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Spotlight - WR Braylon Edwards, Cleveland Browns

Posted on 7/10, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Braylon Edwards has the chance to be one of the better value picks at the WR position this year. His current ADP of WR26 implies he'll do no better than match last season's numbers, which I believe is a misguided assumption for a number of reasons.

Fantasy owners are a fickle bunch and many forget just how talented Edwards is, or how high expectations were for him coming out of the University of Michigan. At 6'3", 206 pounds with top notch speed, Edwards was considered the total package. He had the discipline to run crisp routes, had glue-like hands and the body control to make difficult grabs in traffic and across the middle. Unfortunately for Edwards and his fantasy owners, an injury truncated his rookie season. Last year there were some questions about his health at the start of the season, yet he managed to play all 16 games.

Reasons why Edwards will exceed his ADP:

• The Quarterback Situation -- The Browns drafted Brady Quinn and will make him the face of the franchise. It's true he may not start the 2007 season, but you can be sure that if Derek Anderson and/or Charlie Frye play the way they did last year, Quinn will come in in the 2nd half of the season and can't play worse.
• The Coaching Staff -- New offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski will bring more balance to an offensive attack that lacked an identity a season ago. While I'm not ready to say Chudzinski is a great offensive coordinator, I am ready to say he's better than the combination of Jeff Davidson and Maurice Carthon.
• The Offensive Line -- What does the offensive line have to do with Edwards you ask? Quite a bit. The Browns offensive line was a mess last year and that completely derailed the offense. The Browns QBs had no time to make their reads, and the running game was non existent. With the selection of Joe Thomas, the big free agent acquisition of Eric Steinbach, and the potential return of LeCharles Bentley (admittedly a long shot), this Browns line will be better. And that means a more consistent, cohesive offensive attack.
• The Schedule -- According to our Ultimate Strength of Schedule, the Browns WR corps enjoys a very favorable schedule this season.

Positives

• Edwards is physically on par with the elite playmakers at his position
• Almost every facet of his situation appears improved from a season ago; including his offensive coaches, his QB situation and the overall productivity of the offense (thanks in part to an improved line)
• Edwards faces an easy schedule and is, clearly, the team's best receiving option especially if TE Kellen Winslow remains hobbled

Negatives

• The Browns remain unsettled at the QB position, which could mean inconsistency for the entire passing attack
• New OC Rob Chudzinski doesn't have a tough act to follow, but his inexperience as an NFL play-caller hardly makes him a sure thing
• If Kellen Winslow is gimpy, opposing defenses will be able to game plan against Edwards with regularity

Final Thoughts

Put Braylon Edwards on a top notch passing team and he would be a top-10 fantasy prospect. While the Browns situation is too unsettled to predict that kind of performance, I would be shocked if Edwards didn't improve on last year's numbers. Those numbers were good enough to finish WR26, which means I'm very comfortable looking at Edwards to push into the top 20 at his position barring injury. Given his current ADP, that means Edwards is a solid mid-round value pick.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Rev:
Edwards had 61 catches for 884 yards and 6 TDs last season. This was the 1st year after the knee injury, meaning that his production should be in for a modest increase at the very least, with the potential of a significant increase. Having a rookie QB may slow Edwards production, but in light of Edwards superior talent and past production in subpar circumstances, it would be difficult to predict anything less than 70 for 900 and 8.

lions327:
You have to factor in the Browns adding Joe Thomas and Eric Steinbach to their line. HUGE difference in both the passing game and the running game. Maybe they won't have 3rd and longs all game long and will not be able to drop back in deep zones. The QB's should have more time to throw because of the line being better I have to think Frye will QB part of the season, and this being his 3rd year, he should improve, especially with the line being better. Braylon was not 100% healthy last year, and still put up decent numbers for a 2nd year WR. I have to believe this, plus the usual 3rd year progression should lead to much better numbers, regardless of who the QB is.

BGP:
Braylon Edwards tore his ACL on December 4th, 2005. Edwards shocked everyone by coming back from surgery to get on the field at the start of the 2006 season. However, playing and being 100% healthy are two different things. It was obvious to those who watched Braylon Edwards play on a regular basis that he was not the same player that he was before the injury. he looked slow - dreadfully slow at times.

The general rule of thumb is that it takes an NFL player two years to fully recover from a major knee injury (if he ever recovers at all). While some have bounced back sooner, there is no reason to expect Edwards to be one such case. It will be two years in december. Basically, one should expect that Edwards will not be a top fantasy WR this season.

As I said when Edwards blew out his knee, we won't be able to judge him until we see him play in 2008. After his 2008 season is complete, THEN we will be able to assess where his career is at as an NFL WR and a fantasy prospect for the 2009 season.

At best, perhaps you could be looking at a sleeper WR for 2008. But not this year. Not with a rookie QB.

Braylon Edwards Projections