down Evans
Isn't blessed with great size (only 5'10 and 197 pounds)

Final Thoughts

What makes Evans so difficult to contain is his explosive quickness and ability to cut on a dime. He runs superb routes and knows what to do with the ball once it is in his hands. There is no real reason to believe that Evans cannot slide into a top-ten position once again this season. He has the ability to streak down the field away from defenders and also take a five yard slant pattern to the endzone simply due to his wheels. Expect more of the same from Evans in 2007.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Jon Moore:
Obviously one of the fastest receivers in the league today, and arguably one of the most talented. While Losman did show improvement, 1200+ yards with him at qb is quite the accomplishment. You have to figure Losman should show at least some improvement yet again this year, which has to mean a bump for Evans, because who else is gonna catch 'em?

Ministry of Pain:
The Buffalo offense is not one of the better ones in the league at the moment and he gets no help from anyone lining up opposite him. I think Lee Evans will be a great WR2 on most rosters, a better WR3/flex, and he just might take a small step back in terms of stats. Players don't have to improve every year and coming off 1,200 receiving it might be a little slide for him this season.

SSOG:
When I start looking at WRs, I usually start with last season's targets and the WR's career catch%s. I especially like to compare production to targets to see who is being efficient with the opportunities they are given. In this respect, Lee Evans is like the anti-Chris Chambers. Where Chambers always did relatively little per target and made up for it through the sheer bulk of targets, Evans really does make the most of the opportunities he is given. Last season, Evans was the 7th ranked fantasy WR, despite ranking 15th in number of targets. His 1.29 points per target was great, ranking him above fantasy studs like Steve Smith (1.26), Chad Johnson (1.17), and Torry Holt (1.00), and on par with fantasy uberstuds like Terrell Owens (1.30), Marques Colston (1.32), and Reggie Wayne (1.35). In fact, the only WRs who were clearly more efficient than Lee Evans last year (min 100 targets) were Javon Walker (1.40), Marvin Harrison (1.41), and surprisingly enough, the chronically underrated Darrell Jackson (1.39). And it's also worth noting that Evans accomplished this feat despite playing with probably the worst QB of the bunch.

Lee Evans Projections

SOURCE	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Chris Smith	0	0	85	1250	9
Message Board Consensus	0	0	81	1246	9